The Delegate Fight: 2016
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SkyeZee
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« Reply #700 on: April 24, 2016, 10:39:26 AM »
« edited: April 24, 2016, 11:27:46 AM by SkyeZee »

The 3 MN districts from 4/23 Cruz sweep (twitter.com/HarryNiska/status/724009203455635456)

CD3 MN David Asp, Alex Plechash, Cindy Pugh (I was delegate here Asp & Pugh were on the Cruz slate, but Plechash is a Cruz supporter)
(twitter.com/JenDeJournett/status/724004273911111680?lang=en)

CD4 MN James Carson, Laura Dean, Ben Golnik (twitter.com/repmattdean/status/723938764083453952)

CD6 Jennifer Niska, Andy Aplikowski, Bobby Benson (twitter.com/HarryNiska/status/723975223603765252)
(twitter.com/talkette/status/723975291790589953)


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The Other Castro
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« Reply #701 on: April 24, 2016, 02:30:43 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2016, 02:34:18 PM by Castro »

Saturday's delegates:
-Cruz loyalists won 36/37 available spots in Utah, with 1 delegate a wild card anti-Trump with unknown support. The other 3 spots are the RNC members we already knew about.
-Apparently all campaigns were shut out of getting loyalists selected in Kentucky (among the KY delegates are Matt Bevin, Rand Paul, and Mitch McConnell. Bevin supports Cruz, Paul is anti-Trump).
-The three delegates from SC-6 went 1 for Cruz, 1 for Kasich, and 1 Uncommitted.
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Erc
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« Reply #702 on: April 24, 2016, 09:14:25 PM »

Thanks again for the help guys.  Travelling this weekend, so haven't been able to follow the weekend's conventions as closely as I would have otherwise.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #703 on: April 25, 2016, 11:50:12 PM »

Is there going to be a good way to see how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates go tomorrow night?
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dax00
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« Reply #704 on: April 25, 2016, 11:57:10 PM »

Is there going to be a good way to see how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates go tomorrow night?
I believe that PA won't release CD data until a good time after the primary - county results first - so we couldn't even infer for whom the delegate candidates who have stated they'd vote for their district winner would vote.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #705 on: April 26, 2016, 12:32:33 AM »

Is there going to be a good way to see how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates go tomorrow night?
I believe that PA won't release CD data until a good time after the primary - county results first - so we couldn't even infer for whom the delegate candidates who have stated they'd vote for their district winner would vote.

But, what about the publicly declared ones?  And, someone should do research to see if any #NeverTrump people are included in the will vote for district winner choices.
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« Reply #706 on: April 26, 2016, 05:36:43 AM »

I found this online about the PA Unbound Delegates
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/htmlview?pli=1
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Gass3268
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« Reply #707 on: April 26, 2016, 07:56:05 AM »


Good work!
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SkyeZee
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« Reply #708 on: April 26, 2016, 10:48:51 AM »

The list of all of the Kentucky delegates. They don't separate which are At-Large vs CD delegates.

(cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/25/kentucky-gop-releases-list-delegates/83505788/)
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Erc
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« Reply #709 on: April 26, 2016, 02:13:30 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2016, 03:06:21 PM by Erc »

Pennsylvania's Loophole Delegates: A Viewer's Guide

In Pennsylvania, 17 delegates will go to the statewide winner (presumably Trump), while the other 54 are directly elected on the ballot.  Delegate candidates' presidential preference is not listed on the ballot, and any delegates elected will be completely unbound on the first and any subsequent ballots.

Of course, some have expressed their preference to the media, or are being pushed by a presidential campaign, or claim they are voting for the winner of their district.  In preparation for tonight's results, here's a quick and abridged rundown of the delegate candidates.  I'm not listing all 162 candidates, just the top three by their order on the ballot, plus any on Trump/Cruz/Kasich slates, plus any particularly notable other delegates.

Note that any elected office these folks hold is not listed on the ballot, either.

