Mexican state elections 2016

[jaichind]

As expected PAN still well ahead in Puebla



PAN-PANAL-PT    46.5%
PRI-PVEM           31.4%
MORENA              9.8%

It seems what PANAL is doing is look at each state, figure out which side is winning and then join that side, for a price of course.  Doing so I guess ensures enough votes to keep its line so it can do deals next election.

[bmw1503]

What accounts for PAN's strength on the state level in Puebla? Demographically, it would seem to be a state that was stronger for PRD and PRI; is it connected with the historical "Catholic/conservative" reputation of the city of Puebla or is it related to more modern factors?

[Hash]

Good lord, God help us if the PAN wins Tamaulipas. Their candidate is almost certainly a drug dealer.

[jaichind]

What accounts for PAN's strength on the state level in Puebla? Demographically, it would seem to be a state that was stronger for PRD and PRI; is it connected with the historical "Catholic/conservative" reputation of the city of Puebla or is it related to more modern factors?

I am not sure.  I think historically Puebla has had a PAN tilt.  It might be related to the fact that Puebla seems to have a fairly high educational attainment than rest of Mexico.  I know PRI electoral performance is negatively correlated with education.  So  as a result Puebla will have an anti-PRI tilt which might explain why PAN does well here.

Also I think the PAN candidate is a fairly popular mayor of Puebla City which is almost 40% of the population of Puebla state as well so he has some natural advantages.

[jaichind]

Good lord, God help us if the PAN wins Tamaulipas. Their candidate is almost certainly a drug dealer.

This is most likely true.  But at the expense of sounding like a part of the Trump campaign, my sense is that almost all politicians of all parities in the parts of Mexico that border the USA have links to organized crime.  Sometimes they have no choice because failure to do so might mean not just the end of their political life but they own personal lives. 

[ag]

Good lord, God help us if the PAN wins Tamaulipas. Their candidate is almost certainly a drug dealer.

Is this going to be any different from what it has been for the last 150 years?

[ag]

What accounts for PAN's strength on the state level in Puebla? Demographically, it would seem to be a state that was stronger for PRD and PRI; is it connected with the historical "Catholic/conservative" reputation of the city of Puebla or is it related to more modern factors?

Puebla has had a PRI/PAN bipartidism for a while. The state has a large urban core, and cities tend to be PANista. And, of course, it has a strong PAN incumbent.

One should not really think of PAN as purely a Catholic organization. It is the non-socialist non-PRI, and, as such, it is a catch-all for a lot of people.

[jaichind]

Some unknown pollster has MORENA polling ahead of PAN-PRD in Veracruz to take second place.

[Hash]

Mauricio Góngora (PRI-PVEM) leads Carlos Joaquín (PAN-PRD) 48% to 36% in a new Excelsior poll here in Quintana Roo, with the Morena candidate in third with 10% and the two other candidates (PT and PES) winning 4% and 2%.

[jaichind]

It just seems like PRI is gaining ground across the board mostly because, except for Puebla, the PAN-PRD alliance seems to be running out of steam which means PRI wins by default plus MORENA gaining ground in some states, even pushing PAN-PRD into second place in some of those states.

[ag]

At least in DF, I must say, this is a non-election. There is very little campaigning going on. Of course, the mandatory partisan spots are running. PANistas are represented by the avuncular voice of Santiago Creel calling to elect them to limit the "marches" and "take the streets back," MC runs a horrid jingle that makes one want to vote for anybody, who would ban it, etc., etc., but very little otherwise. Today for the first time I have seen a Morena poster on a private home in a poorish neighborhood. The only party to have taken to the bus sides seems to be PT: given their near brush with death, at least, they understand the value of reminding others of their existence. Otherwise, nothing that I can discern. I have a feeling that 90% of the population will have no clue how even to fill out the PR ballot (I have not seen a sample myself, and I am regularly going to talk to INE people for my own reasons). In fact, most people seem only to realize it is election time when they are not allowed to renew their voting ID, because we are in the pre-election moratorium on register updates.

In other news, which should go elsewhere, but might as well be mentioned here, last Wednesday died Luis H. Alvarez, the Gandhi of PANismo. He was 96, and active till the last few months.  RIP.

[jaichind]

Latest Reforma Oaxaca poll.  PRI still ahead, MORENA surging

PRI-PVEM-PANAL    34
PRD-PAN                30
MORENA                20
PT                          11

[jaichind]

PRI ahead of PAN-PRD in Durango 49-42.  PAN-PRD is doing a good job of keeping this kind of close in this very strong PRI state.

[jaichind]

Another ZACATECAS poll with MORENA's Monreal running second.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     36
MORENA                  30
PAN-PRD                 21

[jaichind]

El universal poll in 3 way marginal  Tlaxcala now have PRI in the lead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      34.5%
PRD                          28.1%
PAN                          21.6%
MORENA                     7.6%

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/estados/2016/05/23/aventaja-pri-en-tlaxcala

Again, MORENA is eating into the PRD vote helping PRI indirectly.

[jaichind]

El universal poll in  Chihuahua still have PRI in the lead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL          44.0%
PAN                              35.6%
Independent                 12.8%

https://www.proceso.com.mx/441683/aventaja-candidato-del-pri-en-chihuahua-segun-encuesta-de-el-universal

The independent candidate seems to have fallen back from previous polls

[ag]

Lopez Obrador has taped commercials endorsing the PRI candidate in Veracruz. I mean, Arturo Lopez Obrador: the PRIista brother of Andres Manuel

[jaichind]

Lopez Obrador has taped commercials endorsing the PRI candidate in Veracruz. I mean, Arturo Lopez Obrador: the PRIista brother of Andres Manuel

Really?  AMLO's brother did not join MORENA.  wow

[jaichind]

PRI recaptures the lead in Aguascalientes (I think some other poll had PAN ahead).




PRI-PVEM-PANAL     30.5%
PAN                         25.8%

But this one seems that it will be close

[Zanas]

If there's one thing I've learned from this thread, it's that Mexican pollsters/newspapers don't have f****ing clue about how histograms work. Geez...

[ag]

If there's one thing I've learned from this thread, it's that Mexican pollsters/newspapers don't have f****ing clue about how histograms work. Geez...

Getting a decent histogram in Mexico is tough. I tell you, having just read 30+ term papers And, yes, I cringe every time I see a newspaper histogram here.

[ag]

Lopez Obrador has taped commercials endorsing the PRI candidate in Veracruz. I mean, Arturo Lopez Obrador: the PRIista brother of Andres Manuel

Really?  AMLO's brother did not join MORENA.  wow

Well, today AMLO has announced he is divorcing his brother Actually, he has declared that "I do not have brothers anymore. 10 mln. Mexicans are my brothers." Arturo responded that Andres Manuel is a "tyrant".

A guess, Arturo Lopez Obrador knows his former brother better than most people around there

[ag]

Apparently, PANista internal polling suggests they may be ahead in 3 states. Who knows.

[jaichind]

Apparently, PANista internal polling suggests they may be ahead in 3 states. Who knows.

Certainly within the realm of possibility.  It seems PAN has a solid lead in Puebla and most media polls has PRI-PAN neck-to-neck with a slight edge to PRI in Aguascalientes  and Tamaulipas.  It is totally possible for PAN internal polls to honestly show that it is ahead in  Aguascalientes  and Tamaulipas.
 

[jaichind]

I actually found this very useful historical chart on which parties won which governorships in the states up for governor elections in this cycle.  Of course before the 1980s it was all PRI.