The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

I just found this spreadsheet while trying to update my own.  Amazing work.  You found quite a few that I could not.  May I return the favor by trying to fill in a few of your blanks as well?

--snip--

Thanks for the tips! Added a bunch of them to the spreadsheet.

[/]

So is Trump actually losing delegates compared to how many we already have projected for him, or is Cruz just picking up more and more that were previously uncommitted?

[Erc]

So is Trump actually losing delegates compared to how many we already have projected for him, or is Cruz just picking up more and more that were previously uncommitted?

What's mainly happening is that Cruz is winning the personal loyalty of delegates who are already legally bound (to him or someone else).  This doesn't matter for the first ballot, but does for the second, when most delegates are released from their binding commitments based on the primary.

There are a few delegates at stake in this process that are actually unbound on the first ballot (Rubio's delegates in Oklahoma, for example); Cruz is winning most of these, but Trump actually did manage to pick one up on Saturday.

Calendar for Unbound Delegate Selection:

April 23: MN-3 [2 delegates], MN-4 [2], MN-6 [1] Conventions.
April 26: Pennsylvania Primary [54].
April 30: MN-5 [2], MN-7 [1], MN-8 [1] Conventions.
May 7: MN-1 [1], MN-2 [1] Conventions.
May 14: Oklahoma State Convention [10].
May 21: Minnesota State Convention [6], Vermont State Convention [8].

I will be a delegate at the MN-5 convention, so I'll have some first-hand reporting from there in a couple weeks.

[Classic Conservative]

Also the Massachusetts Congressional District Caucuses are on April 30th for the GOP.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Cruz is picking up Trump delegates bound to him on the first ballot. I'm not sure how many total he has so far, but he's getting to the point where it's possible if Cruz fights it out to the convention and does well, that he could win on the second ballot.

He's also picking up a few here and there on the first ballot, mostly Rubio's.

Once Cruz picks up 200+ of Trump's second ballots then the game becomes much more interesting.

[Erc]

The Canegata-Yob dispute turned violent today, with one of the non-Yob delegates that Canegata threw out with the bathwater being apparently assaulted by Canegata himself.

According to the VI GOP Vice chair, Gwendolyn Brady was “slammed against the wall and thrown to the floor because she objected to the Gestapo-like tactics of the V.I. Chairman John Canegata.”  Canegata, of course, claims a different sequence of events, but doesn't deny that there was a "scuffle."

Oh, and this happened on a gun range, with Canegata reportedly walking around carrying a firearm and using an ammunition cartridge as a gavel.

[Ebsy]

The Canegata-Yob dispute turned violent today, with one of the non-Yob delegates that Canegata threw out with the bathwater being apparently assaulted by Canegata himself.

According to the VI GOP Vice chair, Gwendolyn Brady was “slammed against the wall and thrown to the floor because she objected to the Gestapo-like tactics of the V.I. Chairman John Canegata.”  Canegata, of course, claims a different sequence of events, but doesn't deny that there was a "scuffle."

Oh, and this happened on a gun range, with Canegata reportedly walking around carrying a firearm and using an ammunition cartridge as a gavel.

Game Change: 2016 better have a section dedicated to the Yobs.

[Joe Republic]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/18/and-indiana-winner-president-john-kasich/83188214/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link

The Kasich campaign is claiming victory in Indiana's delegate selection process, saying that a majority of the 57 delegates' personal preferences favor him.  Regardless of how Indiana votes in two weeks, if true this could mess things up even further in a second convention ballot.

[yankeesfan]

http://www.abqjournal.com/759486/news/gop-extends-delegates-deadline.html

SANTA FE – The Republican Party of New Mexico is keeping the door open for national delegate applicants amid a push by the Donald Trump campaign to mobilize supporters.

State party spokesman Tucker Keene announced Monday that consideration will be given for two additional weeks to applicants who missed the April 15 deadline to vie for a delegate seat at the GOP national convention this summer in Cleveland.

---

“This is truly Trump,” said Rep. Rod Montoya, R-Farmington, who has applied to be a delegate to the national convention. “Rather than learning how the process works, he cries and complains to get the process changed because he doesn’t like it.”

[Erc]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

[jimrtex]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Cruz is picking up Trump delegates bound to him on the first ballot. I'm not sure how many total he has so far, but he's getting to the point where it's possible if Cruz fights it out to the convention and does well, that he could win on the second ballot.

He's also picking up a few here and there on the first ballot, mostly Rubio's.