1st District
[1] Christopher M Vogler - Uncommitted but will consider District Winner
[2] Seth Kauffer - strongly considering District Winner / Trump
[3] Dave Hackett - District Winner

These three are running unopposed, the only question is who wins the district.

2nd District
[1] Calvin Tucker - Uncommitted, considering electability & "last man standing"
[2] Aaron Cohen - Uncommitted
[3] Elizabeth Havey - District Winner
[4] Aldridk Gessa - Cruz, on Cruz slate

These are the only candidates.

3rd District
[1] Robert J Yates - Uncommitted, "strongly impressed by Kasich", on Kasich PAC and Cruz slates
[2] Michele Mustello - Uncommitted, on Kasich slate
[3] Lynne Ryan - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Brian Ellis - District Winner
[7] State Rep. Daryl Metcalfe - Uncommitted, "I will support the candidate that I believe will be the most consistent with and represent the conservative values that I have a record of supporting and fighting for."
[8] Fmr. US Rep. Phil English - on Kasich PAC slate
[9] Jim Keffalas - Trump, on Trump slate
[11] Dan Vete - Trump, on Trump slate

4th District
[1] State Rep. Greg Rothman - District Winner
[2] Charlie Gerow - District Winner - "In a contested convention, will seek the candidate who can best defeat Hillary Clinton."
[3] Marilyn S Gillispie - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Stan Saylor - Uncommitted, variously Rubio/District Winner/Leans Cruz/York County Winner
[10] Matthew Jansen - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Marc A Scaringi - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Joe Sacco - Trump, on Trump slate

5th District
[1] Joyce C Haas - District Winner
[2] Scott Schreffler - District Winner
[3] Rick Chura - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Lyle Stewart - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] James Klein - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Ash Khare - District Winner, on Trump slate
[8] Barry Kroeker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] C Arnold McClure - Trump, on Trump slate

6th District
[1] Mary Elizabeth Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Larry E Stohler - Statewide Winner
[3] Doug Hager - District Winner
[4] US Rep. Ryan Costello - District Winner
[5] Wayne Buckwalter - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Robert Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Vicki Lightcap - Trump, on Trump slate

7th District
[1] Michael Puppio - District Winner
[2] Ralph E Wike III - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Robert J Willert - District Winner
[5] Jan C Ting - Trump, on Trump slate

8th District
[1] Barry Casper - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Deborah Evangelou - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[3] Jim Worthington - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Gene DiGirolamo - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[5] Sean Shute - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] State Rep. Marguerite Quinn - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[7] Robert G Loughery - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate

These are the only candidates.

9th District
[1] Lois Kaneshiki - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] US Rep. Bill Shuster - Uncommitted
[3] Debbie Taylor - leaning Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Judy Ward - District Winner
[5] Cody Raymond Knotts - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] David Show - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Joseph Lamantia - Trump, on Trump slate

10th District
[1] Ryan Belz - Trump
[2] Nancy Schrader - District Winner, unless it's Trump; Lean Kasich.
[3] Krystle Bristol - District Winner
[6] Carol D Sides - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Charles Brewer - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] Mark F Holt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] State Rep. Tina Pickett - District Winner, on Trump slate
[12] State Sen. Mario Scavello - District Winner, on Trump slate

Cruz is also encouraging a write-in campaign for Elizabeth Greenaway, a Cruz supporter in the 10th District.

