The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Gass3268]

Good work here! Thanks for taking on this daunting task.

[Gass3268]

This should definitely be stickied btw.

Seconded.

Thirded.

[Gass3268]

Based on polling in Texas, I think it would make sense to go 1. Cruz 2. Trump 3. Rubio there. This means Super Tuesday results would be:

Trump 250
Cruz 184
Rubio 149

Super Tuesday could be a very embarrassing delegate night for Rubio if he doesn't win a state like Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee.

[Gass3268]

MSNBC had on Ben Ginsberg (famous Republican consultant lawyer) and he said that the Rule 40 is based off the 2012 convention rules. He said that the number of states that you woul need a majority of the delegates in order to be on the first ballot will be determined by this years rules committee. He said it could be any number they wanted.

[Gass3268]

Do you know how the 3 different components split for the Democrats in MI?

[Gass3268]

I know this was probably mentioned earlier in the thread, but I don't want to dig.  Are all the GOP contests tomorrow WTA?

Florida and Ohio: WTA
Illinois: 15 statewide delegates are WTA, 3 delegates are directly elected by each congressional district (total of 54)
Missouri: WTA if over 50%, 12 statewide delegates are WTA, 5 WTA delegates by congressional district (total of 40)
North Carolina: Proportional, no threshold

[Gass3268]

I know this was probably mentioned earlier in the thread, but I don't want to dig.  Are all the GOP contests tomorrow WTA?

Florida and Ohio: WTA
Illinois: 15 statewide delegates are WTA, 3 delegates are directly elected by each congressional district (total of 54)
Missouri: WTA if over 50%, 12 statewide delegates are WTA, 5 WTA delegates by congressional district (total of 40)
North Carolina: Proportional, no threshold

Ahh, okay, thanks.  I knew FL and OH were.  I wasn't sure about the other three.  What about Arizona and Utah on March 22?

Arizona: WTA
Utah: Proportional, 15% threshold, WTA if majority (Cruz will probably get a majority)

[Gass3268]

Also note that my superdelegate count is ahead of the AP's by 28 supers, which makes a difference here as to what the media would report on June 5.  Presumably it's still short of Clinton's private count, but as stated she has little reason to roll them out obnoxiously on June 5.

The real question is whether the media (and Clinton) will declare victory on June 7, or wait a week until DC.

There's always the possibility Sanders suspends his campaign after he gets his requisite 25% of delegates (which I believe should happen on April 26), but it seems unlikely.

What is significant about 25%, again?

He gets influence over the convention and the platform.

[Gass3268]

Sanders got super unlucky with delegate splits. He's splitting 3-3 in WI-1, WI-6, WI-7, and WI-8.

I would be in favor in the next cycle that every CD is attached an odd number of delegates. Winning a CD should matter.

[Gass3268]

Allocating delegates by CD is an idiotic idea to begin with considering how badly we get screwed by GOP gerrymanders. No need to validate them through our primary process.

Delegate by county or maybe districts drawn by the DNC that are appropriated by Democratic vote strength? I still think you need to have some sort of representation by area in a state.

[Gass3268]

According to my math, with 1307 pledged delegates, she needs another 1076 pledged delegates to get to 2383 delegates overall not including superdelegates, which is 65.3% of the remaining pledged delegates. This is what she needs for Sanders to concede before the convention. I believe he's said that he would take it to the convention if neither candidate had a majority of all delegates with just pledged delegates.

She would obviously win a contested convention when the super delegates will support her with North Korea margins, its just notable that Bernie Sanders will likely be a large force there.

Depending on how the next two weeks (NY, PA, MD, etc) plus the last week (CA & NJ) go, she might get that number.

[Gass3268]

According to my math, with 1307 pledged delegates, she needs another 1076 pledged delegates to get to 2383 delegates overall not including superdelegates, which is 65.3% of the remaining pledged delegates. This is what she needs for Sanders to concede before the convention. I believe he's said that he would take it to the convention if neither candidate had a majority of all delegates with just pledged delegates.

She would obviously win a contested convention when the super delegates will support her with North Korea margins, its just notable that Bernie Sanders will likely be a large force there.

Depending on how the next two weeks (NY, PA, MD, etc) plus the last week (CA & NJ) go, she might get that number.

You think she get around 65% of the vote overall in those states?

Whoops, I read that wrong. Yeah Sanders is going to make everyone vote at the convention.

[Gass3268]

The Cruz campaign claims that their Pennsylvania delegate operation is so good that they're going to get more than half the delegates even if he comes in a distant third in the popular vote:

link

OTOH, this story paints a rather different picture:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-s-new-delegate-strategy-takes-root-pennsylvania-n558681

Everything that I've heard is that a majority of the delegates in PA have said that they will follow the will of the voters in their CD.

If Trump gets >150 in CA, does IN still matter for him?

As long as he gets 6-9 delegates there, probably not.

[Gass3268]

I found this online about the PA Unbound Delegates
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/htmlview?pli=1

Good work!

[Gass3268]

So if Trump clinches on the 1st ballot but Cruz has a majority on the floor in Cleveland, Cruz effectively gets to set the 2020 delegate rules, right?  And he would obviously consider himself the next-in-line for the nomination.  So look for Texas to have 750 delegates awarded WTA to the statewide winner in 2020, while the all of the Northeast states combined get to elect 200 formally unpledged delegates at conventions, with convention meetings to be held from 1-7 am on a Monday morning in the least populous county in each state?

A lot of those decisions are determined by the state parties and state legislatures/governments, not the national party. He could probably convince Texas to go to WTA, but the stuff in the Northeast won't happen. Also I can't imagine them going away from delegating delegates to each state based on the # of Republican voters.