Have you bought a Powerball ticket?

[Armenian Noodle Dip]

If so, what are your numbers?

[Phony Moderate]

Don't jackpots winners only really win about $63 in the end because taxes?

[°Leprechaun]

If so, what are your numbers?

The winning ones, of course, lol.

[SATW]

no, because i dont live in a state of delusion

[°Leprechaun]

Well, is spending $2 really all that difficult to afford? I can see why someone wouldn't want to be a billionaire. I mean what would you do with all that money? I'd be happy with $100,000.

[Joe Republic]

Yeah, my arm was twisted into paying $20 idiot tax.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Probably will. Why not?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I may, but I don't know.  I've never played the lottery before, and I don't plan to make it a regular habit.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'll occasionally buy a ticket once a jackpot hits nine figures.  Of course, if I win, the first thing I will do is buy a lifetime Atlas membership.

[muon2]

One way to look at it s by comparing the payoff to the odds. Casinos win because they pay off slightly less than the odds. A bet on black at roulette is 1:1 odds, it pays off an extra $1 for a $1 bet. Odds become a probability by taking the bet and dividing it by the sum of the bet and payoff. So, a bet on black pays off as if it would happen 50% of the time. But because of 0 and 00 which are neither red nor black the actual probability of black is 18/38 or 47.4%. Over time the gambler will lose due to that difference from 50%.

The idea works for bets that pay off at higher odds. Suppose you bet on a single number at roulette. The payoff is listed at 35:1, so the probability is 2.78%. But because of the extra two numbers, the real probability is 2.63%. Over time I will average a return of 2.63%*$36 = $0.947 per $1 bet.

So consider Powerball. The odds of winning are about 292 million to 1, and the bet is $2, so a simple calculation would say that once the payoff was over $584M then the average return would be better than the bet. Of course there are taxes as well as the lump sum penalty (if you go that way) which more than doubles the payoff needed to get a better average return than the bet.

[Torie]

But isn't the problem that there is some chance that more than one person wins, and the winnings have to shared, thus negating the positive expected return?

[anvi]

muon2: Just out of curiosity, are you familiar with Jordan Ellenburg's recent popular book on mathematics: "How Not to be Wrong"?  He has a few chapters in there on lotteries and suggests that picking lottery numbers might be smartly approached by combinatorial design.  I was just wondering, if you're familiar with it, what you think of it.

[bore]

Don't jackpots winners only really win about $63 in the end because taxes?

http://www.theonion.com/article/learned-sage-points-out-powerball-not-much-after-t-52161

[Vosem]

no, because i dont live in a state of delusion

[muon2]

But isn't the problem that there is some chance that more than one person wins, and the winnings have to shared, thus negating the positive expected return?

Yes, you would factor in the average number of winners per draw for pots above your target pot size.

muon2: Just out of curiosity, are you familiar with Jordan Ellenburg's recent popular book on mathematics: "How Not to be Wrong"?  He has a few chapters in there on lotteries and suggests that picking lottery numbers might be smartly approached by combinatorial design.  I was just wondering, if you're familiar with it, what you think of it.

I'm not familiar with the book, but I will look for it.

[Simfan34]

The anonymous collection process in New York is too complicated. The only people I want knowing I've won the lottery are my lawyers and wealth managers.

When you throw taxes and the lump sum penalty into the mix, the actual payment remains less than $600 million. In New Jersey, I'd get just $480 million. I didn't know it had gone up to $1.6 billion.

[Joe Republic]

The anonymous collection process in New York is too complicated. The only people I want knowing I've won the lottery are my lawyers and wealth managers.

When you throw taxes and the lump sum penalty into the mix, the actual payment remains less than $600 million. In New Jersey, I'd get just $480 million. I didn't know it had gone up to $1.6 billion.

  how can anybody survive on such a pittance

[Simfan34]

Oh come on. That less than a third of the advertised jackpot! Anyway, we are talking about expected return. At that payout, it would still be too low to have a positive expected return.

[Bojack Horseman]

A $1 million winner was sold in my hometown, and I bought a ticket at that gas station. But alas, it wasn't my ticket.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, I don't waste money if I can help it.

[DavidB.]

no, because i dont live in a state of delusion

LOL, nailed it.

[RR1997]

no, because i dont live in a state of delusion

[Consciously Unconscious]

no, because i dont live in a state of delusion

[Enduro]

no, because i dont live in a state of delusion