11th District
[1] Dan Mosel - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Philip G Bear - Cruz
[3] Richard P Adams - Cruz
[4] Rick Morelli - Trump, on Trump slate
[5] Lowman Henry - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Susan C "Sue" Helm - District Winner
[8] David McElwee - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Fmr. US Rep. Don Sherwood - Uncommitted, anti-Trump
[11] Carol H Drewniak - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[14] Andrew Shecktor - Trump, on Trump slate

12th District
[1] Bruce Keeler - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Dave Majernik - District Winner
[3] Jill Cooper - District Winner
[5] Jeff Steigerwalt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] James Vasilko - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Mike McMullen - District Winner, supports Trump (is not Admiral Mike Mullen)
[11] Joseph Matthew Sernell - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Monica Morrill - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Larry Borland - Cruz, on Cruz slate

13th District
[1] Alan Apt - District Winner
[2] Shannon Oscar - District Winner, on Kasich PAC slate
[3] Gilbert Cox - District Winner, on Trump slate
[5] Lauren E Casper - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] Tom Ellis - District Winner, on Trump slate

14th District
[1] Mary Ann Meloy - Uncommitted
[2] Cameron S Linton - Kasich
[3] Mike Devanney - Uncommitted

These three are running unopposed.

15th District
[1] Scott Uehlinger - District Winner, on Trump slate
[2] Robert E Smith Jr - Cruz
[3] John K Reber Sr - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] Mark S Hoffman - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[5] Patrick Kerwin - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Rep. Ryan E Mackenzie - District Winner
[8] Dean N Browning - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] Christian Y Leinbach - Cruz, on Cruz slate

16th District
[1] David M Dumeyer - District Winner
[2] Gordon Denlinger - Uncommitted
[3] Douglas W Brubaker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Mark Lemon - Trump, on Trump slate

17th District
[1] Robert E Ames - District Winner
[2] T Lynnette Villano - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Ron Boltz - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[7] Gloria Lee Snover - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[9] Carolyn L Bonkowski - Trump, on Trump slate

Cruz is encouraging a write-in campaign for Cruz supporter Joel Underwood.

18th District
[1] Justin DePlato - Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Scott E Avolio - District Winner
[3] Al Quaye - Cruz
[6] John Petrarca - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] State Rep. Rick Saccone - District Winner
[9] Sue Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] Jim Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[11] Thomas J Uram - Trump, on Trump slate
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Erc
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« Reply #710 on: April 26, 2016, 05:44:45 PM »

Trump seems to have done a better job organizing these delegates than I expected given his campaign's history.

Yeah, he's definitely looking better on this list than he did a month ago.

It's aided by the fact that Trump expects to win the state and most CDs, so District Winner and Statewide Winner delegates are mostly Trump delegates as well.

In fact, this has caused some consternation where long-committed but little-known Trump delegates have been passed over in favor of better-known folks.  Whether this causes some vote-splitting (or whether the latter category changes their minds) is yet to be determined.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #711 on: April 26, 2016, 09:07:22 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2016, 10:23:14 PM by Erc »

Leaders so far (71.61% reporting, 11:15 PM EST)

1st District
[1] Christopher M Vogler - Uncommitted but will consider District Winner
[2] Seth Kauffer - Uncommitted, strongly considering District Winner / Trump
[3] Dave Hackett - District Winner

These three are running unopposed, the only question is who wins the district.

2nd District
[1] Calvin Tucker - Uncommitted, considering electability & "last man standing"
[2] Aaron Cohen - Uncommitted
[3] Elizabeth Havey - District Winner

[4] Aldridk Gessa - Cruz, on Cruz slate

These are the only candidates.

3rd District
[1] Robert J Yates - Uncommitted, "strongly impressed by Kasich", on Kasich PAC and Cruz slates
[2] Michele Mustello - Uncommitted, on Kasich slate
[3] Lynne Ryan - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Brian Ellis - District Winner
[7] State Rep. Daryl Metcalfe - Uncommitted, "I will support the candidate that I believe will be the most consistent with and represent the conservative values that I have a record of supporting and fighting for."
[8] Fmr. US Rep. Phil English - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[9] Jim Keffalas - Trump, on Trump slate
[11] Dan Vete - Trump, on Trump slate

4th District
[1] State Rep. Greg Rothman - District Winner
[2] Charlie Gerow - District Winner - "In a contested convention, will seek the candidate who can best defeat Hillary Clinton."
[3] Marilyn S Gillispie - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Stan Saylor - Uncommitted, variously Rubio/District Winner/Leans Cruz/York County Winner
[10] Matthew Jansen - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Marc A Scaringi - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Joe Sacco - Trump, on Trump slate

