Great Lakes States Without Their Largest Counties

[Miles]

Something I put together. NY was somewhat of an exception; instead of considering its largest county, I used the five NYC counties, which I thought that made more sense in this context.

For now, I'm starting in 2000, but will likely add on previous years.

2000

2004

2008

2012

The swings between the years:

And finally, the PVI ratings for each year. This is obviously excluding the largest counties:

[Asian Nazi]

I like this. 

[CountyTy90]

I like this. 

Me too. So interesting to see in 2012 that Barack would have lost Illinois, narrowly, without Cook County, yet he'd still win in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota without their biggest counties.

Good job, Miles!

[Skye]

These are some interesting maps. Good job, Miles!

[Young Conservative]

These are some interesting maps. Good job, Miles!

[JonathanSwift]

These are some interesting maps. Good job, Miles!

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Very good work. I've always found the great lake states interesting.  For  the most part it's "battleground" territory with left leaning tendencies.  New York, Illinois, and Indiana being the exceptions.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Interesting to see that Illinois is the president's home state, yet he lost there outside of Cook County in 2012.  What's even more bizarre is that Wisconsin and Michigan went for Obama outside their largest counties.

Could this be a sign of a larger GOP trend in Illinois?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Rauner, is reelected, which I doubt, it will be difficult for GOP to regain state legislative seats at Fed & State Level. Dems will continue, even in IL 10, win congressional seats.

In OH, Dems like Brown & Strickland are the exception to the strong GOP trend of the state. It is like Va at the Prez level, and Kasich wont be Gov, forever.

[Miles]

Interesting to see that Illinois is the president's home state, yet he lost there outside of Cook County in 2012.  What's even more bizarre is that Wisconsin and Michigan went for Obama outside their largest counties.

Could this be a sign of a larger GOP trend in Illinois?

Other than IN, which he outright ignored in 2012, Obama had the most room to fall in IL, as his home state boost wore off.

As the PVI showed, IL actually moved towards Democrats. The Democratic strength downstate faded but improved in faster-growing areas like the collar counties. Obama had little home state effect in 2012 as it was, but it will be interesting to see if that trend holds in 2016, when he's be off the ballot entirely.

PA is probably the best takeway for Republicans from this, IMO.

[/]

Amazing!

But PA is getting pretty scary, or so it seems.

[Miles]

Here's the Great Lakes part of this 2000 - 2012 trend map, which might also be helpful here:

[DS0816]

What would the map look like if we eliminated the counties which had less than 100,000 votes cast for president of the United States?

[Ebsy]

I think this demonstrates pretty well how steep of a climb Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota would be for a Republican to win in a closely contested election.

[Miles]

What would the map look like if we eliminated the counties which had less than 100,000 votes cast for president of the United States?

For now, here's just 2012:



The "% of votes" column means that, in IL for example, 69.7% of the total votes were from counties that cast 100K+ votes.

Lackawanna, PA, Livingston, MI and Delaware, OH all barely missed out on 100K for their respective states.

[Bismarck]

Indiana is still pretty close compared to the others. Allen, Hamilton, Johnson, And Hendricks counties all have large republican margins.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Even if Rauner, is reelected, which I doubt, it will be difficult for GOP to regain state legislative seats at Fed & State Level. Dems will continue, even in IL 10, win congressional seats.

In OH, Dems like Brown & Strickland are the exception to the strong GOP trend of the state. It is like Va at the Prez level, and Kasich wont be Gov, forever.

I wouldn't count Rauner out.  He's only a year into his term.  And even if he runs again, he can take the Truman/Clinton strategy by pinning the blame for the gridlock on Mike Madigan and the Democrats in the legislature.

I also think it's a stretch to say Ohio is like Virginia at the presidential level.  Virginia has clearly been trending blue for a while now (and was even before Obama, due to the rapid growth of the NoVa suburbs), but I haven't seen any trend like that in Ohio.  If anything, I think Ohio may have trended slightly Republican under Obama.

[Calthrina950]

I would presume that in 2016, Trump won every Great Lakes State outside of their largest county, except for maybe New York. I have read elsewhere that Clinton would have still carried New York by 0.1% if one removed New York City, and she obviously would have done so if only the most populous borough (Brooklyn) were removed, with Manhattan, the Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island left in.

[Epaminondas]

Good resurrection. That excised 2012 map is impressive, Obama still had strong rural appeal.

By the way was this the Miles Coleman posting on Atlas?

[Calthrina950]

Good resurrection. That excised 2012 map is impressive, Obama still had strong rural appeal.

By the way was this the Miles Coleman posting on Atlas?

Yes, indeed it was.

[Calthrina950]

I would presume that in 2016, Trump won every Great Lakes State outside of their largest county, except for maybe New York. I have read elsewhere that Clinton would have still carried New York by 0.1% if one removed New York City, and she obviously would have done so if only the most populous borough (Brooklyn) were removed, with Manhattan, the Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island left in.

In fact, it's a certainty that Trump won Illinois outside of Cook County (as Romney did in 2012) and obviously Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. Here's the results for Minnesota and New York without their largest counties:

Minnesota without Hennepin County:  2,265,256
Trump (R): 1,131,462 (49.95%)
Clinton (D): 938,537 (41.43%)

New York without New York City: 4,980,375
Clinton (D): 2,391,567 (48.02%)
Trump (R): 2,325,008 (46.68%)

Trump, as I expected, would have won Minnesota by ~193,000 votes without Hennepin County, while Clinton still would have carried New York without New York City by ~66,000 votes.

[Chips]

2020 MN without Hennepin:

Trump: 1,278,092
Biden: 1,184,454

Margin: 93,638

[Calthrina950]

2020 MN without Hennepin:

Trump: 1,278,092
Biden: 1,184,454

Margin: 93,638

Biden cut Clinton's deficit in Minnesota outside of Hennepin by ~100,000 votes, probably because he improved over her in Dakota, Ramsey, and Washington Counties-that is, St. Paul and the Twin Cities suburbs. He also gained four counties which she had lost in 2016 (Clay, Blue Earth, Nicollet, and Winona) and improved over her in the Iron Range. This outweighed Trump's gains in the more rural areas of the state, where he broke 60% or 70% of the vote in several more counties than the previous election.