The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

So are you basically in agreement with this guy on Twitter in terms of how you allocate the Republican delegates from each state?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cch5Rr6WEAEoxh7.jpg:large

I disagree in Georgia (rules issue), Oklahoma (rules issue), Tennessee (for completeness I made an early call in CD 9 despite no data), Texas (different CD results).

[Erc]

Remaining uncertainties from the night:

• Arkansas is still at 96% reporting.  It's possible some of the CD results might change, but I doubt it.
• Georgia.  This one is a mess.  Rounding rules are very unclear, and there's still uncertainty in my mind as to how to allocate the RNC members.
• Oklahoma.  I follow FHQ here in saying that At-Large delegates are doled out proportionally to the candidate's share of the total vote, and that any delegates left over remain Uncommitted.  The Green Papers disagrees.
• Tennessee.  CD results are still incomplete, especially in CD 9 (Memphis).  I've provisionally divided the delegates 2 for Trump and 1 for Cruz, but it's a tight 3-way race in Shelby County overall, so who knows.
• Texas.  CD results are potentially still incomplete, but I doubt the final result will change here.

[Erc]

Carson's Delegates

Carson has earned 8 delegates so far.  His three in Iowa and three in Virginia appear to be bound to him on the first ballot still, though whether that would be enforced is unclear.

In Nevada, Carson has some options.  He may can choose to keep his delegates bound to him, release them, or reallocate his delegates among the other candidates.  If the latter, Trump and Cruz would each gain one delegate.  If he suspends "or otherwise discontinues" his campaign at any point, he loses the option to keep his delegates bound to him.

Even though Carson has not formally suspended his campaign, I'm going to remove his column.

There's still the possibility that Carson does pick up another delegate going forward if he keeps a zombie campaign going...most notably in North Carolina (0.7% could be enough to win him a delegate there).

[Erc]

Northern Marianas (D): March 12

Overview
11 Delegates (0.23% of total)
Closed Caucus (open to all who wish to participate as Democrats; one can register at the caucus)
6 At-Large
5 Superdelegates

Details

6 At-Large delegates are apportioned based on the caucus vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Del. Kilili Camacho Sablan, Chair Rosicky F. Camacho, Vice Chair Thersita B. Pertduo, John Tunela, Emelia S. Chargualaf

The Green Papers: ME-D

On the same day as the Northern Marianas Caucus are Iowa's County Conventions, whose results may determine who wins the last delegate out of Iowa.  Clinton is still heavily favored.

[Erc]

March 15 Democratic Primaries

Florida (D)

Overview
246 Delegates (5.16% of total)
Closed Primary
140 District
46 At-Large
28 PLEO At-Large
32 Superdelegates

Details

46 At-Large and 28 PLEO At-Large delegates are awarded based on the global vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 24; 7 for CDs 20,21; 6 for CDs 2,5,13,14,16,18,22,23; 5 for CDs 6,7,8,9,10,11,12,15; 4 for CDs 3,4,17,19,26,27; 3 for CDs 1,25.

Superdelegates

Clinton (23): Sen. Bill Nelson, Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Ted Deutch, Rep. Corrine Brown, Rep. Alcee Hastings, Rep. Frederica Wilson, Rep. Kathy Castor, Rep. Lois Frankel, Chair Allison Tant, Vice Chair Alan Clendenin, Jon Ausman, Mitchell Ceasar, Bret Berlin, Joe Falk, Annette Taddeo, Tony Hill, Angel Gomez, Alan Williams, Joyce Cusack, Cindy Lerner, Stephen Bittel, Alma Gonzalez, Rep. Gwen Graham

Sanders (2): Rep. Alan Grayson, Nancy C. Jacobson

Uncommitted (7): Ex-DNC Chair Kenneth Curtis (Clinton 2008), DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Clinton 2008, officially neutral), Katherine Fernandez Rundle, Carlos Odio, Rick Boylan, Alma Gonzales, DNC Treasurer Andy Tobias (officially uncommitted despite donations to Ready for Hillary), Marian Williams

Useful Links
The Green Papers: FL
FL Delegate Selection Plan

Illinois (D)

Overview
182 Delegates (3.82% of total)
Open Primary
34 At-Large
20 PLEO At-Large
102 by CD
26 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 34 and 20 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CDs 1,7; 8 for CD 2; 7 for CD 9; 6 for CDs 5,12,17; 5 for CDs 3,4,6,10,11,13,16; 4 for CDs 8,14,15,18.