5th District
[1] Joyce C Haas - District Winner
[2] Scott Schreffler - District Winner
[3] Rick Chura - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[4] Lyle Stewart - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] James Klein - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Ash Khare - District Winner, on Trump slate
[8] Barry Kroeker - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] C Arnold McClure - Trump, on Trump slate

6th District
[1] Mary Elizabeth Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Larry E Stohler - Statewide Winner
[3] Doug Hager - District Winner
[4] US Rep. Ryan Costello - District Winner
[5] Wayne Buckwalter - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Robert Wert - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Vicki Lightcap - Trump, on Trump slate

7th District
[1] Michael Puppio - District Winner
[2] Ralph E Wike III - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Robert J Willert - District Winner
[4] Joan Miller - District Winner
[5] Jan C Ting - Trump, on Trump slate

8th District
[1] Barry Casper - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Deborah Evangelou - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[3] Jim Worthington - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Gene DiGirolamo - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[5] Sean Shute - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] State Rep. Marguerite Quinn - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate
[7] Robert G Loughery - Uncommitted, on Kasich PAC slate

These are the only candidates.

9th District
[1] Lois Kaneshiki - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] US Rep. Bill Shuster - Uncommitted
[3] Debbie Taylor - leaning Trump, on Trump slate
[4] State Rep. Judy Ward - District Winner
[5] Cody Raymond Knotts - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] David Show - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[8] Joseph Lamantia - Trump, on Trump slate

10th District
[1] Ryan Belz - Trump
[2] Nancy Schrader - District Winner, unless it's Trump; Lean Kasich.
[3] Krystle Bristol - District Winner
[6] Carol D Sides - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] Charles Brewer - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] Mark F Holt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] State Rep. Tina Pickett - District Winner, on Trump slate
[12] State Sen. Mario Scavello - District Winner, on Trump slate

Cruz is also encouraging a write-in campaign for Elizabeth Greenaway, a Cruz supporter in the 10th District.

11th District
[1] Dan Mosel - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Philip G Bear - Cruz
[3] Richard P Adams - Cruz
[4] Rick Morelli - Trump, on Trump slate
[5] Lowman Henry - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[6] State Rep. Susan C "Sue" Helm - District Winner
[8] David McElwee - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Fmr. US Rep. Don Sherwood - Uncommitted, anti-Trump
[11] Carol H Drewniak - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[14] Andrew Shecktor - Trump, on Trump slate

12th District
[1] Bruce Keeler - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[2] Dave Majernik - District Winner
[3] Jill Cooper - District Winner
[5] Jeff Steigerwalt - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] James Vasilko - Trump, on Trump slate
[10] Mike McMullen - District Winner, supports Trump (is not Admiral Mike Mullen)
[11] Joseph Matthew Sernell - Trump, on Trump slate
[14] Monica Morrill - Trump, on Trump slate
[15] Larry Borland - Cruz, on Cruz slate

13th District
[1] Alan Apt - District Winner
[2] Shannon Oscar - District Winner, on Kasich PAC slate
[3] Gilbert Cox - District Winner, on Trump slate
[5] Lauren E Casper - District Winner, on Trump slate
[6] Tom Ellis - District Winner, on Trump slate

14th District
[1] Mary Ann Meloy - Uncommitted
[2] Cameron S Linton - Kasich
[3] Mike Devanney - Uncommitted

These three are running unopposed.

