Sanders leads in IA by Quinnipiac (user search)
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  Sanders leads in IA by Quinnipiac (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sanders leads in IA by Quinnipiac  (Read 3828 times)
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jfern
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« on: January 12, 2016, 05:44:01 PM »

Black voters don't tend to change their support due to who has the momentum. They are in fact the most inelastic group.

Hillary was winning black voters through most of 2007 (maybe until Obama won Iowa?). Also, you yourself suggested black voters were bitter about Hillary.

Single white women, 49-55% of young white voters (if Rand isn't running), Hispanics, non-bitter Blacks.

There was a 10% drop in support from Biden to Hillary among African-Americans in SUSA'S latest FL poll. Statistical noise? I think not.

But now their loyalty to her shows how inflexible they are?

Obviously, Sanders wouldn't excite black voters the way Obama did but there's also no particular reason to think he couldn't win many over once they got familiar with him. Likewise with other minorities.

As to the explanation for this, it's just people paying more attention, but presumably less anti-Hillary than pro-Bernie.


Yes, they have been very supportive of Hillary throughout her career. They only began to support Obama when they realized it was possible that he could win, this was talked about a lot in the media at the time. Then in mid-January the racial issues started coming up and she collapsed with them. Sanders doesn't have the same draw as Obama among blacks, for obvious reasons.

Yes, I suggested that, and have been proven wrong by her near unanimous support from them in polls.

I agree with this mostly, but I just don't think there's any reason to think they're resistant to Bernie as opposed to feeling positive about Hillary. But I'm skeptical her dominance with black voters is a lock if Sanders somehow sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire, which I think would be something of a political earthquake.

Hillary will continue to win black voters, but Bernie could  take the lead with Hispanics. Ironically, Hillary won Hispanics but not blacks in 2008.
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