If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020?
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  If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020?
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Author Topic: If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020?  (Read 14203 times)
Seneca
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« on: January 08, 2016, 06:46:53 PM »

Assume bad things happen in 2016 scaring white people so much that they vote for Trump en mass. The map looks something like this.



Presumably Republicans do quite well in Congressional and other elections, strengthening their control in the Senate and in state governments across the country. What happens next (after Atlas liberals collectively faint)?

* Does Trump acquiesce to the Republican establishment and sign off on some kind of "Ryan Plan" that eviscerates social spending while slashing taxes for the wealthy, or does he stick to his idiosyncratic guns and clash with Congressional GOP leadership?

* Will Democrats make big gains in the 2018 midterm elections (despite a map which forces them to be quite defensive)?

* Does Trump get primaried in 2020? If so, by whom?

* Which Democrats run for President in 2020?
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2016, 07:08:31 PM »

-On domestic policy, I think he would spar a bit with the establishment, but let's not forget that (no matter your opinion of him) he's a very effective dealmaker. He would probably manage to get thins done, but in a way that makes him look like he's fighting the establishment.

-I imagine that Democratic gains would probably be mitigated by an unfavorable Senate map. If the GOP gains in the House in 2016 are as large as the map would suggest and they also hold their competitive seats, the Dems could have more inroads there.

-Whether he would get primaried depends on how popular he is: if his comments continue and make him unpopular, I could see the establishment fielding a challenger. However, a nasty primary would damage them badly going into the general, so I suspect they would just work to get him reelected.

-The 2020 field for Democrats would be quite large. I imagine that most people that opted out this year (Booker, Gillibrand, possibly Warren) would get in. If Castro is the VP pick this time, he could run. If Kamala Harris is elected to the Senate, she would also be an option. I think that, pending reelection, Tammy Baldwin would be an interesting choice. Andrew Cuomo could also go for it, but he doesn't seem like a good pick. I could also see Brian Schatz, Steve Bullock, or Chris Murphy running, depending on what they do during Trump's term.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2016, 10:47:28 PM »

Trump would not win WI, MN or NH even in a landslide.
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Seneca
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2016, 11:47:47 PM »

Trump would not win WI, MN or NH even in a landslide.

But he would win Michigan? Thanks for the input!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2016, 10:23:16 AM »

Assume bad things happen in 2016 scaring white people so much that they vote for Trump en mass. The map looks something like this.




No way does Trump win either Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. Michigan has a larger percentage of blacks than any non-Southern states other than Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia (I now consider Virginia a Northern state). Of course this is no landslide, basically Kerry 2004 with New Mexico and Pennsylvania exchanged. Minnesota swings less than any other state, and the GOP is now toxic in Wisconsin. 

I see Donald Trump as a Republican mirror image (except for being a rake) of Jimmy Carter, an 'outsider' who has very specific ideas of how to change America and unable to achieve them -- and having no Plan B. There might be something to running the federal government like a business -- except that justice, diplomacy, welfare, and the Armed Services cannot be run on profit-and loss bases.

The only effective President who had little-to-no experience in elected office who was at all effective since the Civil War was Dwight Eisenhower.  Ike at the least had the difficult task of lobbying for funds in a Depression economy with a war-loathing populace, so he got some idea of how Congress works. Trump has no legislative experience, and no experience as a government executive even in a cabinet position.

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They might have done well in 'Congressional and other' elections in 2016 -- but he will have to get miracles and dodge any possible economic downturn in 2017 and 2018 to avoid a scenario analogous to 2006 for Congressional Republicans. Get an economic downturn and have no idea of how to stop it except doing more of the same to intensify hardships for potential voters, and the Democrats will have elections like those of 1930.   

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Donald Trump is a crony capitalist. If he should sign off on the destruction of the welfare state while cutting taxes for the super-rich, then he could be Herbert Hoover, Version 2.0

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Even poor, white Christian fundamentalist Protestants in the South have their limits. An image of America which looks like some old Bible-related movies of the 1950s in which amoral elites indulge themselves with no limits while the masses suffer extreme poverty will create plenty of opportunities for Democrats.   

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Republicans would have nobody to primary him in 2020 if the economy goes sour. If the situation is more like 1980 in which Donald Trump has an administrative mess and no clue of how to solve things, then he will be weakened in a primary. Either way he loses. See "1932" and "1980".

