Is the Kasich surge in NH real?

[RI]

He's second in Atlas's NH polling average, leading Rubio, and pulling in the best numbers of his campaign. Meanwhile Christie seems to be slipping and Bush's mini-surge hasn't gone anywhere. Rubio and Cruz also seem to be slipping a bit.

[yankeesfan]

No.  Kasich has only risen because of his ad campaigns in NH.  He falls in support after debates, when people actually see him and realize that he's wacky wavy inflatable arms flailing tube man. 

[Holmes]

Only if you believe the numbers Overtime pulls out of their ass like some people here.

[RI]

Only if you believe the numbers Overtime pulls out of their ass like some people here.

Overtime is hardly the only poll showing Kasich surging...

[Asian Nazi]

No.  Kasich has only risen because of his ad campaigns in NH.  He falls in support after debates, when people actually see him and realize that he's wacky wavy inflatable arms flailing tube man. 

[Maxwell]

I mean, I doubt it.

[Likely Voter]

Kasich has done a good job of focusing on NH and since the summer he has built up good favorables. In recent weeks he has benefited from not being the target of attack unlike Bush, Rubio and especially Christie. This has resulted in at least a mini surge. He does fit the mold of the type of candidates that do well in NH.

[President Johnson]

I think yes. He has built up his support slowly and hopes to come in a strong second. That would give him momentum and he may become the top establishment guy along with Rubio.

[Andrew1]

It's a very modest surge. No one is going to be able to break out of the establishment field while it's so crowded.

Even if Kasich does come an impressive 2nd in NH, he's not well placed to win anywhere else in the next month.

[RI]

Anyone want to change their answer?

[yankeesfan]

Anyone want to change their answer?

It's one poll from ARG which has consistently shown more Kasich support than any other polling outfit.  But yes, I'll change my answer.  There appears to be somewhat of a surge. 

[mencken]

If it wasn't before, it will be now. The question is, does the circular firing squad continue, or does the anti-Trump vote coalesce behind him.

[Lief 🗽]

Mencken is right that to some extent this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, especially when there's a 4-way tie between the establishment guys. But a Kasich surge wouldn't be surpriding: he's the only one who is focused 100% on NH right now. Christie, Rubio, Trump and Cruz have been focused on Iowa so far this year. And Kasich is the only candidate who is getting zero negative ads or press at the moment. His ground game in NH is also supposedly decent.

[Asian Nazi]

Kasich finishing as the top establishment candidate would only hurt them, as I seriously doubt they're going to rally around someone who's profile outside of NH and OH ranges from "RINO!" to "who?"

[Former Democrat]

yes

[Former Democrat]

http://www.unionleader.com/Ovide_predicts_late_surge_for_Carly_Fiorina?template=mobileart

[pepper11]

The Kasichmentum is real...where did this come from?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I darn sure hope so!!!

[Lief 🗽]

Kasich was also endorsed by three NH newspapers in the last week.

[Progressive]

He's benefiting from not being attacked.

[gf20202]

He's benefiting from not being attacked.

I never thought it a possibility because I never thought there would be a peaking, but maybe Kasich is peaking too soon. This gives the Rubio/Bush/Christie of the world plenty of time to unload.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It wouldn't surprise me, given where Kasich has positioned himself ideologically. Whether or not it is enough of a surge to actually win the state is another thing entirely.

[bigedlb]

No.  Kasich has only risen because of his ad campaigns in NH.  He falls in support after debates, when people actually see him and realize that he's wacky wavy inflatable arms flailing tube man. 

ARG has the surge.  And,it is exaggerated

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I hope not. I may not vote if the choice ends up being someone who talks down to conservatives and is flimsy on Obamacare against the most liberal and borderline fascist candidate for the Republican nomination in decades.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I hope not. I may not vote if the choice ends up being someone who talks down to conservatives and is flimsy on Obamacare against the most liberal and borderline fascist candidate for the Republican nomination in decades.

Trump isn't liberal in anything resembling an ideologically consistent manner. He is a nationalist first and foremost: this is clear in his views on immigration, foreign policy, and trade. Beyond those issues, I don't think he cares about policy at all, and so on those matters he ends up with a muddled mess of positions that he seemingly pulls out of his rear.