Superdelegates

Clinton (22): Sen. Dick Durbin, Reps. Cheri Bustos, Robin Kelly, Jan Schakowsky, Bill Foster, Luis Gutiérrez, Michael Quigley, Danny Davis, Tammy Duckworth and Bobby Rush, Laura Ricketts, Jayne Mazzotti, Vice Chair Karen Yarbrough, Carol Ronen, Rajiv Fernando, Steve Powell, John Cullerton, John Keller, Carrie Austin, Jerry Costello, James Claybonre, Iris Martinez

Sanders (1): Rep. Dan Lipinski

Uncommitted (3): President Barack Obama, Chair Michael Madigan, Dan Hynes (O'Malley)

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IL-D
IL Delegate Selection Plan

Missouri (D)

Overview
84 Delegates (1.76% of total)
Open Primary
15 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
47 by CD
13 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 15 and 9 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 10 for CD 1; 7 for CD 5; 6 for CD 2; 5 for CDs 3,4,6,8; 4 for CD 7.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: Clinton 12 - Uncommitted 1

Confirmed Clinton (11): Dick Gephardt, Gov. Jay Nixon, Sen. Claire McCaskill, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, Rep. Lacy Clay, Brian Wahby, Doug Brooks, Sandy Querry, Melba Curls, Vice Chair Darlene Green, Sly James

Other (2): Chair Roy Temple, Matt Robinson

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MO-D
MO Delegate Selection Plan

North Carolina (D)

Overview
121 Delegates (2.54% of total)
Half-Open Primary
23 At-Large
14 PLEO At-Large
70 by CD
14 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 23 and 14 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CDs 1,4,12; 6 for CD 13; 5 for CDs 5,6,9,10; 4 for CDs 2,3,7,8,11

Superdelegates

Clinton [8]: Rep. G.K. Butterfield, Rep. David Price, Rep. Alma Adams, Akilah Ensley, Jeannette Council, J. David Cox, Olma Echeverri, Janet Cowell

Sanders (1): Jake Quinn

Uncommitted (5): Chair Patsy Keever, Vice Chair Zack Hawkins, Pat Cotham, Joyce Brayboy, Everett Ward

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NC-D
NC Delegate Selection Plan

Ohio (D)

Overview
160 Delegates (3.36% of total)
Half-Open Primary
31 At-Large
19 PLEO At-Large
93 by CD
17 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 31 and 19 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 17 for CD 11; 12 for CD 3; 8 for CDs 9, 13; 4 for CDs 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,14,15,16.

The 17 delegates for CD 11 (Cleveland-Akron) may be the largest delegate haul for a single CD in the country.

Superdelegates

Clinton (14): Ex-DNC Chair David Wilhelm, Sen. Sherrod Brown, Reps. Tim Ryan, Joyce Beatty and Marcia Fudge, Isabel Framer, Jocelyn Bucaro, Mark Mallory, Kathleen Clyde, Pat Frost Brooks, Ronald Malone, Joe Rugola, Nan Whaley, Valerie McCall

Sanders (1): Rep. Marcy Kaptur

Uncommitted (2): Chair David Pepper, Vice Chair Rhine McLin

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OH-D
OH Delegate Selection Plan

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

• Tennessee.  CD results are still incomplete, especially in CD 9 (Memphis).  I've provisionally divided the delegates 2 for Trump and 1 for Cruz, but it's a tight 3-way race in Shelby County overall, so who knows.

