Mexican state elections 2016

[ag]

Municipals. Just important towns

Aguascalientes: PAN ahead in Aguascalientes, Calvillo and Jesus Maria - the only three towns of note in the state.

Chihuahua: PAN aheand in Chihuahua, Cuauhtemoc and Delicias. Independents ahead in Juarez and Hidalgo del Parral.

Durango (reporting is not easy to read, so some mistakes likely): PAN ahead in Durango, PRI ahead in Gomez Palacio and Lerdo.

Hidalgo (same problem as in Durango): PAN seems to be ahead in Pachuca

Oaxaca: PRI ahead in Oaxaca, PAN/PRD ahead in Juchitan. Plurality of votes in Salina Cruz blanc! What the...

QR: PAN ahead in Chetumal, Playa del Carmen and Cozumel. PRI ahead in Cancun, Felipe Carillo Puerto and Tulum.

Sinaloa: PRI ahead in Culiacan and Guasave, PAN ahead in Ahome and Mazatlan

Tamaulipas (same problem as Durango and Hidalgo): PAN ahead in Madero, Nuevo Laredo and Reynosa,  PRI ahead in Matamoros, Tampico and Ciudad Victoria.

Tlaxcala: PRI is winning Tlaxcala, Chiautempan, Huamantla, PAN is winning Apizaco.

Zacatecas: PRI is winning Fresnillo and Jerez. PAN/PRD is winning Sombrerete. Morena is winning Zacatecas City.

Baja California: PAN is winning Mexicali, Tijuana and Playas de Rosarito. PRI is winning Tecate. Independent is winning Ensenada.

[ag]

So all these imposting alliances that PRI manage to line up in almost every state other than Puebla did not end up getting PRI the votes.  Either the voting base of these parties like PVEM PANAL and sometimes PT did not vote for the PRI candidate or there was a swing from PRI to PAN in the Northern states or both.

PT voters, certainly, would have hard time voting for PRI. The rest would not, but those parties do not have that much committed base. Especially, since Elba Ester Gordillo has been imprisoned, and Sen. Monica Arriola (her daughter) died, Panal is rudderless, and the teacher's union link is unclear anymore. Unless they find another reason to exist, they will not exist after 2018.

[jaichind]

It seems PAN-PRD wins in the wealthier Northern states while PRI wins in the Southern lower income states.  Only real exception seems to Veracruz which I count as a lower income (and Southern) state and Sinaloa which I would count as a higher income state (and Northern).

[ag]

It seems PAN-PRD wins in the wealthier Northern states while PRI wins in the Southern lower income states.  Only real exception seems to Veracruz which I count as a lower income (and Southern) state and Sinaloa which I would count as a higher income state (and Northern).

Well, it is, basically, evidence of PAN strength and PRD weakness. PAN is not much present in the South, so the dominant partner there is the PRD, and it just did not perform.

Veracruz is only a partial exception, since it is so big. It, traditionally, has PANista, PRIista and leftist areas. A PANista governor will fill himself as much out of place in the leftist Xalapa as his PRIista predecessor, but will be comfortable in the port city itself.

Sinaloa is a true exception. The previous governor being a nominal PANista, but, really, being a strong non-partisan caudillo, simply destroyed the party there. Not unnaturally, the non-PRI forces tried to congregate in MC, but it was not enough.

[ag]

PAN at over 50% in Tamaulipas (even if you include the null votes). Very impressive!

[jaichind]

PAN at over 50% in Tamaulipas (even if you include the null votes). Very impressive!

Yes it is and they did it without an alliance with PRD.  The polls had it neck-to-neck but it seems PAN had a breakout election result in a state they never won before.  They also broke past the 2006 Calderon peak in terms of vote share.  I guess the voters in  Tamaulipas finally had enough of PRI after 87 years.

[ag]

PAN at over 50% in Tamaulipas (even if you include the null votes). Very impressive!

Yes it is and they did it without an alliance with PRD.  The polls had it neck-to-neck but it seems PAN had a breakout election result in a state they never won before.  They also broke past the 2006 Calderon peak in terms of vote share.  I guess the voters in  Tamaulipas finally had enough of PRI after 87 years.

Wasn't Tamaulipas peak for PAN in 2012? It was one of the very few states where Josefina did very well.

Tamaulipas was going that way for a while. It could have switched in 2010, but the PRIista candidate was assassinated, resulting in the huge sympathy vote going to his brother, who substituted. This time there was no drama.

[ag]

BTW, there was a strange incident in Veracruz. PANista Sen. Fernando Yunes (I guess, another Yunes cousin) has been detained at some state checkpoint and ordered to undergo a car search. He refused, and stayed in a locked car, that was towed away, for several hours, before released by the Federal forces.

[jaichind]

PAN at over 50% in Tamaulipas (even if you include the null votes). Very impressive!