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FDR, Version 2.0... someone who has resisted the national trend of austerity for the poor and enhanced indulgence for elites, should America have the start of a Great Depression, Version 2.2. If it is simply an administrative mess, then look to Barack Obama, Version 2.0 as a memory of the last somewhat-effective President.

...imagine an electoral map in which the Democratic winner wins all but roughly 50 electoral votes, because that is what 1932 and 1980 maps were.  Basically take all states that Carter won in 1976 and Obama won in 2008 and add Arizona.


   
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Seneca
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2016, 10:55:21 AM »


Holy hell are you a hack. Just because you can't imagine a thing happening does not preclude it from happening. As a white person you may not be aware of this, but white people are extremely jumpy, easily scared by the smallest of things. Think of all the white people who roll their windows up when they have to get off the interstate in a less-white part of town. Those people, collectively, are Trump's ceiling. 70ish% of the white vote breaking to Trump produces a map like mine.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2016, 11:33:44 AM »


Holy hell are you a hack. Just because you can't imagine a thing happening does not preclude it from happening. As a white person you may not be aware of this, but white people are extremely jumpy, easily scared by the smallest of things. Think of all the white people who roll their windows up when they have to get off the interstate in a less-white part of town. Those people, collectively, are Trump's ceiling. 70ish% of the white vote breaking to Trump produces a map like mine.

Right.

But getting to 70%ish is basically impossible.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2016, 12:34:00 AM »

-On domestic policy, I think he would spar a bit with the establishment, but let's not forget that (no matter your opinion of him) he's a very effective dealmaker. He would probably manage to get thins done, but in a way that makes him look like he's fighting the establishment.

-I imagine that Democratic gains would probably be mitigated by an unfavorable Senate map. If the GOP gains in the House in 2016 are as large as the map would suggest and they also hold their competitive seats, the Dems could have more inroads there.

-Whether he would get primaried depends on how popular he is: if his comments continue and make him unpopular, I could see the establishment fielding a challenger. However, a nasty primary would damage them badly going into the general, so I suspect they would just work to get him reelected.

-The 2020 field for Democrats would be quite large. I imagine that most people that opted out this year (Booker, Gillibrand, possibly Warren) would get in. If Castro is the VP pick this time, he could run. If Kamala Harris is elected to the Senate, she would also be an option. I think that, pending reelection, Tammy Baldwin would be an interesting choice. Andrew Cuomo could also go for it, but he doesn't seem like a good pick. I could also see Brian Schatz, Steve Bullock, or Chris Murphy running, depending on what they do during Trump's term.
The elites would never let Baldwin win. Many in her party wouldn't support her. she's completely unelectable
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2016, 10:43:46 AM »

-On domestic policy, I think he would spar a bit with the establishment, but let's not forget that (no matter your opinion of him) he's a very effective dealmaker. He would probably manage to get thins done, but in a way that makes him look like he's fighting the establishment.

-I imagine that Democratic gains would probably be mitigated by an unfavorable Senate map. If the GOP gains in the House in 2016 are as large as the map would suggest and they also hold their competitive seats, the Dems could have more inroads there.

-Whether he would get primaried depends on how popular he is: if his comments continue and make him unpopular, I could see the establishment fielding a challenger. However, a nasty primary would damage them badly going into the general, so I suspect they would just work to get him reelected.

-The 2020 field for Democrats would be quite large. I imagine that most people that opted out this year (Booker, Gillibrand, possibly Warren) would get in. If Castro is the VP pick this time, he could run. If Kamala Harris is elected to the Senate, she would also be an option. I think that, pending reelection, Tammy Baldwin would be an interesting choice. Andrew Cuomo could also go for it, but he doesn't seem like a good pick. I could also see Brian Schatz, Steve Bullock, or Chris Murphy running, depending on what they do during Trump's term.
The elites would never let Baldwin win. Many in her party wouldn't support her. she's completely unelectable
That's probably true, but most people would have said the same of Trump.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2016, 12:42:38 PM »

Isn't Baldwin gay? There's nothing wrong with that, but purely for the sake of contemporary politics, Democrats would eventually have to start running candidates that have some viability in the South, and at the very least, don't alienate even more white voters there.

This bum rush of identity politics since 2008, to me, is wonderful, but it's also the equivalent of taking a flamethrower the Democratic party in the Old South / rural states.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2016, 01:18:22 PM »

Trump isnt winning in a landslide
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2016, 01:34:39 PM »

Isn't Baldwin gay? There's nothing wrong with that, but purely for the sake of contemporary politics, Democrats would eventually have to start running candidates that have some viability in the South, and at the very least, don't alienate even more white voters there.

