The Delegate Fight: 2016

[The Other Castro]

Erc are you running to be a national delegate at your district's convention?

[Erc]

Erc are you running to be a national delegate at your district's convention?

I thought about it, but decided against it.  Would be logistically tough for me, I don't have especially long standing in the GOP here, and, well, I wouldn't win.

[The Other Castro]

Also, I was looking through your spreadsheet for the current preferences of bound delegates to predict how many delegates Trump will lose on the 2nd ballot. Right now it looks like Trump has 541 delegates so far that become unbound after the 1st ballot, of which 49 go to Cruz, 1 goes to Kasich, 18 stay with Trump, and 473 are unknown. That's about a 72% pickup rate for Cruz, which bodes well for his chances on the 2nd ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

The Cruz campaign claims that their Pennsylvania delegate operation is so good that they're going to get more than half the delegates even if he comes in a distant third in the popular vote:

link

OTOH, this story paints a rather different picture:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-s-new-delegate-strategy-takes-root-pennsylvania-n558681

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The Carson tally in Westchester is clearly a glitch. I called the BOE and just got babble. Folks called in the wrong numbers i was told. Really, all across the county? No, there is a machine glitch or something. I called the press in Westchester. They are on it. I told the BOE to be very worried. They are facing a huge cf. They moved me up the ladder when I said my next step was the press. But still the same babble, but they said they would look into it.

And like magic, the Carson vote drops to the appropriate number. The website or somebody moved some of the Trump voters (too bad it was him that was cheated of votes) to Carson. That has been corrected. Maybe my phone call made a difference, of the call be the press after I talked to the press did.

Oh, yes, you're name brings people to their knees (no pun intended).   Congrats. 

[Gass3268]

The Cruz campaign claims that their Pennsylvania delegate operation is so good that they're going to get more than half the delegates even if he comes in a distant third in the popular vote:

link

OTOH, this story paints a rather different picture:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-s-new-delegate-strategy-takes-root-pennsylvania-n558681

Everything that I've heard is that a majority of the delegates in PA have said that they will follow the will of the voters in their CD.

If Trump gets >150 in CA, does IN still matter for him?

As long as he gets 6-9 delegates there, probably not.

[Erc]

If Trump gets >150 in CA, does IN still matter for him?

Not really, though it would remove some residual uncertainty as it would put him over the top among pledged delegates alone most likely.

[Ebsy]

Not sure if you saw this Erc:

The proposal, which was sponsored by Solomon Yue, an RNC committeeman from Oregon, was intended to further empower the convention’s delegates — injecting the convention, Yue argued, with a degree of transparency at a time of unprecedented scrutiny of the party’s internal procedures.

The vote bitterly divided the party, pitting a small group eager to advance the proposal against RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and his allies, who warned that implementing the change would further inflame Donald Trump, who has accused the committee of overseeing a “rigged” process that’s stacked against him.

But after Priebus last week came out against it, Bruce Ash, an Arizona RNC member and the chairman of the Rules Committee tasked with overseeing the hearing on Yue’s measure, wrote a letter to fellow committee members in which he accused Priebus of a “breach of trust.” Ash accused Priebus of working to scuttle the bill and said Priebus was working behind the scenes to ensure it didn’t appear before the Rules Committee at this week’s annual spring meeting here. Yue, meanwhile, wrote a letter of his own in which he accused the RNC of “institutional tyranny.”

[Mr. Morden]

On the Pennsylvania delegate battle:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/277077-gop-reps-boosting-trumps-insider-game-in-pennsylvania

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[Erc]

Tomorrow is Saturday (aka Convention Day).  Listing GOP contests here only:

We've got state conventions in Kentucky (25 delegates), Maine (20), and Utah (37).  I'd expect Cruz to do well in Maine and Utah, but Kentucky is less clear; Cruz has generally lost at the CD level to more generic Uncommitted slates.

We also have a convention in SC-6 (3 delegates) and the caucus in FL-11 (3 delegates).

Most importantly for the first ballot, we have the first of Minnesota's District Conventions, in CDs 3, 4, and 6, picking 3 delegates each.  Five of them (2 in 3 & 4, and 1 in 6) are Rubio delegates, who will be unbound on the first ballot barring rules changes.  I've been assuming that Cruz will sweep in Minnesota; we'll see this weekend whether such an assumption is justified.

[SkyeZee]

In GA-14, Leanne DeFoor said on a 2/18 post that she is a Cruz supporter and former Rand Paul supporter (facebook.com/UWG-College-Republicans-157889257652107)

In OK-4 I believe Steve Byas is supporting Ted Cruz as shown throughout his Facebook (facebook.com/steve.byas)

In NC-4 the delegates are Ted Hicks, Rod Chaney and Larry Beckler. Ted (Theodore) Hicks is part of Cruz's leadership team (facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1733386116920299&type=3&l=6fda94779b)

[Erc]

In GA-14, Leanne DeFoor said on a 2/18 post that she is a Cruz supporter and former Rand Paul supporter (facebook.com/UWG-College-Republicans-157889257652107)

In OK-4 I believe Steve Byas is supporting Ted Cruz as shown throughout his Facebook (facebook.com/steve.byas)

In NC-4 the delegates are Ted Hicks, Rod Chaney and Larry Beckler. Ted (Theodore) Hicks is part of Cruz's leadership team (facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1733386116920299&type=3&l=6fda94779b)

Thanks for the tips!