Yes it is and they did it without an alliance with PRD.  The polls had it neck-to-neck but it seems PAN had a breakout election result in a state they never won before.  They also broke past the 2006 Calderon peak in terms of vote share.  I guess the voters in  Tamaulipas finally had enough of PRI after 87 years.

Wasn't Tamaulipas peak for PAN in 2012? It was one of the very few states where Josefina did very well.

Tamaulipas was going that way for a while. It could have switched in 2010, but the PRIista candidate was assassinated, resulting in the huge sympathy vote going to his brother, who substituted. This time there was no drama.

Hmmmm you are right although barely. In 2006 PAN was at 42.12% in Tamaulipas  and in 2012 PAN  was at 42.66%.  Still it is clear that Tamaulipas is trending PAN.  But to get above 50% of the vote is a blowout.  And in 2010 my understaning was that PAN-PRD had an alliance which is not in place this time.  The 50%+ vote share is indicative of how much the Left have fell in Northern states that PAN can get this sort of support without an alliance with PRD.

[jaichind]

INE asks not to declare victories. Then Beltrones says PRI won 9 and Anaya says PAN won "at least" 3

In retrospect PAN was too conservative ... BTW, will INE come up with fines for PRI and PAN for claming victory?  I wonder which 9 the PRI was claiming as PRI was unexpectedly blown away in Quintana Roo, Chihuahua,  Durango, and Tamaulipas.  The exit polls were wrong too. El Financiero’exit poll has PRI at least competitive or winning in Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Aguascalientes and Tamaulipas.  Veracruz and  Aguascalientes make sense as they were close but Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas were not even close.

[ag]

INE asks not to declare victories. Then Beltrones says PRI won 9 and Anaya says PAN won "at least" 3

In retrospect PAN was too conservative ... BTW, will INE come up with fines for PRI and PAN for claming victory?  I wonder which 9 the PRI was claiming as PRI was unexpectedly blown away in Quintana Roo, Chihuahua,  Durango, and Tamaulipas.  The exit polls were wrong too. El Financiero’exit poll has PRI at least competitive or winning in Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Aguascalientes and Tamaulipas.  Veracruz and  Aguascalientes make sense as they were close but Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas were not even close.

There will be fines for something, though, probably, not for this. INE always imposes fines

I wonder, if the exit polls being wrong could have something to do with paying for votes. I mean, if you took cash (or, say, a fridge) from PRI, you are going to say you voted for them, irrespective of how you really voted.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why doesn't Mexico use run-offs?

[jaichind]

It was not a good night for PRD but it did get one governorship out of it, that of small but wealthy Quintana Roo.

[jaichind]

In Veracruz it is now for non-null vote

PAN-PRD               35.33%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.40%
MORENA               27.10%

With PAN and PRI gaining and MORENA losing ground.

[ag]

Why doesn't Mexico use run-offs?

And why does not US? Why would you want run-offs?

[jaichind]

PREP done in Chihuahua the non null vote is

PAN                            40.09%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT    32.28%
Ind.                             18.85%

PRI and Independent candidate seems to be gaining a bit vote share at the expense of PAN

[jaichind]

In Durango with PREP done it seems to be In Durango it is PAN 47.02% PRI-PVEM-PANAL  43.36%. 
Both PAN and PRI gained at the expense of small players. 

[jaichind]

In Hidalgo with PREP done it seems to be

PRI-PVEM-PANAL         45.55%
PAN                             28.85%
PRD                             15.05%
MORENA                        7.73%

PRI gained at expense of all other players from earlier version of the count

[jaichind]

In Aguascalientes after PREP is done it is PAN 44.64% PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT 42.40%.  Almost no change from earlier count.

[jaichind]

In Oaxaca it is now with PREP done

PRI-PVEM-PANAL 33.24%
PRD-PAN             25.90%
MORENA             23.67%
PT                       11.34%

PRI and PT gained from the other two blocs from earlier counts.

[jaichind]

In Puebla with PREP done is PAN-PT-PANAL  47.14% PRI-PVEM 34.92% MORENA 9.92%.  No change from earlier counts.

[jaichind]

With PREP done in Quintana Roo it is PRD-PAN 47.02% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 36.73% MORENA 11.27%.  PRI and MORENA gaining from PAN relative to earlier counts.

[jaichind]

In Sinaloa with PREP done it is PRI-PVEM-PANAL 42.35% MC-PAS 27.12% PAN 18.26%.  No real change from earlier counts.

[jaichind]

In Tamaulipas with PREP done it is PAN 51.11% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 36.73% MC 5.92%.  Slight gain for PRI from earlier counts.

[jaichind]

In Tlaxcala with PREP done it is

PRI-PVEM-PANAL 34.50%
PRD                     30.83%
PAN                     18.94% 
MORENA                6.46%

PRD gaining from PRI from earlier in the count.