This is correct - looking at the unofficial precinct results, its:
Trump: 32.2%
Cruz: 27.6%
Rubio: 23.8%
Kasich: 7.3%
Carson: 6.5%

[Erc]

• Tennessee.  CD results are still incomplete, especially in CD 9 (Memphis).  I've provisionally divided the delegates 2 for Trump and 1 for Cruz, but it's a tight 3-way race in Shelby County overall, so who knows.

This is correct - looking at the unofficial precinct results, its:
Trump: 32.2%
Cruz: 27.6%
Rubio: 23.8%
Kasich: 7.3%
Carson: 6.5%

Thanks!  I was unable to track those down myself.

[Erc]

A couple new, more visual features, are linked in my signature.  I'd post the images directly here, but am having trouble getting them to work with the forum.

The first is a map of the GOP delegates, with one small square = one delegate.

The second is a visual display of how close Trump is to a majority of delegates; what I like to call Trump Tetris.  If Trump hits that red line, he wins the nomination on the first ballot barring shenanigans.  The dashed red line below (which Trump has not crossed) represents 50% of delegates in the states that have already voted.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Why was Carson removed? He hasn't dropped out yet.

[Erc]

Why was Carson removed? He hasn't dropped out yet.

The man acknowledges he has no path forward, and he only had 8 delegates to begin with--which is less than the number of delegates for Uncommitted/Other, at this point.  All the information about his 8 delegates is still listed on the main page (albeit in the notes).  I've clarified the Nevada note to say that he has the option to keep his delegates.

Should Carson not actually suspend his campaign on Friday and actively tries to continue campaigning, I may restore his column.

(Perhaps closer to the truth here: I was skirting the 11,000 character limit and jumped on the opportunity to eliminate the column).

[Erc]

Delegate Selection

I'm going to be fleshing out the "Delegate Selection" parts of these summaries more, as this part of the process becomes more important.

As a preview, here's a map of the various ways the states (and DC) choose their delegates:

Red = State Conventions
Blue = Chosen by Candidates
Green = Directly Elected
Gray = Chosen by State Central Committee

Some of the distinctions are trivial.  In some states where the delegates are directly elected, the delegates are well vetted by the campaigns, so it's essentially the same as a blue state.  This is the case in West Virginia, for example.  In others, like PA, it's a free for all.   DC acts more like a convention, but it's a one-stage process so I've colored it green.

Some states where the candidates choose delegates, there is some veto power by a party body (in CT, the State Central Committee gets to approve the slates).

Some states have a hybrid method (one method for one type of delegates, another for another type); the map above shows the method used for the majority of delegates in the state.

All territories directly elect their delegates.

Of course, some states also bind their delegates for an infinite number of ballots, in which case the method of selection isn't critical.

[/]

A couple new, more visual features, are linked in my signature.  I'd post the images directly here, but am having trouble getting them to work with the forum.

The first is a map of the GOP delegates, with one small square = one delegate.

The second is a visual display of how close Trump is to a majority of delegates; what I like to call Trump Tetris.  If Trump hits that red line, he wins the nomination on the first ballot barring shenanigans.  The dashed red line below (which Trump has not crossed) represents 50% of delegates in the states that have already voted.

Very nice!

[Erc]

Delegate Binding

In similar fashion, a map of what ballot delegates become unbound after.

Green = 0 ballots
Red = 1 ballot
Blue = 2 ballots
Yellow = 3 ballots
Gray = Never, unless other conditions met.

Note that some states have different unbinding provisions for different types of delegates; again, this is for the majority of each delegation.

Many delegates have provisions for early unbinding of delegates: i.e. if a candidate releases them, or they fall below some place or percentage threshold in the balloting, or (in the case of AL) a 2/3rds majority of the delegation votes to release themselves.  Only Ohio seems to have no procedure for unbinding.

