The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Ebsy]

So, if the votes are not tallied, do they still impact the number of delegates needed for a majority?

Regardless of abstentions, no-shows, votes for Carly Fiorina, you still need "a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention," i.e. 1237 delegates, in order to win the nomination.

Sorry for another question Erc, but does Rule 40 extend beyond the first ballot?

[Erc]

So, if the votes are not tallied, do they still impact the number of delegates needed for a majority?

Regardless of abstentions, no-shows, votes for Carly Fiorina, you still need "a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention," i.e. 1237 delegates, in order to win the nomination.

Sorry for another question Erc, but does Rule 40 extend beyond the first ballot?

Yes, but the current understanding seems to be that after the first ballot, new nominations can be made.  Since a lot of delegates become unbound after the first ballot (and the binding does restrict who they can support for Rule 40), it's entirely possible that Kasich (or some compromise candidate) could have their name placed into nomination on a subsequent ballot.

[Erc]

Yob responds to the recent Canegata justification attempt:

"Mr Canegata continues to attempt to break party rules to hand select the delegates after his preferred candidates lost at the caucus overwhelmingly. It didn't work when he falsified the documents to the RNC in September and it won't work this time either. The proper results were certified and I look forward to serving as a delegate in Cleveland."

[Erc]

FHQ kindly provides us a refresher as to how Rule 40 works in practice, with a clip from the 2012 convention.

The MN chair announced the delegation's votes (an overwhelming Paul victory due to Paulista action, plus 1 for Santorum and 6 for Romney), while the person on the main stage counted only the 6 for Romney.

Nevada (at around 42-43 min) is also interesting for historical reasons; it also features 5 abstentions.  It's followed up by New Hampshire, where the Secretary announces "9 Romney" followed by shouts from the crowd of "3 Ron Paul."

(Kasich also announces the Ohio delegation at around 51 minutes.)

[yankeesfan]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443

"If Trump heads into the convention without the magic number of 1,237, already more than a hundred delegates are poised to break with him on a second ballot, according to interviews with dozens of delegates, delegate candidates, operatives and party leaders.

In one of starkest examples of Trump’s lack of support, out of the 168 Republican National Committee members — each of whom doubles as a convention delegate — only one publicly supports Trump, and she knows of only a handful of others who support him privately."

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It's pretty clear to me that Trump has one shot at this: first ballot.

[Erc]

It should be stressed that only a small number of delegates have actually been selected so far (NH, AL, most of TN, LA, DC, most of IL, some of WY, all the territories, and all the RNC members).  That said, that's a pretty terrible sign for Trump.

Of course, it should be stressed that not supporting Trump doesn't mean they wouldn't vote for him if it came down to it.  If Trump should end up with more than 1200 or so bound delegates, it's possible enough unbound delegates could support him on the first ballot to avoid chaos.  Most of the RNC members are bound on the first ballot, of course.

That said, it does seem as if Trump is DOA after the first ballot, unless anyone thinks Trump is a reasonable compromise choice after ten ballots.

And I'm not so convinced personally that the "chaos" argument is going to be a major factor, especially if Cruz seems like he'd have the second ballot locked down (not at all guaranteed, of course, and very hard to determine for sure).

[Erc]

Looking forward to May 10:

West Virginia is the only state that directly elects its At-Large delegates and doesn't bind them based on the statewide vote.

This means that each voter will have to vote for 25(!) delegate candidates (22 At-Large and 3 in each CD).  Unlike in Pennsylvania, the delegates do have the candidate they are supporting next to them on the ballot, but it's still an arduous process for any voter, as the WV SoS warns.

Additionally, of the 22 At-Large delegates, there are some geographic restrictions (7 much be from each CD, and no more than 2 can be from each county).

All in all, this opens up the fun possibility that motivation gaps and weird geographic restrictions could deprive Trump of some delegates here despite a presumed win in the state.

[yankeesfan]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/167RlmxSvrotSiVHmaQuIio3BbGlCmrUgObX2kHM80yQ/edit#gid=0

Here's a pretty cool delegate tracker in case you guys haven't seen it.  It's tracked by @Taniel, the founder of the site http://campaigndiaries.com/.

He's one of the people in that Nate Silver twitter chain that Erc posted.

[Erc]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/167RlmxSvrotSiVHmaQuIio3BbGlCmrUgObX2kHM80yQ/edit#gid=0

Here's a pretty cool delegate tracker in case you guys haven't seen it.  It's tracked by @Taniel, the founder of the site http://campaigndiaries.com/.

He's one of the people in that Nate Silver twitter chain that Erc posted.

Astute readers may note that our Facebook stalking of the American Samoa delegation has made it into his tracking of that delegation (third sheet).

[yankeesfan]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/01/donald-trump-clears-the-air-with-republican-leaders/?_r=0

Mr. Trump was joined by his son, Donald J. Trump Jr.; his lawyer, Donald F. McGahn; his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski; the national political director Michael Glassner; and Mr. Trump’s spokeswoman, Hope Hicks.

When the discussion turned to the wrangling of delegates to the party’s nominating convention in Cleveland this July — an issue that has dogged Mr. Trump and his skeletal campaign organization for months — Mr. Priebus explained that states all had different rules governing how they were selected.

Mr. Trump has found himself at a disadvantage in some states, as his aides have allowed rival campaigns to peel some delegates away. Mr. Trump mentioned Louisiana, where he won the primary, but where Senator Ted Cruz is likely to come away with more delegates after exploiting peculiarities in the state’s system, according to those briefed on the meeting.

The situation in Louisiana infuriated Mr. Trump, who threatened this week to sue the Republican National Committee over it.

But when Mr. Priebus explained that each campaign needed to be prepared to fight for delegates at each state’s convention, Mr. Trump turned to his aides and suggested that they had not been doing what they needed to do, the people briefed on the meeting said.

