The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Wisconsin+17]

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Cruz is picking up Trump delegates bound to him on the first ballot. I'm not sure how many total he has so far, but he's getting to the point where it's possible if Cruz fights it out to the convention and does well, that he could win on the second ballot.

He's also picking up a few here and there on the first ballot, mostly Rubio's.

Once Cruz picks up 200+ of Trump's second ballots then the game becomes much more interesting.

[Wisconsin+17]

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And Trump's the Candidate that will get there? I don't see it. 11 percent support among Hispanics pretty much dooms Trump in the General.

If he only polls 80 percent of the Romney whites, he's blown away in the election.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Changing none of the sliders, even with 30 percent black support, the Firewall holds. Right now Republicans are getting 7 percent. Republicans pick up Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

If he drops to 25 percent of Hispanics (from the 29 percent that Romney got), that doesn't change.

If he gets 30 percent of blacks, 25 percent of Hispanics and 80 percent of Romney's whites (with 20 percent not showing), he loses Florida.

[Wisconsin+17]

The reason why black voters are pretty much irrelevant to the Republican party - even with 0 percent black voters, all you need for a republican win is an increase in the turnout of whites without a degree, to 71 percent, and a slight increase in the percentage of whites with a degree voting Republican to 61 percent.

That... actually breaks the freiwall.

Blacks have made themselves demographically irrelevant in American elections.