In states where the binding is a result of an RNC fiat (WY, CO, WV, IL), I'm assuming that fiat ends after the first ballot.

In the territories, PR/VI/MP unbind after the first ballot, whereas GU & AS never bind.

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, if I'm reading the rules in LA right, if Rubio falls below 16.67% in a CD (which is possible based on the polls released in the past 24 hours), he should get 0 delegates, right? And in that case, would the third delegate be unbound in the same way state delegates are?

[Erc]

Erc, if I'm reading the rules in LA right, if Rubio falls below 16.67% in a CD (which is possible based on the polls released in the past 24 hours), he should get 0 delegates, right? And in that case, would the third delegate be unbound in the same way state delegates are?

It's unclear.  The rules just say that those delegates are "apportioned...proportionally."

Who actually does the apportioning is unclear, and would probably be resolved at the State Convention.  All the references to the left-over delegates being given to Uncommitted just refer to At-Large delegates, not to the District Delegates.

I think it's entirely possible that, in the event of Trump 45% Cruz 34% Rubio 15%, Rubio could still get a delegate...but it could easily go to Trump.  There's certainly some discretion here.

[Erc]

I'm also going to start keeping track of the actual delegates (i.e. their names) as soon as we know them.

One of the first states we know the identities of the delegates is in Alabama.  No one filed for one particular Trump delegate slot, so it is currently vacant.  That slot will presumably be filled by an Alternate, chosen by the Alabama Republican Executive Committee.

[Erc]

So are you basically in agreement with this guy on Twitter in terms of how you allocate the Republican delegates from each state?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cch5Rr6WEAEoxh7.jpg:large

Checking versus Taniel's updated numbers, my only difference right now is in Georgia, where we disagree on the rules interpretation.

I've been staring at the Georgia Rules for far too long, and I think I need some fresh eyes on the issue.  Here's the relevant part of the GA GOP rules:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looking particularly at that last line, it's unclear to me how to deal with the RNC delegates.  I see two possible interpretations.

(1) "For the purpose of this allocation, RNC Delegates...shall be considered at large delegates" is the phrase that matters.  The RNC Delegates are considered at large delegates, and are thus allocated in the same pool with them (a pool of 34 delegates total).  The last phrase, "and be allocated to the candidate receiving the largest percentage of the vote," is just telling us that the Trump's share of the pool of 34 delegates happens to include the 3 RNC members.

(2) "and be allocated to the candidate receiving the largest percentage of the vote" is the phrase that matters.  Trump is allocated the 3 RNC member delegates, and separately the 31 other At-Large delegates are divided between the candidates.  The phrase "shall be considered at large delegates" is just saying that they are allocated on the basis of the statewide vote, i.e., to the At-Large winner, though they are allocated in a different fashion than the other At-Large delegates.

My personal interpretation has always been (1); FHQ and Taniel go with (2), and I don't think (1) occurs to them.

What do you think?

[Bacon King]

Erc your interpretation had not occurred to me, but after reading the GA GOP rules it does seem more correct than the other interpretation. The important part for me is that the subsection of the rules your above quote is in starts with:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

i.e. the RNC delegates are included as part of the proportional allocation (and therefore not just awarded to the winner)

However what really matters is how the state party itself interprets that rule, so the only way to really find out what's going to happen would be to contact them

[Erc]

Erc your interpretation had not occurred to me, but after reading the GA GOP rules it does seem more correct than the other interpretation. The important part for me is that the subsection of the rules your above quote is in starts with:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

i.e. the RNC delegates are included as part of the proportional allocation (and therefore not just awarded to the winner)

However what really matters is how the state party itself interprets that rule, so the only way to really find out what's going to happen would be to contact them

Hmm...hadn't thought of that point.  Not sure if I'd want to build my case on it, but it's more evidence certainly.

Note also that both the AP and CNN, while their delegate totals in Georgia are incomplete, both have Cruz at 18 delegates in the state.  There's no way to get Cruz to 18 delegates without giving him some share of the RNC delegates.  It could be that they're working with old CD results, or are just plain wrong (as they were with NH), but it's another piece of evidence.

