The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Ljube]

I can't speak for all members of Fairfield County (CT-4), but we're definitely the type that are receptive to Kasich.

Battleground Connecticut? You betcha!

[°Leprechaun]

Maybe nobody cares but one of the super delegates is endorsing O'Malley.

[Erc]

Maybe nobody cares but one of the super delegates is endorsing O'Malley.

Dan Hynes? That's an old endorsement from when he was still in the race.  I doubt he's planning to vote for him at Philadelphia.

[Bacon King]

Erc can you start a blog and put all your posts in this topic on it? I keep wanting to link people to your stuff but I keep forgetting it's all just forum posts

[Oakvale]

^^^

[Хahar 🤔]

Erc can you start a blog and put all your posts in this topic on it? I keep wanting to link people to your stuff but I keep forgetting it's all just forum posts

Yes, Erc, please do this, because I want to link people to this all the time but I don't really want to link people to the Atlas Forum because then they'll see my nearly 40,000 posts.

[Erc]

I had been thinking of doing that this cycle, but never quite got around to it.

I'll see if I can cook something up tomorrow.

[joshautry]

I'm new to this forum, and there's a lot of great stuff here. What I'm wondering is whether there's any way to keep track of how many unbound R delegates, if any, have came out saying who they'll vote for at the convention. I heard, for example, that the Virgin Island delegates were going to meet with the respective campaigns and then declare support for a candidate.

[Erc]

I'm new to this forum, and there's a lot of great stuff here. What I'm wondering is whether there's any way to keep track of how many unbound R delegates, if any, have came out saying who they'll vote for at the convention. I heard, for example, that the Virgin Island delegates were going to meet with the respective campaigns and then declare support for a candidate.

Right now, the only unpledged delegate to declare is the governor of Guam, who supports Cruz.  Keep an eye out here, where I'll be trying to keep better track of them going forward.

[joshautry]

Thanks!

[Erc]

The new blog is up and running at the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com.  Just the main GOP post at the moment, but I'll be transferring more in the coming days.

[The Free North]

I can't speak for all members of Fairfield County (CT-4), but we're definitely the type that are receptive to Kasich.

Agreed, I think Trump edges out a win in CT, but he wont win CT-4 although I could see him winning most other CDs.

[Erc]

The new blog is up and running at the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com.  Just the main GOP post at the moment, but I'll be transferring more in the coming days.

The tumblr has now been updated to include all the GOP states that have already voted (plus Colorado and North Dakota).  Future GOP states, all the Democrats, and other support/explanatory posts will be migrated later.

[Ebsy]

Sanders just conceded Missouri, so the rest of the outstanding delegates can be awarded if you were holding off.

[Erc]

Consensus seems to be that Rubio is considered to have "dropped out" for Alaska purposes, so his delegates are reallocated there.  Cruz picks up 3 and Trump picks up 2.

This gives Cruz a 6th Rule 40 state.

Louisiana, where he apparently dominated the Convention, is also another likely Rule 40 target for Cruz.  We've confirmed that at least 2 of the Uncommitted (and potentially all 5) are for Cruz; he'd only need to pick up one of the Rubio delegates (which the convention also chose) to get a majority of the delegation.

This would leave just one state for him to pick up.  Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, and even American Samoa are great targets, as is Guam.  And there are plenty of WTA Plains and Mountain West States coming in May and June that should be favorable to him, as well.

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, Alaska GOP actually gave 2 to Cruz and 3 to Trump, so it's a tie now: http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa

[Erc]

Erc, Alaska GOP actually gave 2 to Cruz and 3 to Trump, so it's a tie now: http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa

There is literally no math by which that is the correct way to do it.  Cruz will almost certainly challenge this and win.

There is a complicated three-stage rounding formula, but pretty much no matter how you slice it, Cruz should get 52% of the delegates and Trump 48%, which gives you a 15-13 split after rounding.

I am keeping my count as it is, though I will make a note of this on the main page.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know you probably haven't thought this far ahead, yet, but is New York WTA or how are they divided up?

[The Other Castro]

I know you probably haven't thought this far ahead, yet, but is New York WTA or how are they divided up?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4940246#msg4940246

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know you probably haven't thought this far ahead, yet, but is New York WTA or how are they divided up?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4940246#msg4940246

Thanks!

[Erc]

Erc, Alaska GOP actually gave 2 to Cruz and 3 to Trump, so it's a tie now: http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa

There is literally no math by which that is the correct way to do it.  Cruz will almost certainly challenge this and win.

There is a complicated three-stage rounding formula, but pretty much no matter how you slice it, Cruz should get 52% of the delegates and Trump 48%, which gives you a 15-13 split after rounding.

I am keeping my count as it is, though I will make a note of this on the main page.

Found a possible interpretation in the AK GOP Rules that gives a 14-14 split:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Using this formula (rather than the raw votes) would give a 14-14 split based on the Trump-Cruz vote, assuming there's no intermediate rounding of the Rubio vote.

This does seem to contradict (4) though, and does require a particular reading of (9).

I'll update the count later.

[Ljube]

The way things look now, every delegate could be crucial.

[Erc]

The way things look now, every delegate could be crucial.

This is especially crucial as it makes the difference between AK being a Rule 40 state for Cruz or not.  I'll imagine he'll reach 8 states without AK, but it would have been quite nice for the Cruz campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

I know you probably haven't thought this far ahead, yet, but is New York WTA or how are they divided up?

Bushie, Erc has already explained the delegate allocation rules for every state on the GOP side, yet you keep asking these questions.  Just go to the print version of this thread (so you can see everything on one page):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=printpage;topic=226605.0

and then search for whichever state you're interested in, and you'll find your answer for whichever state you care about.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know you probably haven't thought this far ahead, yet, but is New York WTA or how are they divided up?

Bushie, Erc has already explained the delegate allocation rules for every state on the GOP side, yet you keep asking these questions.  Just go to the print version of this thread (so you can see everything on one page):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=printpage;topic=226605.0

and then search for whichever state you're interested in, and you'll find your answer for whichever state you care about.

I do apologize.  Thank you for this page.  I bookmarked it into my favorites.