Once Cruz picks up 200+ of Trump's second ballots then the game becomes much more interesting.

In Texas, nobody answers the phone at Trump HQ, and the state organizer hasn't been heard from.

[Torie]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

You think the NY result, will push up Trump's numbers elsewhere? I tend to doubt that myself. NY is NY.

[Slander and/or Libel]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

You think the NY result, will push up Trump's numbers elsewhere? I tend to doubt that myself. NY is NY.

Where did he say that? It looks like he's looking at other states through the lens of what happened in New York, not saying the result of New York will affect what happens somewhere else.

[Torie]

New York Results

Trump wins the delegate count 90-5.  This is obviously a very good night for him, and ahead of my projections by 6 delegates.  If the result is indicative of what can happen next week, and Trump can win Connecticut with more than 50% of the vote, the path to a first ballot victory is looking a lot easier; a win in Indiana would essentially seal the deal.

On the Democratic side, Hillary comes out with a +31 net gain in delegates.  Sanders' already small path to a victory in pledged delegates gets even slimmer.  He now needs to essentially sweep the remaining 6-delegate districts by large margins (58.3% of the two-way vote, to win them 4-2).  This, to put it mildly, seems impossible, barring the usual death/indictment caveats.

You think the NY result, will push up Trump's numbers elsewhere? I tend to doubt that myself. NY is NY.

Where did he say that? It looks like he's looking at other states through the lens of what happened in New York, not saying the result of New York will affect what happens somewhere else.

He didn't. I was posing a question. Some are making the assertion out there on the Fruited Plain.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Ah, gotcha. That makes a little more sense. I don't think the results in NY will necessarily predispose voters anywhere else to do one thing or another, but I think they might point toward results being a little better for Trump than had been predicted in the foregoing weeks.

[Erc]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

[The Other Castro]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

I wouldn't lose hope for Kasich in Fairfield just yet. Based on all the Republicans I know in the county, they seem exactly like Kasich-type supporters. Then again, that's probably influenced more for me by places like Greenwich than Bridgeport.

[Erc]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

I wouldn't lose hope for Kasich in Fairfield just yet. Based on all the Republicans I know in the county, they seem exactly like Kasich-type supporters. Then again, that's probably influenced more for me by places like Greenwich than Bridgeport.

Trump still got a majority in Pelham Manor, which would seem like prime Kasich territory.  Fairfield is presumably somewhat richer and WASPier, but probably not enough to make a difference unless one attributes Trump's overperformance to a home state effect.

[Torie]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

Here is a breakdown by CD in Westchester. It's pretty uniform. Notice the Carson thing, which was what pushed up Trump from 50% in Westchester to 55%, since the Carson votes were voided. Also notice how pathetically low the Pub turnout was.

[Erc]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

Here is a breakdown by CD in Westchester. It's pretty uniform. Notice the Carson thing, which was what pushed up Trump from 50% in Westchester to 55%, since the Carson votes were voided. Also notice how pathetically low the Pub turnout was.

Why on earth was the Carson vote so high?  Pure protest votes?  Real shame his votes got voided, would have cost Trump a few delegates.

[bandg]

I have to think the Carson results in Westchester are a reporting error. He only got 0.7% in neighboring Rockland, so getting 9% in Westchester just doesn't make any sense. Also, Westchester has been stuck at 84% reporting for a while now, so they seem to be having some sort of problem there.

[Ronnie]

Will Ben Carson's votes likewise be voided in CT?

[Erc]

Apparently not (though I was wrong about New York).  "Carson suspended his campaign but didn't formally notify [CT SoS] Merrill's office of his withdrawal," according to the AP.

Bush, Rubio, etc. will not be on the ballot.

[Torie]

The Carson tally in Westchester is clearly a glitch. I called the BOE and just got babble. Folks called in the wrong numbers i was told. Really, all across the county? No, there is a machine glitch or something. I called the press in Westchester. They are on it. I told the BOE to be very worried. They are facing a huge cf. They moved me up the ladder when I said my next step was the press. But still the same babble, but they said they would look into it.

And like magic, the Carson vote drops to the appropriate number. The website or somebody moved some of the Trump voters (too bad it was him that was cheated of votes) to Carson. That has been corrected. Maybe my phone call made a difference, of the call be the press after I talked to the press did.

[Ronnie]

Torie, Rachel Maddow just reported the incident on her show!  In a small way, you may have impacted today's prime time news cycle.