15th District
[1] Scott Uehlinger - District Winner, on Trump slate
[2] Robert E Smith Jr - Cruz
[3] John K Reber Sr - Trump, on Trump slate
[4] Mark S Hoffman - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[5] Patrick Kerwin - Trump, on Trump slate
[6] Rep. Ryan E Mackenzie - District Winner
[8] Dean N Browning - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[9] William L Heydt - District Winner
[10] Christian Y Leinbach - Cruz, on Cruz slate

16th District
[1] David M Dumeyer - District Winner
[2] Gordon Denlinger - Uncommitted
[3] Douglas W Brubaker - Cruz, on Cruz slate

[4] Mark Lemon - Trump, on Trump slate

17th District
[1] Robert E Ames - District Winner
[2] T Lynnette Villano - Trump, on Trump slate
[3] Ron Boltz - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[7] Gloria Lee Snover - District Winner, supports Trump, on Trump slate
[9] Carolyn L Bonkowski - Trump, on Trump slate

Cruz is encouraging a write-in campaign for Cruz supporter Joel Underwood.

18th District
[1] Justin DePlato - Trump, on Trump slate
[2] Scott E Avolio - District Winner
[3] Al Quaye - Cruz
[6] John Petrarca - Trump, on Trump slate
[7] State Rep. Rick Saccone - District Winner
[9] Sue Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[10] Jim Means - Cruz, on Cruz slate
[11] Thomas J Uram - Trump, on Trump slate

Totals:
Trump: 21
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 11
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1
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Erc
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« Reply #712 on: April 26, 2016, 09:26:09 PM »

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.
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« Reply #713 on: April 26, 2016, 09:28:12 PM »

The bottom line is that a loss in Indiana would be the end for anti-Trump forces
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #714 on: April 26, 2016, 09:53:03 PM »

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.

So if this holds up....of the ~180 delegates who will be unbound on the first ballot, do you have a revised estimate as to how many would likely vote for Trump on the first ballot?
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Erc
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« Reply #715 on: April 26, 2016, 09:54:12 PM »

The bottom line is that a loss in Indiana would be the end for anti-Trump forces

I said a while back that Trump needed to do 2 of 4 things in order to win the nomination.  With a northeast sweep in the bag, and a stellar performance in PA, it's now down to 1 of 3 things:

1) Win Indiana
2) Win Montana
3) Win California by a large margin (115+ delegates)

Even if he fails to do all of these, he can still win on the first ballot by convincing enough unpledged delegates to vote for him.  My current projections (in which Trump fails to do all of the above) have Trump at 1225; the additional 12 delegates won't be difficult.

Honestly, Cruz now needs to win both Indiana and California (or lose the latter in a squeaker) in order to have a shot at stopping Trump.
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Erc
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« Reply #716 on: April 26, 2016, 10:11:05 PM »

The bottom line is that a loss in Indiana would be the end for anti-Trump forces

I said a while back that Trump needed to do 2 of 4 things in order to win the nomination.  With a northeast sweep in the bag, and a stellar performance in PA, it's now down to 1 of 3 things:

1) Win Indiana
2) Win Montana
3) Win California by a large margin (115+ delegates)

Even if he fails to do all of these, he can still win on the first ballot by convincing enough unpledged delegates to vote for him.  My current projections (in which Trump fails to do all of the above) have Trump at 1225; the additional 12 delegates won't be difficult.

Honestly, Cruz now needs to win both Indiana and California (or lose the latter in a squeaker) in order to have a shot at stopping Trump.

Given how demographically-driven the race has been so far, I wouldn't assume that tonight means anything for Indiana or Montana (although I expect Trump has overlooked ancestral labor Dem strength there).  But given what we have seen in a bunch of big, diverse blue states with closed primaries, the odds of Trump cracking 50% in CA and basically sweeping the delegates there have gone way up.

Are you including the publicly Trumpist PA district delegates in that 1225, or are you excluding them?

Yes, the 1225 count includes unbound delegates who have committed to Trump (or the District Winner everywhere but PA-7).  Most of these are in PA, though a few are not.
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« Reply #717 on: April 26, 2016, 10:12:18 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2016, 10:14:46 PM by Erc »

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.

So if this holds up....of the ~180 delegates who will be unbound on the first ballot, do you have a revised estimate as to how many would likely vote for Trump on the first ballot?


