Can any more candidates catch momentum?
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  Can any more candidates catch momentum?
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Author Topic: Can any more candidates catch momentum?  (Read 369 times)
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« on: January 09, 2016, 02:27:17 PM »

Trump and Cruz obviously have the big mo.
Rubio's moment has come and gone and he's stalled out at 13-15.
Bush is getting some momentum as the press gives him a second sympathetic look.
Christie's momentum seems to be fading but he's still got some gas in the tank.
Can Kasich or Fiorina catch a second wind?
Can Huckabee and Santorum remind their former voters why they liked them in the first place?
Can Paul overcome his tarnished image?
Can Carson get his mojo back and soar on the wings of angels to his former glory?
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Pyro
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2016, 02:29:41 PM »

Probably not. It depends on the standings in Iowa and NH.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2016, 02:45:17 PM »

Not until after Iowa when votes are actually counted. Not only will that lead to more media attention on people who over-performed, but it may lead to more drop outs. Since the people on the Republican side tend to fall into camps (establishment with Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie, evangelicals with Cruz and Carson, etc.), a drop out of one person would only increase the polls of only one or two other candidates. While not really "momentum" since the opinions of voters wont have shifted, it will be taken that way as those who benefit from a drop out gain in the polls.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2016, 03:06:18 PM »

I think they can
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2016, 03:07:52 PM »

Anything is possible.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2016, 05:07:35 AM »

As noted here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/29/upshot/are-primary-polls-finally-predictive-no-but-this-is-when-the-fun-starts.html?ref=topics&_r=0

there's a long history of polling volatility in the final month before voting, and there often isn't even any "event" that propels a candidate.  The momentum often just comes out of nowhere:

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Gustaf
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2016, 05:15:32 AM »

I find it interesting that people who have followed recent years of primary campaigns can be so oblivious to how common these swings are. Primaries are very difficult to predict so I wouldn't count anyone out.
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