Mexican state elections 2016

[ag]

I have made such a table for all states some time ago. Will try to look it up.

[jaichind]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

I think I found a poll for this



MORENA           34
PRD                  17
PAN                  16
PRI                   15
PVEM                  4

I wonder what the threshold vote to get seats?  If there is none then in de facto terms it is 1.66% since 60 will be elected

[ag]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

I think I found a poll for this



MORENA           34
PRD                  17
PAN                  16
PRI                   15
PVEM                  4

I wonder what the threshold vote to get seats?  If there is none then in de facto terms it is 1.66% since 60 will be elected

I have not checked, but since we have 3% treshold for almost anything these days, I would be shocked if it is anything else. Let me search, though.

Update: I just checked the law. It is not very clearly written for a non-lawyer, since it refers on this to other electoral legislation. My reading of it is that independents do not have any threshold: i.e., 1.66% is what they need to get. Parties, though, on my reading, will have to get 3% of the valid votes not going to independent candidates. But I may be wrong.

[jaichind]

In the famous border city of Ciudad Juárez of Chihuahua with a very turbulent history of drug cartels violence an independent candidate, Hector Alvidrez, is now tied with PRI.  Another El Bronco?

Of course my understanding is that the crime rate is now actually falling from the peak several years ago so it is interesting that the voting population is now willing to try more unconventional political solutions.  


 

PRI-PVEM-PT-PANAL    39
Independent               39
PAN                            15

[jaichind]

I have not checked, but since we have 3% treshold for almost anything these days, I would be shocked if it is anything else. Let me search, though.

Update: I just checked the law. It is not very clearly written for a non-lawyer, since it refers on this to other electoral legislation. My reading of it is that independents do not have any threshold: i.e., 1.66% is what they need to get. Parties, though, on my reading, will have to get 3% of the valid votes not going to independent candidates. But I may be wrong.

How interesting.  Of course a PR system takes away any structure for party alliances which is more for a FPTP system.  It seems to me parties like PT MC and PANAL which will need alliances to ensure it gets above 3% will now suffer in this system especially if the perception is if any of them will not make it past 3%.  Looking at the pool PT and PANAL are in danger of falling into that category.

[jaichind]

Another poll has the MORENA surge in Veracruz continuing



PRI-PVEM-PANAL           25
PAN-PRD                       20
MORENA                       24

Same poll shows the MORENA candidate have the best net favorable at +40 while the PRI-PVEM-PANAL and PAN-PRD candidates have  net favorable at -3 and -2.   



This would imply that once tactical voting takes place it will work to the advantage of MORENA.


Yet another has MORENA neck-to-neck with PAN-PRD for second



PRI-PVEM-PANAL           25.9
PAN-PRD                       19.1
MORENA                       20.3

[jaichind]

Another Aguascalientes poll showing PRI with a slight lead over PAN



PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT         47
PAN                                 43

[jaichind]

A Sinaloa poll showing PRI ahead but a surprising level of support for PAS-MC.  PAS is a center-left regional party in Sinaloa.



PRI-PVEM-PANAL          35
PAS-MC                        25
PAN                              24

[jaichind]

I am not sure when in May El Financiero did this poll for Oaxaca but it matches others with PRI ahead and MORENA getting a good chunk of the vote.  When compared to March it seems the top 3 parties are growing at the expense of the smaller parties.



                              March    May
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       35      37
PRD-PAN                   26      28
MORENA                   15      18
PT                             14      12

[jaichind]

 El Financiero poll in Veracruz that has PRI PAN-PRD neck-to-neck with a strong performance for MORENA.  Problem for PAN-PRD is that this represents a large drop since April



                                   April        May
PRI-PVEM-PANAL           35         33
PAN-PRD                       43         34
MORENA                       16         26

It seems that all signs point to a large surge for MORENA in Veracruz in the last month or so.

[BundouYMB]

When do these elections take place?

I can't find the date in this thread or on wikipedia.

[ag]

When do these elections take place?

I can't find the date in this thread or on wikipedia.

June 5.
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_estatales_de_México

[BundouYMB]

When do these elections take place?

I can't find the date in this thread or on wikipedia.

June 5.
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_estatales_de_México

Thanks.

[jaichind]

Yet another Zacatecas poll with similar results of MORENA's Monreal running second.



PRI-PVEM-PANAL            35.20%
MORENA                        29.95%
PRD-PAN                        19.60%

It puts PRD-PAN voter in the impossible situation of needing to tactically vote for MORENA to stop PRI yet at the same time strengthening MORENA is the last thing PRD-PAN wants right now.

[ag]

Yet another Zacatecas poll with similar results of MORENA's Monreal running second.



PRI-PVEM-PANAL            35.20%
MORENA                        29.95%
PRD-PAN                        19.60%

It puts PRD-PAN voter in the impossible situation of needing to tactically vote for MORENA to stop PRI yet at the same time strengthening MORENA is the last thing PRD-PAN wants right now.

Well, at least some PRD people in Zacatecas will be fine with that. Remember: Zacatecas is the one state where a Morena vote is not an AMLO vote, but a Monreal vote. So, what matters is: how much they hate Monreals. And that is a a separate matter.

[jaichind]

A Oaxaca poll has PT surging as well into a 3 way tie for second



PRI-PVEM-PANAL       29.1     
PRD-PAN                   20.7   
MORENA                   17.3   
PT                             18.2     

[jaichind]

Chart on which seats will be up for election June 6.  It is not just governors but some State assemblies and mayors.

[jaichind]

Quintana Roo poll has PRI ahead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      36
PAN-PRD                  26
MORENA                  10

[jaichind]

3 separate of polls has PAN ahead in Puebla



PAN-PT-PANAL    46.2   43   44
PRI-PVEM           32.2    32   33

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll in  Chihuahua  has PRI still ahead but PAN closing the gap compared to other polls.  The independent has a good deal of support but it seems too late for him to become El Bronco



PRI-PVEM-PANAL          42
PAN                              37
Independent                 14

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll in  3 way marginal  Tlaxcala has PRD retaking the lead as PAN seems to be losing support just like over polls



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      28
PRD                          31
PAN                          24
MORENA                     6

[jaichind]

BGC poll in the largest prize in this election has PAN-PRD coming back Veracruz to force a 3 way tie !!



PRI-PVEM-PANAL           31
PAN-PRD                       31
MORENA                       31

[jaichind]

Some unknown pollster has MORENA ahead in Veracruz



PRI-PVEM-PANAL           33.5%
PAN-PRD                       33.0%
MORENA                       28.0%

[jaichind]

Here is a poll of who you will never vote for in Oaxaca



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   42.8
PRD-PAN               20.9

Of course PRD-PAN, MORENA and even PT are in the running so the anti-PRI vote will be split.  I wonder if there will be last minute tactical voting to stop PRI given these numbers.

[Hash]

That's not a poll for who you will never vote for, that's a poll for who you think is going to win.