The Delegate Fight: 2016

[The Other Castro]

This should definitely be stickied btw.

[The Other Castro]

South Carolina Results

Clinton on track to win with at least a 40-13 result in delegates here.  One main uncertainty here is CD 6, where Sanders is flirting with the viability threshold, allowing Clinton to pick up up to two more delegates.

Sanders' future memoir title: "Flirting with Viability"

[The Other Castro]

At long last, the mystery of the final Iowa delegate will be settled.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, to me this whole caucus process seems to serve only as a confrontation arena to increase negative rhetoric and turn people with very similar political ideologies against one another. In the words of the immortal John Oliver, "How is this still a thing?"

[The Other Castro]

In the words of the immortal John Oliver, "How is this still a thing?"

How did he manage to become immortal?

My bad, I meant the immortal words of John Oliver. It's been a long day.

[The Other Castro]

I can't speak for all members of Fairfield County (CT-4), but we're definitely the type that are receptive to Kasich.

[The Other Castro]

I know you probably haven't thought this far ahead, yet, but is New York WTA or how are they divided up?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4940246#msg4940246

[The Other Castro]

Uncommentum!

[The Other Castro]

Erc, I was wondering about when Clinton might claim a total delegate majority if she included her Superdelegates, and I think your current numbers imply that that would be very difficult to achieve before California. Is that correct?

[The Other Castro]

This picture creeping is going to get really fun in places like Pennsylvania.

[The Other Castro]

Erc, which faction are you personally siding with fairness-wise? It feels like Yob is more correct, but as usual the Yobs of the world are being yobbed.

[The Other Castro]

Thinking ahead to multiple convention ballots, the governors of states and state party chairmen could have decent amounts of sway in their states' delegate slates. Here's who Governors have endorsed that may go against Trump:

Cruz:
Walker (WI)
Herbert (UT)
Haley (SC)
Bryant (MS)
Abbott (TX)

Rubio:
Martinez (NM)
Haslam (TN)
Hutchinson (AR)
Brownback (KS)

Kasich:
Otter (ID)
Bentley (AL)

[The Other Castro]

I guessed at the 3 delegate winners from each district on that Google Spreadsheet, and got these results for Pennsylvania (I made some assumptions about some delegates as well):

1 - Trump, Uncommitted, District Winner (Trump)
2 - Cruz, Uncommitted, District Winner (Trump)
3 - Trump, Uncommitted, District Winner (Trump)
4 - Cruz, District Winner (Kasich), District Winner (Kasich)
5 - District Winner (Trump), District Winner (Trump), District Winner (Trump)
6 - Cruz, District Winner (Kasich), District Winner (Kasich)
7 - District Winner (Kasich), District Winner (Kasich), Trump
8 - Uncommitted, Uncommitted, District Winner (Kasich)
9 - Cruz, Trump, District Winner (Kasich)
10 - Cruz, Trump, District Winner (Trump)
11 - Cruz, Cruz, Trump
12 - Trump, District Winner (Trump), District Winner (Trump)
13 - District Winner (Kasich), District Winner (Kasich), District Winner (Kasich)
14 - Cruz, Kasich, Cruz
15 - Cruz, Trump, Uncommitted
16 - Trump, District Winner (Kasich), District Winner (Kasich)
17 - Trump, Trump, Uncommitted
18 - District Winner (Trump), District Winner (Trump), Cruz

Trump: 11, Cruz: 11, Kasich: 1, Uncommitted: 7, District Winner: 24
With Predicted District Winners: Trump: 22, Kasich: 14, Cruz: 11, Uncommitted: 7
Total PA delegates: Trump: 39, Kasich: 14, Cruz: 11, Uncommitted: 7

I'm roughly predicting the CDs to break down like this:
Trump CDs: 10, 11, 17, 3, 5, 2, 1, 12, 18, 9
Kasich CDs: 4, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16

[The Other Castro]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-washington-state-delegates-late-221725

Trump is getting his act together. But too late for Washington.  His campaign sent an email to supporters trying to get them to sign up to be delegates, but it was past the deadline already....

* * *

Donald Trump’s team is encouraging its supporters in Washington state to sign up to be a potential Trump delegate. The only problem: The campaign's local crew sent its email on Friday — two days after the filing deadline to appear on the printed ballot in Saturday's conventions and caucuses.

The email, headlined "invitation," encouraged supporters to submit their Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form. But the very next sentence says the filing deadline was Wednesday.

“You can still be elected as a Trump Delegate at your GOP County Convention this Saturday!” the April 8 email, which was obtained by POLITICO, says. “If you have submitted a Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form to your GOP County Chairman by the assigned deadline of 10:00am on April 6th."

