The Delegate Fight: 2016

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also note that my superdelegate count is ahead of the AP's by 28 supers, which makes a difference here as to what the media would report on June 5.  Presumably it's still short of Clinton's private count, but as stated she has little reason to roll them out obnoxiously on June 5.

The real question is whether the media (and Clinton) will declare victory on June 7, or wait a week until DC.

There's always the possibility Sanders suspends his campaign after he gets his requisite 25% of delegates (which I believe should happen on April 26), but it seems unlikely.

What is significant about 25%, again?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Louisiana confirms Rubio has lost his delegates there, and it is too late for him to get them back.

Why doesn't every state keep delegates bound to a candidate, even after dropping out.  Re-allocating them can help someone to get to 1237 who doesn't deserve it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am not so sure that Rule 40 prevents a white knight candidate.  All it says is that a candidate needs to get majority support of eight state delegations.  If a white knight comes and gets the votes to win, he will get a majority from at least states (almost certainly).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does Wisconsin have a 50% WTA trigger?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I feel like a lot of the PA delegates might say right now that they will vote for the state's winner to get elected, but they wouldn't really do that.  Also, I think you're WAY too optimistic for Trump in California.  I think Kasich is falling more than you account for as well.  I just projected it on 538 and got 1122 for Trump.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When I have some time, I can do a little write up on the Tennessee delegates that I know.

I also have three good friends who very narrowly lost their races to be delegates, including one who was significantly ahead with 99% of the precincts in and went over a month thinking she had made it before finding out that she had been knocked out by the last few precincts.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ERC, I am running the numbers and I don't see trump getting below 1237 if he gets all 95 NY delegates, which is huge possibility. In fact, he could lose California and MD and still get 1237 if all 95 NY dels go to him.

I don't think he'll quite get all 95, but I would be shocked if he's under 85.  The couple thousand Republican voters in NY-15/NY-13/NY-07/NY-08 are likely to be devoutly religious Hispanic Catholics, black Evangelicals, and Orthodox Jews.  That's an opening for Cruz.

I feel like he will only get 65-75.  He should dominate upstate, but he will struggle in NYC and suburbs, I would think.  It will also be very close whether or not he gets all 14 statewide or just 7.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is there going to be a good way to see how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates go tomorrow night?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is there going to be a good way to see how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates go tomorrow night?

I believe that PA won't release CD data until a good time after the primary - county results first - so we couldn't even infer for whom the delegate candidates who have stated they'd vote for their district winner would vote.

But, what about the publicly declared ones?  And, someone should do research to see if any #NeverTrump people are included in the will vote for district winner choices.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The bottom line is that a loss in Indiana would be the end for anti-Trump forces