This bum rush of identity politics since 2008, to me, is wonderful, but it's also the equivalent of taking a flamethrower the Democratic party in the Old South / rural states.

Baldwin is a lesbian, yes. However, it's not impossible that homosexuality is mainstream enough by 2020 that she's viable in those regions.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2016, 06:20:17 PM »

Baldwin is a lesbian, yes. However, it's not impossible that homosexuality is mainstream enough by 2020 that she's viable in those regions.

Right. Probably not impossible, but 2020 seems a bit too soon. Once the Millennial generation replaces the older, more socially conservative generation, it will be much better.

The president and his/her policies have a lot of influence on downballot races, and with Obama being the most liberal president since the 60s (and also being black - Not exactly the best quality for performing well in the South) has caused utter decimation of Southern Democratic influence. I simply cannot see them rebuilding significantly under equally/more liberal presidents with their own divisive social/character attributes. Not unless they are like the Democratic reincarnation of Reagan.

Just my opinion, though.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2016, 06:45:03 PM »

Baldwin is a lesbian, yes. However, it's not impossible that homosexuality is mainstream enough by 2020 that she's viable in those regions.

Right. Probably not impossible, but 2020 seems a bit too soon. Once the Millennial generation replaces the older, more socially conservative generation, it will be much better.

The president and his/her policies have a lot of influence on downballot races, and with Obama being the most liberal president since the 60s (and also being black - Not exactly the best quality for performing well in the South) has caused utter decimation of Southern Democratic influence. I simply cannot see them rebuilding significantly under equally/more liberal presidents with their own divisive social/character attributes. Not unless they are like the Democratic reincarnation of Reagan.

Just my opinion, though.

This is true, but the Democrats don't need a whole lot of Southern support, as we saw in the past two elections. Florida is likely to remain competitive if slightly-Republican leaning due to minority influence, Virginia is likely to remain Democratic-leaning for similar demographic reasons, Georgia won't be competitive for some time, and as we saw in 2012 Democrats don't need to win North Carolina. Eventually (far out) Dems will probably be at least somewhat competitive again in the South due to larger African-American and Latino populations, but until then they should be okay with the West and Northeast if they can snag enough Midwestern support.
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DS0816
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2016, 08:54:49 PM »

Assume bad things happen in 2016 scaring white people so much that they vote for Trump en mass. The map looks something like this.



Presumably Republicans do quite well in Congressional and other elections, strengthening their control in the Senate and in state governments across the country. What happens next (after Atlas liberals collectively faint)?

* Does Trump acquiesce to the Republican establishment and sign off on some kind of "Ryan Plan" that eviscerates social spending while slashing taxes for the wealthy, or does he stick to his idiosyncratic guns and clash with Congressional GOP leadership?

* Will Democrats make big gains in the 2018 midterm elections (despite a map which forces them to be quite defensive)?

* Does Trump get primaried in 2020? If so, by whom?

* Which Democrats run for President in 2020?


Can you give us exit-poll information, on a national level, suggesting that Donald Trump would win by a landslide (say, a minimum of 10 percentage points, which is about 13 million raw votes)?

I want to know about the two genders' votes. I want to know about the racial demographics' votes.
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Medal506
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2016, 01:51:32 PM »

Trump would probably get primaried by Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
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ag
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2016, 06:51:17 PM »

US will be in the middle of a major war, which will justify restrictions on campaigning and other opposition activity. Trump will be the only candidate, and he will be re-elected unanimously. The National Union Party will, likewise, take the control of the Congress uncontested.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2016, 11:21:28 PM »

I think that, at the latest, in 2019, a Feingold-Wyden-Jones universal healthcare bill might pass. Besides that, I expect a good deal of tax increases and spending cuts. Say what you will about Trump, but I find it hard to see special interests's waste spending being signed under him. Besides that, I think Trump may report or arrest criminal illegal immigrants, secure the border, and be pretty good about "fair but free" on trade.


324: President Donald Trump/Secretary of State Jon Huntsman(51.0%)
214: Sen. Russ Feingold/Gov. Gavin Newsom(46.4%)
Others: 2.6%

Vice President Scott Brown would probably resign.
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ag
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« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2016, 05:41:32 PM »

Say what you will about Trump, but I find it hard to see special interests's waste spending being signed under him.

