Predict the price of a barrel of oil in July

[Seneca]

Brent and WTI are both currently trading around $31, having fallen through the supposed "floor" of $40. After a year of calling those predicting $20 oil crazy, analysts have turned bearish; $20 is now the bandwagon, as well as the presumed new floor. Bearish analysts are now talking about $10 oil and logistical problems storing all the excess supply.

Six months from now in July when Republicans from across the country are driving to Cleveland for the convention, how much do thing a barrel of oil will cost?

[Clyde1998]

I think between $40 and $49. For the UK, apparently it costs around $40 in production costs per barrel - so currently companies are losing money by extracting North Sea Oil. I've worked it out to be around £10m per day being lost at the moment.

[Seneca]

Interesting chart! What's the source, out of curiosity?

Also, check this out, crude today fell below $30/barrel for the first time in 12 years.

[Ebsy]

Good thing the oil companies made record profits for so many years, so they will weather this horrible tragedy.

[Clyde1998]

Interesting chart! What's the source, out of curiosity?

Also, check this out, crude today fell below $30/barrel for the first time in 12 years.

I found it on the Telegraph website - so I'll have a look at the source that they quoted.

EDIT - The graph comes from the IMF: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11535265/IMF-oil-price-collapse-will-cripple-North-Sea-producers.html

[DINGO Joe]

I voted 40-49, but I've already been convinced by the number of long-tail projects still coming online and the rather shocking amount of Canadian oil that came into the US last week that 30-39 is a better bet.

[Ebsy]

Apparently middle eastern markets are crashing. 5.44% shaved off of TASI and 4.42 off of the ADI. Qatar's major index lost 7.16%. Funnily enough, the only sector to see (modest) gains in Saudi Arabia was the transport sector, which of course will benefit from lower energy prices.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I hope it goes sky high and Obama gets blamed for it.

[Ebsy]

I hope it goes sky high and Obama gets blamed for it.

The real risk is it going too low.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I hope it goes sky high and Obama gets blamed for it.

The real risk is it going too low.

It's scary how Republicans are only able to see things from the individual household-end of the economy, and I mean that about nearly every economic issue from this to taxes.

[DINGO Joe]

Recent offers for North Dakota Sour crude (by those insidious Koch brothers) have ranged from $1.50 to -.50.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/the-north-dakota-crude-oil-that-s-worth-less-than-nothing

[Nhoj]

Recent offers for North Dakota Sour crude (by those insidious Koch brothers) have ranged from $1.50 to -.50.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/the-north-dakota-crude-oil-that-s-worth-less-than-nothing

Not the main kind of crude made in ND however, its basically just a low quality byproduct.

[RR]

Good thing the oil companies made record profits for so many years, so they will weather this horrible tragedy.

[Simfan34]

I think between $40 and $49. For the UK, apparently it costs around $40 in production costs per barrel - so currently companies are losing money by extracting North Sea Oil. I've worked it out to be around £10m per day being lost at the moment.

Ha!

Ha ha!

Ha ha ha ha ha!

[DINGO Joe]

Front month Brent trading @$47, Front month WTI @45.  So, 40-49 is the winner.

[Kingpoleon]

I guessed 40-49 in the poll, but not the comments.