Sanders leads in IA by Quinnipiac
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: January 12, 2016, 01:18:09 PM »

Anyway my only three guesses as to why this is happening beyond the obvious stuff (natural tightening, Sanders spending a lot more money, changing voter screens, etc.) are:

1. The Sanders campaign turning the data breach story around on the DNC/DWS.

2. Trump's high profile invasion of Vermont which sort of changed the narrative from "Trump v. Clinton" into "Trump v. Sanders" for the first time.

3. While celebrating the birth of a Jew over the holiday break, Iowans wisely decided that we need to put one in The White House!
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #26 on: January 12, 2016, 01:21:24 PM »

I mean, I had been planning on a write-in when OH rolled around until the data-breach thing.  Now I'm going to vote Sanders just out of disgust with the DNC.  *shrug*
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2016, 01:21:51 PM »

The size of this surge is so YUGE, that one has to wonder what the hell happened?

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

Yes, but that only works in a places like Iowa and NH.  In states which a large AA voting bloc in the Dem primary, a major part of the Obama coalition of 2008 will go with Hillary.  I do not see how they will swing behind Sanders even if he sweeps Iowa and NH.

If Bernie wins IA and NH - everything is possible.

Even Blaxicasians will realize that backing a fraud like Hillary won't do them any favour and switch over to the man of the working people.

There's no indication that will happen. Just wishful thinking on your part.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #28 on: January 12, 2016, 01:30:40 PM »

The size of this surge is so YUGE, that one has to wonder what the hell happened?

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.
I think one explanation has to be : men realized they were on the verge of having a woman as their President, and they find this unnerving. Patriarchy's not dead before a while.

I remember an experienced Greek journalist some 20 years ago talking on TV about the US (where he lived for some years).
He predicted back then that in the near future Americans will elect a black president. But, he said, they will NEVER elect a woman president. That's their mentality.
Maybe he knew something more than most of us.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2016, 01:46:57 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #30 on: January 12, 2016, 02:06:31 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #31 on: January 12, 2016, 02:12:34 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: January 12, 2016, 02:20:30 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Sanders needs to show that he can at least be competitive with Blacks and Hispanics before we can label this as a toss up. Otherwise Hillary is going to comeback with big wins in Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday.
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cxs018
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« Reply #33 on: January 12, 2016, 02:21:54 PM »

The unfortunate part is that these recent polls will be fodder for more Shillary "we're losing, everybdy donate $1!" emails.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #34 on: January 12, 2016, 02:25:59 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Black voters don't tend to change their support due to who has the momentum. They are in fact the most inelastic group.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #35 on: January 12, 2016, 02:35:21 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Black voters don't tend to change their support due to who has the momentum. They are in fact the most inelastic group.

I love how you generalize black voters. Oh well you will figure it out sooner or later your just in the denial stage.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #36 on: January 12, 2016, 02:40:53 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Black voters don't tend to change their support due to who has the momentum. They are in fact the most inelastic group.

I love how you generalize black voters. Oh well you will figure it out sooner or later your just in the denial stage.

Look at past statistics. If you rule out any "generalizing", then you can't do any reasonable analysis and/or predictions.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #37 on: January 12, 2016, 03:16:28 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2016, 03:19:44 PM by bronz4141 »

This also shows, I can't believe that I am saying this, that Mitt Romney and Bill O'Reilly was right about the free things (tuition, etc). Some of them are Bernie's base. They want stuff handed to them. This is not Europe. This is what it looks to the average American. And I am an Independent by the way.
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Flake
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« Reply #38 on: January 12, 2016, 04:52:00 PM »

This also shows, I can't believe that I am saying this, that Mitt Romney and Bill O'Reilly was right about the free things (tuition, etc). Some of them are Bernie's base. They want stuff handed to them. This is not Europe. This is what it looks to the average American. And I am an Independent by the way.

Roll Eyes
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #39 on: January 12, 2016, 05:21:23 PM »

Black voters don't tend to change their support due to who has the momentum. They are in fact the most inelastic group.

Hillary was winning black voters through most of 2007 (maybe until Obama won Iowa?). Also, you yourself suggested black voters were bitter about Hillary.

Single white women, 49-55% of young white voters (if Rand isn't running), Hispanics, non-bitter Blacks.

There was a 10% drop in support from Biden to Hillary among African-Americans in SUSA'S latest FL poll. Statistical noise? I think not.

But now their loyalty to her shows how inflexible they are?

Obviously, Sanders wouldn't excite black voters the way Obama did but there's also no particular reason to think he couldn't win many over once they got familiar with him. Likewise with other minorities.

As to the explanation for this, it's just people paying more attention, but presumably less anti-Hillary than pro-Bernie.