You must be talking of some other Donald Trump. I think, it is pretty obvious that the Donald Trump running in this election will have only one interest in mind, and that interest will be very special: that of Donald Trump. I mean, the Donald Trump National Gambling Act is pretty certain to be passed and signed as soon as he can get away with it Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2016, 08:05:55 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2016, 07:21:28 AM by pbrower2a »


Holy hell are you a hack. Just because you can't imagine a thing happening does not preclude it from happening. As a white person you may not be aware of this, but white people are extremely jumpy, easily scared by the smallest of things. Think of all the white people who roll their windows up when they have to get off the interstate in a less-white part of town. Those people, collectively, are Trump's ceiling. 70ish% of the white vote breaking to Trump produces a map like mine.

1. Donald Trump has made some contradictory promises that ensure that many who vote for him will be terribly disappointed with him when he fails to deliver. That is good for losing about 10% of the vote share from 2016 to 2020. That is the difference between winning 55-45 and losing 55-45, roughly the difference between Winning like Bush in 1988 and losing like Dukakis in 1988, except that everyone would know that Trump was going to lose.

2. Donald Trump has no experience in public office and no history of military leadership. If something goes wrong he will have no clue on how to deal with an economic meltdown, a military disaster, or a diplomatic debacle. He holds in contempt the one ex-President that he could reliably turn to for advice in the event of some disaster who might solve some problems if asked. (Due to extreme age I do not trust either Jimmy Carter or George H W Bush to be around for long, and Bill Clinton has a bum ticker. If I have some respect for Carter, the elder Bush, and Clinton in the role of President emeritus, I have none for Dubya, which is a commonplace assessment).   Obama is the only likely ex-President that I would trust to be around and be competent much beyond early 2021. Trump will more likely turn to ideological purists who will neglect nearly a majority of Americans.

3. He will have a stormy relationship with Congress, especially if things go sour by November 2018.

4. Race? Do you really think that black middle-class people aren't scared of really-bad black neighborhoods, too? Do you really think that black crooks don't prey on black people? Black people are generally better at identifying black thugs than white people are. I know parts of Detroit that I would take people to. The rest? No.

But -- middle-class blacks do not trust the current GOP.

5. In any event I don't see Donald Trump winning by a landslide. But if he gets elected, just barely, then he will either be Hoover redux on the economy or Carter redux on foreign affairs. Roosevelt 1932 and Reagan 1980 got similar results.

How unpopular could Trump be? Americans would be ready for a Third Term -- of Barack Obama -- were it not for the pesky 22nd Amendment. Figuring what a disaster Donald Trump could be as President and the consequences of such on State and federal elections, Americans could be so much in desire for Obama that they would repeal the 22nd Amendment quickly after the 2018 elections.

... if I can't imagine a July blizzard in Phoenix, do I lack imagination? Or am I a realist?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2016, 05:26:25 AM »

TRUMP wins reelection by a comfortable margin. In 2024, however, Democrats win back the White House by large margin with Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA).



President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Robert Corker (R-TN): 354 EV. (53.39%)
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI)/Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM): 184 EV. (45.87%)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2016, 09:10:10 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2016, 10:38:43 AM by pbrower2a »

Donald Trump wins on promising peace and prosperity and unlike Hoover brings about neither (Hoover was no militarist!). That's even worse. The one good thing that Donald Trump has finally done is to bring America together, if only in contempt for him.

Republicans have had a couple of losses in 2018 in the Senate and BIG losses in the House -- actually losing the House.

Amy Klobuchar, 46th President of the United States, elected like FDR in 1932 or Reagan in 1980 as a rejection of a failed incumbent President.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2016, 02:05:49 PM »

I'll need to see those polls that show Americans being "ready" for a third Obama term if it weren't for that "pesky" amendment.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2016, 03:28:59 PM »

I'll need to see those polls that show Americans being "ready" for a third Obama term if it weren't for that "pesky" amendment.

Aww, when I saw you replied here, I was looking forward to your response to the initial question. Wink
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2016, 04:17:45 PM »

I'll need to see those polls that show Americans being "ready" for a third Obama term if it weren't for that "pesky" amendment.

Aww, when I saw you replied here, I was looking forward to your response to the initial question. Wink

If Hillary obtains the power of flight, how far off of the ground will she fly, and where will she go?!

About as likely.
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