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This is pretty funny.  Does Trump have people in his own campaign that are this incompetent, or are they actually double agents, working for the Establishment and Cruz?

[yankeesfan]

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2016/04/01/ted-cruz-colorado-gop-delegates/125400/

Ted Cruz is the favored candidate among the 587 party activists vying for one of the 13 national delegate slots on the state level — but the majority want to remain unpledged to the Cleveland convention, according to a final list released Friday by the Colorado Republican Party.

Cruz won the support of 30 percent of the potential statewide delegate candidates, compared to just 7 percent for Donald Trump. John Kasich finished with 2 percent, while Marco Rubio and Ben Carson registered 1 percent or less, the figures show.

But 60 percent want to keep their options open and remain unbound if they advance to the national GOP convention.

[Erc]

Update here in Minnesota:

The pledge form signed by delegate candidates (after some consideration, I've decided not to be one myself) pledges you to vote for the candidate you are bound to on the first ballot unless they withdraw (and stay withdrawn).  This is more in line with the initial rules from the MN GOP, and not the "clarification" issued by the MN RNC members.

As a result, I'm giving Rubio back his delegates here in MN; doesn't look like Ted Cruz can use it as a Rule 40 state, after all (not like he'd need it).

This basically leaves Oklahoma as the last big pile of Rubio delegates still under contention.

[yankeesfan]

http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Outsiders-Contested-Republican-Convention/dp/0692630163?ie=UTF8&keywords=contested%20chaos&qid=1459546792&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

I just bought John Yob's book Chaos: The Outsider's Guide to a Contested Republican National Convention.  Will let you guys know how it is.

Anyone else buy it yet?

[Bacon King]

http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Outsiders-Contested-Republican-Convention/dp/0692630163?ie=UTF8&keywords=contested%20chaos&qid=1459546792&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1

I just bought John Yob's book Chaos: The Outsider's Guide to a Contested Republican National Convention.  Will let you guys know how it is.

Anyone else buy it yet?

Yes! It's next on my reading list

[Erc]

As much as I am clearly anti-Canegata, I don't think I'm quite willing to support the Yobs by buying his book.

[Erc]

The MN GOP (not just the RNC members) have clarified that Rubio will lose his delegates if he is not on the first ballot:

http://mngop.com/update-just-the-facts/

As a result, I'm releasing Rubio's delegates in Minnesota again.  (Thanks to Liberty News for the tip!)

[Vosem]

BREAKING: @tedcruz sweeps all 3 delegates, 3 alternates #RNC2016 at CO CD1 convention #copolitics
4:02 PM - 2 Apr 2016 · Columbine, CO, United States

3/3 for Cruz so far

[dax00]

Looking forward to May 10:

West Virginia is the only state that directly elects its At-Large delegates and doesn't bind them based on the statewide vote.

This means that each voter will have to vote for 25(!) delegate candidates (22 At-Large and 3 in each CD).  Unlike in Pennsylvania, the delegates do have the candidate they are supporting next to them on the ballot, but it's still an arduous process for any voter, as the WV SoS warns.

Additionally, of the 22 At-Large delegates, there are some geographic restrictions (7 much be from each CD, and no more than 2 can be from each county).

All in all, this opens up the fun possibility that motivation gaps and weird geographic restrictions could deprive Trump of some delegates here despite a presumed win in the state.

I have a hard time imagining any stalwart supporter of any candidate wouldn't find a way to get all their 25 votes in for delegates only supporting their preferred candidate.

[Ebsy]

Follow @meganmesserly to watch the chaos that is the Clark County Democratic convention.

[Fargobison]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/716378868261765120

[Vosem]

Looking forward to May 10:

West Virginia is the only state that directly elects its At-Large delegates and doesn't bind them based on the statewide vote.

This means that each voter will have to vote for 25(!) delegate candidates (22 At-Large and 3 in each CD).  Unlike in Pennsylvania, the delegates do have the candidate they are supporting next to them on the ballot, but it's still an arduous process for any voter, as the WV SoS warns.

Additionally, of the 22 At-Large delegates, there are some geographic restrictions (7 much be from each CD, and no more than 2 can be from each county).

All in all, this opens up the fun possibility that motivation gaps and weird geographic restrictions could deprive Trump of some delegates here despite a presumed win in the state.

I have a hard time imagining any stalwart supporter of any candidate wouldn't find a way to get all their 25 votes in for delegates only supporting their preferred candidate.

Oh, of course they will, but -- will they make sure never to cast more than 2 votes for candidates from a single county? If not, the person from that county with the least votes will get thrown out.  And will they make sure not to vote for more than 7 people from the same congressional district? And what if they behave like in Illinois, and refuse to vote for people who support their candidate but have names they don't like? What if they mistakenly vote for 26 people instead of 25? Their entire vote gets disqualified. Lots of people will probably simply may undervote if they can't find some final names who support their candidate (this will depend on how delegates are organized on the ballot; by candidate they support or by last name?), or they may vote for a few names they recognize who don't support their candidate. It'll be chaos.

[OkThen]

Maybe a glimpse of good news for Trump on the delegate front? Most expected him to get shutout in ND.

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/716404293117616129

[dax00]

Maybe a glimpse of good news for Trump on the delegate front? Most expected him to get shutout in ND.

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/716404293117616129

My projection, which had Trump at 1233, only anticipated 1 Trump delegate from North Dakota. Perhaps, I should increase that number.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am not so sure that Rule 40 prevents a white knight candidate.  All it says is that a candidate needs to get majority support of eight state delegations.  If a white knight comes and gets the votes to win, he will get a majority from at least states (almost certainly).

[dax00]

Sanders won the Carson City County Convention in state delegates by 29-28.