The Delegate Fight: 2016

[dax00]

SC-D Delegate Targets
Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

I wouldn't be so hasty to say "permanently". She's obviously expected to do better in the more conservative Southern states, many of which are at stake on Super Tuesday. After that, however, the clear edge goes to Sanders. They're basically tied in the national polls. It's a guessing game as to how discouraged Sanders supporters will be after Tuesday. Hopefully not much.

[dax00]

Arizona appears to have ended 31 Sanders to 44 Clinton, per the Green Papers, with over 99% of the vote accounted for. The last few votes slightly edged out for Clinton in CD(s) 2/3, so the delegate split should be accurate.

[dax00]

article on how Rubio is trying to keep delegates pledged to him, to keep them from being available to Trump
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/rubio-makes-unprecedented-bid-keep-delegates-contested-convention-n547646

That just made Trump's fight for 1237 a whole 3 delegates harder :/

[dax00]

Looking forward to May 10:

West Virginia is the only state that directly elects its At-Large delegates and doesn't bind them based on the statewide vote.

This means that each voter will have to vote for 25(!) delegate candidates (22 At-Large and 3 in each CD).  Unlike in Pennsylvania, the delegates do have the candidate they are supporting next to them on the ballot, but it's still an arduous process for any voter, as the WV SoS warns.

Additionally, of the 22 At-Large delegates, there are some geographic restrictions (7 much be from each CD, and no more than 2 can be from each county).

All in all, this opens up the fun possibility that motivation gaps and weird geographic restrictions could deprive Trump of some delegates here despite a presumed win in the state.

I have a hard time imagining any stalwart supporter of any candidate wouldn't find a way to get all their 25 votes in for delegates only supporting their preferred candidate.

[dax00]

Maybe a glimpse of good news for Trump on the delegate front? Most expected him to get shutout in ND.

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/716404293117616129

My projection, which had Trump at 1233, only anticipated 1 Trump delegate from North Dakota. Perhaps, I should increase that number.

[dax00]

Sanders won the Carson City County Convention in state delegates by 29-28.

[dax00]

Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority?  Around 60%?

If he were to get 6 in Wisconsin, that'll put him at 758 with 851 pledged delegates remaining. I project 151 unpledged delegates. 1237 - 758 = 479; 851 + 151 = 1002; 479 / 1002 = 47.8%

He's not going to win 50% of unpledged delegates.

Assuming 17 from PA, 5 from ND, 2 from GU, 3 from VI, 3 from AS, 3 from OK, 2 from NV and 1 from NH, his unpledged total would be 36. Assuming that, Trump would have to secure 52.06% of remaining pledged delegates.

[dax00]

What state can trump absolutely not afford to underperform in?

Besides the obvious (California nd New York), Delaware could be a very important battleground.

[dax00]

I just heard that during the convention, the delegates are unbound when voting for a VP candidate.  Meaning that if Trump wins the nomination on the first ballot, his #NeverTrump delegates could defect and nominate a VP candidate that Trump is forced to accept. 

That's an interesting scenario.

They could nominate Sarah "I can see Russia from my house" Palin.

Actually, it seems Cruz had a rare loss in Michigan.

In terms of committee assignments, it seems Trump and Kasich prevented an attempt by Cruz to just take everything over, and themselves locked Cruz supporters out.  It doesn't seem like this extended to delegates, where at least on the At-Large level I believe each candidate got what they wanted.

In particular, and hilariously, this means Chuck Yob is now on the Credentials Committee that will be deciding the fate of his son's contested delegation from the Virgin Islands.

This all but affirms my prediction that the 3 from the Yob coalition, if they hold their delegate spots, will side with Trump.

[dax00]

This seems to be the official Trump PA preferred delegate slate, as posted on Twitter

[dax00]

Is there going to be a good way to see how the uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates go tomorrow night?

I believe that PA won't release CD data until a good time after the primary - county results first - so we couldn't even infer for whom the delegate candidates who have stated they'd vote for their district winner would vote.

[dax00]

Just had a very interesting thought: Is it within the power of the CA Republican Party to open up their primary and flood the zone with Hispanic Dems to stop Trump?

On that note, is it within the power of the CA Democratic Party to make it a winner-take-all open caucus?

[dax00]

I side with the Yobs in the USVI, so Trump has 0 out of there.

Surely the only incentive for the Yobs to make it as delegates to the RNC is to pick up favors from Trump in exchange for their votes...? I've got a hard time believing they wouldn't go to Trump.

[dax00]

So the Donald's campaign was correct in asserting that he'd break 1400.