What if Rubio were not running?

[Vosem]

When Rubio first announced his candidacy, I said that he had made a mistake; that he would trend on Jeb's toes without actually having any chance himself, and that by giving up his Senate seat he was ensuring that he had no future except in the (I thought, unlikely) chance that his campaign was at least moderately successful. It seems that I was wrong; certainly about the first point and most likely about the second, as even if Rubio does not win the nomination unless he falls totally flat on his face he will probably win a few states and salvage a career.

But what if Rubio ran for reelection instead of the Presidency? Let's say no one else is tempted to enter the race by this, and this does not dissuade anyone from running either. Does Jeb remain as the establishmentarian alternative to Trump? Would Walker remain successful, and could he have been able to bridge the gap between Rubio's "establishment" voters and Carson/Cruz's "evangelical" supporters? Or would Rubio's votes have been picked up by Kasich, who is fighting in NH for a similar constituency? Christie is tonally very different, but would he have some appeal?

[Lyin' Steve]

What makes you think he'll win any states?
Trump is gonna win every state dude, hate to break it to you.

[Orser67]

Assuming no one else decided to run, I think Bush would be a bit stronger. Rubio's presence has heavily undermined Bush, and I think most of Rubio's establishment supporters would be on Team Bush if not for Rubio's presence. Bush was already in freefall by the time that he confronted Rubio in the debate about Rubio's attendance, but Rubio's comeback to Bush's attack at that debate is (imo) the defining moment of Bush's campaign so far. With no Rubio, I think Bush's flaws would still have been exposed but he wouldn't have fallen as far.

So I think it would be similar to the current race, except we'd see Bush in Rubio's position (but weaker), and Kasich and Christie in roughly the same position of challenging the establishment frontrunner in New Hampshire. Though Fiorina and (maybe) Paul could have perhaps had more oxygen without Rubio in the race.

[Why]

The chances of Rubio winning one state have to be less than the chances of him winning no states. He is well behind and not improving. He is reliant on others dropping out to give him votes but there is no guarantee that is going to happen.