It's like watching a T-Rex trying to do pull-ups.

[The Other Castro]

Can't keep a good Yob down.

[The Other Castro]

Honestly, this whole Yob story makes for a great subplot in case "Game Change 3: All In" is a very long book.

[The Other Castro]

This story talks about Cruz's organizational advantage in California, and wonders if Trump is actually going to have a full delegate slate there (or for that matter, Kasich):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/unconventional-no-1-the-gops-veep-problem-183429119.html

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That's pretty big news if true. If Cruz's campaign, with its top notch delegate operation, needed 5 months to fill every slate, I don't see how Trump's campaign can possibly do the same in 2 months (or if they do, they won't possibly be able to extensively vet every single person for loyalty). What happens if Trump wins a district that he doesn't have delegates in?

[The Other Castro]

At this point, is it possible that part of the RNC stretches into the next week and overlaps with the DNC?

[The Other Castro]

Unknown Delegates

In my continuing effort to find out the identities of all the delegates, some are beginning to slip through the cracks.  If anyone has any leads on the delegates chosen in the following jurisdictions, it'd be much appreciated:

Oklahoma's 4th CD (3 delegates)
Florida: CDs 5-10, 15-18, 20-22 (39 delegates)
North Carolina: CDs 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,13 (24 delegates)
Indiana: All CDs 1-9 (27 delegates).

Potentially, some of Idaho's delegates have been selected by the campaigns as well, though I'm unsure about this.

I'm keeping a running list of these going in the "Unknown Delegates" tab on my spreadsheet; this list may grow or shrink as time goes on.

Merry Christmas Erc.
Names of all 57 Indiana Delegates: http://fox59.com/2016/04/14/here-are-indianas-57-delegates-why-their-vote-for-president-matters-more-than-yours/

[The Other Castro]

Unknown Delegates

In my continuing effort to find out the identities of all the delegates, some are beginning to slip through the cracks.  If anyone has any leads on the delegates chosen in the following jurisdictions, it'd be much appreciated:

Oklahoma's 4th CD (3 delegates)
Florida: CDs 5-10, 15-18, 20-22 (39 delegates)
North Carolina: CDs 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,13 (24 delegates)
Indiana: All CDs 1-9 (27 delegates).

Potentially, some of Idaho's delegates have been selected by the campaigns as well, though I'm unsure about this.

I'm keeping a running list of these going in the "Unknown Delegates" tab on my spreadsheet; this list may grow or shrink as time goes on.

Merry Christmas Erc.
Names of all 57 Indiana Delegates: http://fox59.com/2016/04/14/here-are-indianas-57-delegates-why-their-vote-for-president-matters-more-than-yours/

Awesome!  Guess that supposed embargo didn't last long (or the list was leaked).

It looks like the Indiana Republican Party changed its mind, but it didn't say why. Also, CNN says:

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[The Other Castro]

Basically: my earlier predictions had been bullish for Kasich in Fairfield.  The results out of Westchester suggest that may have been far too bullish, and we should take seriously the polls that show Trump at 50% in Connecticut.

I would love to see a town-by-town breakdown of the results in Westchester, though.

I was not trying to imply that the results last night meant anything for the race in Indiana; I was merely stating that if Trump has a good night next Tuesday (the largest factor in which is a sweep in Connecticut), he needs fewer delegates in the later contests to reach 1237.  If he were to win in Indiana (which I still view as unlikely), that would be enough, assuming he doesn't lose California.

I wouldn't lose hope for Kasich in Fairfield just yet. Based on all the Republicans I know in the county, they seem exactly like Kasich-type supporters. Then again, that's probably influenced more for me by places like Greenwich than Bridgeport.

[The Other Castro]

Erc are you running to be a national delegate at your district's convention?

[The Other Castro]

Also, I was looking through your spreadsheet for the current preferences of bound delegates to predict how many delegates Trump will lose on the 2nd ballot. Right now it looks like Trump has 541 delegates so far that become unbound after the 1st ballot, of which 49 go to Cruz, 1 goes to Kasich, 18 stay with Trump, and 473 are unknown. That's about a 72% pickup rate for Cruz, which bodes well for his chances on the 2nd ballot.

[The Other Castro]

Cruz won all 9 delegates from Minnesota CDs 3, 4, and 6. 5 of these were pickups from Rubio I believe.

[The Other Castro]

The more delegates Cruz steals, the more votes he loses.

Conventions are held to decide delegates, and Cruz's delegates received the most votes. How is that stealing?