Yes, they have been very supportive of Hillary throughout her career. They only began to support Obama when they realized it was possible that he could win, this was talked about a lot in the media at the time. Then in mid-January the racial issues started coming up and she collapsed with them. Sanders doesn't have the same draw as Obama among blacks, for obvious reasons.

Yes, I suggested that, and have been proven wrong by her near unanimous support from them in polls.
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jfern
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« Reply #40 on: January 12, 2016, 05:44:01 PM »

Black voters don't tend to change their support due to who has the momentum. They are in fact the most inelastic group.

Hillary was winning black voters through most of 2007 (maybe until Obama won Iowa?). Also, you yourself suggested black voters were bitter about Hillary.

Single white women, 49-55% of young white voters (if Rand isn't running), Hispanics, non-bitter Blacks.

There was a 10% drop in support from Biden to Hillary among African-Americans in SUSA'S latest FL poll. Statistical noise? I think not.

But now their loyalty to her shows how inflexible they are?

Obviously, Sanders wouldn't excite black voters the way Obama did but there's also no particular reason to think he couldn't win many over once they got familiar with him. Likewise with other minorities.

As to the explanation for this, it's just people paying more attention, but presumably less anti-Hillary than pro-Bernie.


Yes, they have been very supportive of Hillary throughout her career. They only began to support Obama when they realized it was possible that he could win, this was talked about a lot in the media at the time. Then in mid-January the racial issues started coming up and she collapsed with them. Sanders doesn't have the same draw as Obama among blacks, for obvious reasons.

Yes, I suggested that, and have been proven wrong by her near unanimous support from them in polls.

I agree with this mostly, but I just don't think there's any reason to think they're resistant to Bernie as opposed to feeling positive about Hillary. But I'm skeptical her dominance with black voters is a lock if Sanders somehow sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire, which I think would be something of a political earthquake.

Hillary will continue to win black voters, but Bernie could  take the lead with Hispanics. Ironically, Hillary won Hispanics but not blacks in 2008.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2016, 05:54:33 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Dear God, you make OC look like a Nate Silver.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #42 on: January 12, 2016, 10:53:16 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Dear God, you make OC look like a Nate Silver.

Most people agree that her leads will shrink if she loses both Iowa and New hampshire do you disagree?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
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« Reply #43 on: January 12, 2016, 11:34:12 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Dear God, you make OC look like a Nate Silver.

Most people agree that her leads will shrink if she loses both Iowa and New hampshire do you disagree?

It'll shrink, sure.  But she's gonna win Iowa and even if she lost both, she'd still win.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #44 on: January 12, 2016, 11:46:43 PM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Dear God, you make OC look like a Nate Silver.

Most people agree that her leads will shrink if she loses both Iowa and New hampshire do you disagree?

It'll shrink, sure.  But she's gonna win Iowa and even if she lost both, she'd still win.

Oh she will win Iowa oh i see...so this poll is junk?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
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« Reply #45 on: January 13, 2016, 12:38:48 AM »

I have the same question to do. It's pretty strange that while the race was stable after October suddenly during the Christmas vacation, when literally nothing happened, Sanders started to surge.
Can someone give a SERIOUS, non-hackish explanation about that?
Thanks.

Yes:

People are starting to pay attention more, and are realizing that Clinton is an untrustworthy flip-flopper who has no real convictions, feels entitled to the office, and doesn't care about the needs and wants of commoners.

The Obama-coalition that once defeated Hillary is now reassembling just at the right time to re-defeat her and STOP her from grabbing power. That is what happens.

He said non-hackish...

Reality is not hackish.

Tender, you're a good guy. Don't be a jackass like jfern.

Looks like someone got proven wrong. It's what we have been saying for months now that Clinton is not enevitible and it is looking worse everyday for her.

Until Sanders starts improving with minorities, Hillary is inevitable. Remember, it's not just the south that Hillary's black support wins for her, it also wins her the big states like OH, PA, IL & MI.

Oh stop you know this is a tossup now. If she loses the first few states say goodbye to her leads everywhere else in this country. Clinton is smart enough to know this that's why she has gone on the attack....but when your opponent is so well liked it's hard to get results out of that.

Dear God, you make OC look like a Nate Silver.

Most people agree that her leads will shrink if she loses both Iowa and New hampshire do you disagree?

It'll shrink, sure.  But she's gonna win Iowa and even if she lost both, she'd still win.

Oh she will win Iowa oh i see...so this poll is junk?

Junk might be a little strong, it'll be closer than anyone thought it would be, but...yeah.  Now if the Selzer poll tomorrow shows Sanders ahead, that's another story.
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