OK State Sen: Dem. elected in 70% Romney seat
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  OK State Sen: Dem. elected in 70% Romney seat
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Author Topic: OK State Sen: Dem. elected in 70% Romney seat  (Read 2440 times)
Miles
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« on: January 13, 2016, 12:00:16 AM »

Article.

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FF!

It says 65% in the article, but according to DKE, its Republican average is close to 70%, which is also what Romney got.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2016, 12:04:57 AM »

Tulsa County has been slowly but surely trending back to the Democrats, and this is a nice sign of their efforts. That being said, Special elections are weird beasts, and I'm not sure Senator Dossett will continue in this seat.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2016, 12:09:42 AM »

Hmmm... backlash against education cuts in the suburbs.  Could be nothing, but kind of echoes JBE's suburban margins running on similar issues.

Oh this too. I see posts about education cuts from deeply conservative Oklahomans. There is serious backlash over the way Fallin and the Republicans have governed this state. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that a Democrat will be Governor after 2018 elections. Joe Dorman is in perfect position for a comeback.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2016, 12:18:54 AM »

I was actually surprised this was a suburban seat, not one of the districts out east.

A few years ago, I remember Democrats picked up the McCurtain County House district (24% Obama) in a special election, and have actually held it since then. Hopefully that holds here, too, as Dossett seems like he could have a bright future.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2016, 12:21:14 AM »
« Edited: January 13, 2016, 12:30:03 AM by Maxwell »

I was actually surprised this was a suburban seat, not one of the districts out east.

A few years ago, I remember Democrats picked up the McCurtain County House district (24% Obama) in a special election, and have actually held it since then. Hopefully that holds here, too, as Dossett seems like he could have a bright future.

McCurtain County is also 80% registered Democrat, so I can see that happening a little more than suburban Tulsa.

Another interesting special election was a House seat in pretty Republican suburbs of Oklahoma City where Cyndi Munson, an Asian female democrat, won a seat by a decent margin. She done a decent job in the election before, so I feel like she could win re-election. It certainly seems like the deck chairs in Oklahoma are changing.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2016, 12:35:46 AM »

Btw, this is Randy Brogdon's old district - who is basically the face of the Oklahoma Tea Party. He did surprisingly well against Mary Fallin in a primary back in 2010, but epically flopped in a Senate run against two state juggernauts (Congressman James Lankford and House Speaker T.W. Shannon). Thanks for bringing this to light.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2016, 12:53:13 AM »

Democrats have won a surprising number of state legislature seats in special elections.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2016, 12:56:54 AM »

Democrats have won a surprising number of state legislature seats in special elections.

And lost surprising number too. But this is, unquestionably, good. The only question - will it hold?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2016, 01:20:19 AM »

Suburban OKC and Tulsa are trending Democratic, but this is probably a freak accident. Don't expect it to hold in a year with full turnout, impressive nonetheless.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2016, 02:02:20 AM »

Democrats have won a surprising number of state legislature seats in special elections.

And lost surprising number too. But this is, unquestionably, good. The only question - will it hold?

At least of the ones I can recall, there have been four state special election seats in formerly/currently-safe Republican areas that Democrats have won in the six months:

  • OK HD 85: Cyndi Munson (D), 54% in a 61% Romney district
  • GA HD 80: Taylor Bennett (D), 55% in a 56% Romney district
  • PA HD 161: Leanne Krueger-Braneky (D), 48% in a 56% GOP district
  • OK SD 34: J.J. Dossett (D), 56% in a 70% Romney district

The only R victory I can recall in a special in the past six months is the one Senate seat in GA, which isn't all that surprising given the fact that despite it being a 70% Obama district, all of the recent minority voting population is very young; 65+ voters are still majority-white, while the district as a whole is 58% black VAP.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2016, 04:10:59 AM »

Democrats have won a surprising number of state legislature seats in special elections.

And lost surprising number too. But this is, unquestionably, good. The only question - will it hold?

At least of the ones I can recall, there have been four state special election seats in formerly/currently-safe Republican areas that Democrats have won in the six months:

  • OK HD 85: Cyndi Munson (D), 54% in a 61% Romney district
  • GA HD 80: Taylor Bennett (D), 55% in a 56% Romney district
  • PA HD 161: Leanne Krueger-Braneky (D), 48% in a 56% GOP district
  • OK SD 34: J.J. Dossett (D), 56% in a 70% Romney district

The only R victory I can recall in a special in the past six months is the one Senate seat in GA, which isn't all that surprising given the fact that despite it being a 70% Obama district, all of the recent minority voting population is very young; 65+ voters are still majority-white, while the district as a whole is 58% black VAP.

Yes, but i talk about somewhat bigger time span. And include "near-misses" as, for example, failure to win open state Senate seat in Rhode Island less then 10 days ago. Yes, it was held by republican before, but it was rather strong Obama Seat (56 or 58% IIRC) and outgoing Republican state Senator supported Democratic candidate. Nevertheless - Republicans narrow held it. And last year there was a open state House district not far from Philadelphia, which preferred to elect "pro-labor Republican" instead of Democrat.