Whatever he gets in PA, plus 4.  (So, around 39 total.)

Of the remainder, some could be convinced (some of the 12 remaining PA uncommitted, probably a couple in ND and LA and some insular folks); any more than around 20 gets difficult unless he's already winning the nomination.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #718 on: April 26, 2016, 10:20:21 PM »

PA TL;DR:

Trump: 20
District Winner: 18
Uncommitted: 12
Cruz: 3
Kasich: 1

Of those "District Winners," Trump will obviously win most of them; PA-7 seems the one he's most likely to lose at the moment.

So if this holds up....of the ~180 delegates who will be unbound on the first ballot, do you have a revised estimate as to how many would likely vote for Trump on the first ballot?


Whatever he gets in PA, plus 4.  (So, around 39 total.)

Of the remainder, some could be convinced (some of the 12 remaining PA uncommitted, probably a couple in ND and LA and some insular folks); any more than around 20 gets difficult unless he's already winning the nomination.

Last week you said:

Absolute maximum is probably around 75, most of them from PA.

So that's what you'd still be guessing today?  If the unbound delegates hold the balance of power, then probably only ~40-50 will vote for Trump, with the possibility of it going up to ~75 in the best case for Trump?
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dax00
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« Reply #719 on: April 26, 2016, 11:13:22 PM »

Just had a very interesting thought: Is it within the power of the CA Republican Party to open up their primary and flood the zone with Hispanic Dems to stop Trump?
On that note, is it within the power of the CA Democratic Party to make it a winner-take-all open caucus?
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« Reply #720 on: April 26, 2016, 11:27:18 PM »

Just had a very interesting thought: Is it within the power of the CA Republican Party to open up their primary and flood the zone with Hispanic Dems to stop Trump?

Too late for 2016. I'm assuming in 2020 we'll get to see lots more proportionality. Possibly lots more cauci, but perhaps they won't go for that -- in the long run the threat to the Republican establishment comes from socons and libertarians, not Trump types.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #721 on: April 27, 2016, 01:56:21 AM »

Just had a very interesting thought: Is it within the power of the CA Republican Party to open up their primary and flood the zone with Hispanic Dems to stop Trump?

Too late for 2016. I'm assuming in 2020 we'll get to see lots more proportionality. Possibly lots more cauci, but perhaps they won't go for that -- in the long run the threat to the Republican establishment comes from socons and libertarians, not Trump types.

And if there is one group that does absolutely terrible in caucuses versus primaries, it is the ones that dominate the activist base. Roll Eyes

If the GOP is smart they will go for more primaries. Trying to suppress the inevitable shift driven by demographics within the GOP base will only lead to heads on pikes. They need to run realists who accept the modern reality, quit trying to pretend it is 1980 all over again and map a path that accrues both base support and competitiveness in the general. There is no other way this works.
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Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #722 on: April 27, 2016, 03:43:39 AM »

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And Trump's the Candidate that will get there? I don't see it. 11 percent support among Hispanics pretty much dooms Trump in the General.

If he only polls 80 percent of the Romney whites, he's blown away in the election.
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Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #723 on: April 27, 2016, 03:49:31 AM »

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Changing none of the sliders, even with 30 percent black support, the Firewall holds. Right now Republicans are getting 7 percent. Republicans pick up Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

If he drops to 25 percent of Hispanics (from the 29 percent that Romney got), that doesn't change.

If he gets 30 percent of blacks, 25 percent of Hispanics and 80 percent of Romney's whites (with 20 percent not showing), he loses Florida.
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Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #724 on: April 27, 2016, 03:53:18 AM »

The reason why black voters are pretty much irrelevant to the Republican party - even with 0 percent black voters, all you need for a republican win is an increase in the turnout of whites without a degree, to 71 percent, and a slight increase in the percentage of whites with a degree voting Republican to 61 percent.

That... actually breaks the freiwall.

Blacks have made themselves demographically irrelevant in American elections.
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