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, I think Green Papers is wrong about Michigan delegate allocation. Check out the MI GOP rules for delegate allocation: http://www.migop.org/assets/files/Rules_for_the_Selection_of_Delegates_and_Alternates.pdf

It looks like, at least according to the party rules, MI is WTA if anyone gets >50%; otherwise, each CD is WTA (for three delegates each) and the remaining delegates are proportional based on a 15% threshold. (see page 17)

[Erc]

Erc, I think Green Papers is wrong about Michigan delegate allocation. Check out the MI GOP rules for delegate allocation: http://www.migop.org/assets/files/Rules_for_the_Selection_of_Delegates_and_Alternates.pdf

It looks like, at least according to the party rules, MI is WTA if anyone gets >50%; otherwise, each CD is WTA (for three delegates each) and the remaining delegates are proportional based on a 15% threshold. (see page 17)

Hmmm...so, the thing to note here is that those Rules are in violation of RNC rules requiring proportionality before March 15.  The RNC has clarified, generally, that WTA-by-CD is not proportional, and is not allowed before March 15.  (Hence all the changes for the Super Tuesday primaries from WTA by CD to Winner-Take-Most). 

So I think those rules are outdated; I don't know where to find a new copy, but the RNC Nominating Process Book agrees with The Green Papers here.  The book is highly terse, but was drawn up by the RNC based on the most recent submissions by the states (as of December 2015).

[Erc]

Kansas Results

At the last second, Kasich breaks the threshold and Rubio breaks into 2nd in CD 3, resulting in:

Cruz 24 - Trump 9 - Rubio 6 - Kasich 1

The last batch of results saw Cruz and Trump each lose 2 delegates, Rubio gaining 3, and Kasich gaining 1.

In the unlikely event the RNC members are thrown into the statewide pool, Cruz loses two and Trump and Kasich each gain one.

[Vosem]

Kansas Results

At the last second, Kasich breaks the threshold and Rubio breaks into 2nd in CD 3, resulting in:

Cruz 24 - Trump 9 - Rubio 6 - Kasich 1

The last batch of results saw Cruz and Trump each lose 2 delegates, Rubio gaining 3, and Kasich gaining 1.

In the unlikely event the RNC members are thrown into the statewide pool, Cruz loses two and Trump and Kasich each gain one.

Why does Kasich only get 1? Shouldn't he get 0.107 of 25 delegates = 2.68 is rounded up to 3? I have the statewide ones breaking 12C-6T-4R-3K, with Cruz getting a bonus of 3 RNC members. What am I doing wrong?

[Erc]

Kansas Results

At the last second, Kasich breaks the threshold and Rubio breaks into 2nd in CD 3, resulting in:

Cruz 24 - Trump 9 - Rubio 6 - Kasich 1

The last batch of results saw Cruz and Trump each lose 2 delegates, Rubio gaining 3, and Kasich gaining 1.

In the unlikely event the RNC members are thrown into the statewide pool, Cruz loses two and Trump and Kasich each gain one.

Why does Kasich only get 1? Shouldn't he get 0.107 of 25 delegates = 2.68 is rounded up to 3? I have the statewide ones breaking 12C-6T-4R-3K, with Cruz getting a bonus of 3 RNC members. What am I doing wrong?

Here's where the rounding rules come into play.  Delegates are given out starting with the winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up.

Cruz has 12.18, rounding up to 13.  Trump has 5.90, rounding up to 6.  Rubio has 4.21, rounding up to 5.  Kasich has 3.02, but as Cruz and Rubio rounded (way) up, Kasich is stuck with only 1 delegate, rather than 3.

[Erc]

Maine GOP just announced its results:

Cruz 12 - Trump 9 - Kasich 2

Maine again has weird Kansas-style rounding rules, moving a delegate from Kasich to Trump.