I expect a lot of strange results in 2016 specials, and may be (just may be) - in November.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2016, 09:41:35 AM »

Are these one-off instances, or are the winds of change really blowing like my progressive friends would like to deduce from these special elections?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2016, 11:03:07 AM »

Are these one-off instances, or are the winds of change really blowing like my progressive friends would like to deduce from these special elections?

So far i would say one-off. I expect very "spotty" election results this year, with a lot of "contrary to common thinking" situations, but - in ALL directions..
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Vosem
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2016, 11:09:02 AM »

Eh, voters are taking their frustration over the Oklahoma Republican Party's policies out in special elections. I don't really think it's a meaningful trend outside of Oklahoma itself (and, if the KS-2014 races taught us anything, I doubt Ds could pull off a statewide win in OK if 2018 is a Democratic midterm).
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2016, 11:16:00 AM »

Eh, voters are taking their frustration over the Oklahoma Republican Party's policies out in special elections. I don't really think it's a meaningful trend outside of Oklahoma itself (and, if the KS-2014 races taught us anything, I doubt Ds could pull off a statewide win in OK if 2018 is a Democratic midterm).

I think the same. But Boren is conservative enough to have a chance..
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2016, 11:19:51 AM »

Are these one-off instances, or are the winds of change really blowing like my progressive friends would like to deduce from these special elections?

I could buy arguments for the first, and then I can also buy that people here are immensely frustrated with the way Governor Fallin has run things. She implemented these structural deficits by reducing taxes for very wealthy people, and then when the economy began to slow we are forced to cut education instead of putting those taxes back in place. That's probably why the last couple special elections in deep Romney areas have been won by Democrats.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2016, 12:28:17 PM »

Suburban OKC and Tulsa are trending Democratic, but this is probably a freak accident. Don't expect it to hold in a year with full turnout, impressive nonetheless.

The trend of "metro area = Dem" "rural area = R" is not going to continue forever and only has so much further it can go.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #17 on: January 13, 2016, 01:38:40 PM »

Suburban OKC and Tulsa are trending Democratic, but this is probably a freak accident. Don't expect it to hold in a year with full turnout, impressive nonetheless.

The trend of "metro area = Dem" "rural area = R" is not going to continue forever and only has so much further it can go.

The trend is only beginning in Oklahoma.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2016, 02:27:09 PM »

Suburban OKC and Tulsa are trending Democratic, but this is probably a freak accident. Don't expect it to hold in a year with full turnout, impressive nonetheless.

The trend of "metro area = Dem" "rural area = R" is not going to continue forever and only has so much further it can go.

The trend is only beginning in Oklahoma.

Right, but you need liberal suburbanites for that trend to happen (ala NOVA); I don't see that EVER happening in OKC, at least not where they'd outnumber your more stereotypical suburban Republicans.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #19 on: January 13, 2016, 05:12:43 PM »

Hmmm... backlash against education cuts in the suburbs.  Could be nothing, but kind of echoes JBE's suburban margins running on similar issues.

Oh this too. I see posts about education cuts from deeply conservative Oklahomans. There is serious backlash over the way Fallin and the Republicans have governed this state. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that a Democrat will be Governor after 2018 elections. Joe Dorman is in perfect position for a comeback.

Is there a possibility of Mick Cornett pulling a Bill Walker?
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2016, 05:20:22 PM »

Hmmm... backlash against education cuts in the suburbs.  Could be nothing, but kind of echoes JBE's suburban margins running on similar issues.

Oh this too. I see posts about education cuts from deeply conservative Oklahomans. There is serious backlash over the way Fallin and the Republicans have governed this state. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that a Democrat will be Governor after 2018 elections. Joe Dorman is in perfect position for a comeback.

Is there a possibility of Mick Cornett pulling a Bill Walker?

absolutely, and mary fallin will pull a saddham hussein.
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rbt48
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« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2016, 01:25:43 PM »

In case you don't already know, here is a good site to track State legislative special elections:
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2016
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mds32
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« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2016, 05:04:12 PM »

Democrats have won a surprising number of state legislature seats in special elections.

And lost surprising number too. But this is, unquestionably, good. The only question - will it hold?

At least of the ones I can recall, there have been four state special election seats in formerly/currently-safe Republican areas that Democrats have won in the six months:

  • OK HD 85: Cyndi Munson (D), 54% in a 61% Romney district
  • GA HD 80: Taylor Bennett (D), 55% in a 56% Romney district
  • PA HD 161: Leanne Krueger-Braneky (D), 48% in a 56% GOP district
  • OK SD 34: J.J. Dossett (D), 56% in a 70% Romney district

The only R victory I can recall in a special in the past six months is the one Senate seat in GA, which isn't all that surprising given the fact that despite it being a 70% Obama district, all of the recent minority voting population is very young; 65+ voters are still majority-white, while the district as a whole is 58% black VAP.

That PA house seat is in Delaware county (which Obama won) with two Republicans splitting the vote.
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