[Mr. Morden]

So, regarding the loyalties of all those delegate candidates in Pennsylvania.  The Cruz campaign is apparently handing out lists of their preferred delegate candidates at Cruz rallies, and will have people across the state handing out the list at polling places on Tuesday.  Supposedly, this is the list:



The Trump campaign is following suit.  Here’s a Trumpian list:

http://www.kellerfordelegate.com/#!know-your-delegates/s4vv7

There are other lists out there trying to establish delegate loyalties, but they don’t all agree with each other.  Examples:

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-delegates-presidential-picks-20160420-story.html
http://www.hannity.com/articles/election-493995/pennsylvania-primary-delegate-guide-14631159/
http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/10253036-74/district-whoever-wins

I guess we’ll have to wait and see on Tuesday if either candidate manages to get their people elected, or if the voters just pick the first three names on the ballot or something.

[DemPGH]

The Trump campaign is following suit.  Here’s a Trumpian list:

http://www.kellerfordelegate.com/#!know-your-delegates/s4vv7

Outstanding. I spent about thirty minutes or so yesterday looking for something like that. I finally found something in a local newspaper somewhere that didn't sound very decisive. So that's good, I'll pass that along. This nonsense makes me wish we had an electoral college style system for the nomination process.

[Classic Conservative]

Do we have any updates on the caucuses/conventions. Also Mike Lee has been urging delegates to choose the Offical Cruz Slate.

[Fargobison]

Do we have any updates on the caucuses/conventions. Also Mike Lee has been urging delegates to choose the Offical Cruz Slate.

Cruz cleaned up in ME(full Cruz slate elected) and he is doing well in MN.

[The Other Castro]

Cruz won all 9 delegates from Minnesota CDs 3, 4, and 6. 5 of these were pickups from Rubio I believe.

[Ljube]

The more delegates Cruz steals, the more votes he loses.

[The Other Castro]

The more delegates Cruz steals, the more votes he loses.

Conventions are held to decide delegates, and Cruz's delegates received the most votes. How is that stealing?

[Ljube]

The more delegates Cruz steals, the more votes he loses.

Conventions are held to decide delegates, and Cruz's delegates received the most votes. How is that stealing?

The system is rigged. It should be votes that decide the delegates, not some conventions.

[dax00]

This seems to be the official Trump PA preferred delegate slate, as posted on Twitter

[The Other Castro]

Lynne Ryan, Ash Khare, C Arnold McClure, Vicki Lightcap, Sean Shute, Joseph Lamantia, Tina Pickett, Mario Scavello, Richard Morelli, James Vasilko, Gilbert Cox, Lauren Casper, Tom Ellis, Scott Uehlinger, and John Petrarca all said they would vote for the district winner yet are on Trump's slate. Interestingly enough, Trump actually picks district winners or uncommitted instead of his own supporters in CD 3 and twice in CD 10 and CD 12.

[Ljube]

Lynne Ryan, Ash Khare, C Arnold McClure, Vicki Lightcap, Sean Shute, Joseph Lamantia, Tina Pickett, Mario Scavello, Richard Morelli, James Vasilko, Gilbert Cox, Lauren Casper, Tom Ellis, Scott Uehlinger, and John Petrarca all said they would vote for the district winner yet are on Trump's slate. Interestingly enough, Trump actually picks district winners or uncommitted instead of his own supporters in CD 3 and twice in CD 10 and CD 12.

The will of the people trumps the selfish interests of any particular campaign. That's what Trump stands for. That's who he is endorsing.

[The Other Castro]

Trump's slate makes a lot more sense to me than Cruz's actually. It looks like Trump is endorsing some district winner delegates in CDs where he doesn't have enough supporters, since a district winner is better than a certain Cruz supporter. Meanwhile, Cruz just left some CDs incomplete where he didn't have enough supporters. In addition, Trump filled up to 3 people per CD while Cruz put in over 3 people in two of the CDs, which could result in fewer votes between them. Am I missing something here or is Trump playing the delegate game better than Cruz in PA?

[BCSWowbagger]

Conventions are held to decide delegates, and Cruz's delegates received the most votes. How is that stealing?

The system is rigged. It should be votes that decide the delegates, not some conventions.

Convention members are elected by voters. 

Binding primaries were an invention of the liberal-progressive movement, led by George McGovern in 1972, in order to erode the republican part of our republic and replace it with the kind of direct democracy our Founding Fathers feared and loathed.  The GOPe, which was very powerful in the 1970s, then adopted the liberal system, which was convenient for them, because it just so happens that grassroots candidates like Goldwater and Reagan (who was a major threat at the time) do much better in convention systems than big-money mass-marketed primaries.

What we ought to do is abolish binding primaries entirely.  Every state should run the way Colorado did this year: you vote for state delegates who represent you and select national delegates.  No more of this direct-democracy rubbish.  That's how we chose our presidential candidates for nearly 150 years, and it's how we should choose them for the next 150 years, too.

Sadly, the GOPe does not listen to me when I tweet this at them.

***

Anyway, arguing about delegate selection is not why I'm here.  I'm here to share this with erc, in case he didn't see it yet:

facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153428635421367&id=259920881366

Every Wisconsin CD-level delegate and alternate.  Still working on loyalties.