When will the Utah legislature return to Democratic control?

[RFayette]

Does Atlas really think that every state will eventually be a solid blue (in normal talk) state?

EDIT: Except for Colorado and Iowa, which will soon be 80% GOP.  Maybe Michigan will follow suit eventually as well.

Not at all.  In terms of which states are trending to which party over the 20-30 year long run, this is my assessment.  Gray = trend unclear

LOL MISSISSIPPI and LOUISIANA? They aren't trending Democrat at all! They just had higher black turnout in 2012. If anything their getting even more republican as white grow conservative

It's more about the black population growing faster than the white population.  And the fact that in LA/MS/GA there are basically no white voters left for the GOP to flip in presidential races

Why do you have AL trending Republican though?  Isn't it susceptible to the same pressures as LA/MS/GA with increasing minority population?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

As soon as the Illinois legislature goes GOP, the Cubs win the World Series, the Browns win the Super Bowl, and Kim Jong-un abdicates his supreme leader position in favor of a democratic republic with free and fair elections.

[Virginiá]

I expect Mormons to trend Dem as the Republicans get more populist over time.  This obviously doesn't mean UT and ID will be Democratic states, but more like 55% R than 65-70% R by the 2030's.

As for IL, Chicago's economic troubles will worsen, leading to population loss relative to the rest of the state.  As unions become less relevant, Republicans will finally break through with the urban working class there.

Fair enough. Although, I can't really comment one way or the other on UT/ID. IL sounds plausible with population loss and the dissolution of the relevancy of unions, but I can only see this as a very long-term transformation, and that is assuming any number of things doesn't happen to reverse their woes or otherwise imperil the GOP in the state.

Btw Skill, I really like your posts!

[Young Conservative]

Does Atlas really think that every state will eventually be a solid blue (in normal talk) state?

EDIT: Except for Colorado and Iowa, which will soon be 80% GOP.  Maybe Michigan will follow suit eventually as well.

Not at all.  In terms of which states are trending to which party over the 20-30 year long run, this is my assessment.  Gray = trend unclear

LOL MISSISSIPPI and LOUISIANA? They aren't trending Democrat at all! They just had higher black turnout in 2012. If anything their getting even more republican as white grow conservative

It's more about the black population growing faster than the white population.  And the fact that in LA/MS/GA there are basically no white voters left for the GOP to flip in presidential races

Why do you have AL trending Republican though?  Isn't it susceptible to the same pressures as LA/MS/GA with increasing minority population?

The black population in MS and GA is clearly growing and had been growing for several decades in LA, where I am anticipating a post-Katrina rebound.  AL is only 26% black vs. 32% in LA, 37% in MS and 31% in GA, and AL has been at 25-26% black since 1970 so the black population isn't really growing.  There's also a more significant slice of cultural Appalachia in AL that still has room to trend R.  I also don't see AL attracting socially moderate whites the way Atlanta is and NOLA probably will with the film industry.

I can affirm from experience that white democrats  is louisiana are decreasing and black population isn't grown that much. Mississippi will literally never vote democrat