Mexican state elections 2016

[jaichind]

In Zacatecas with PREP done  it is  PRI-PVEM-PANAL 38.41% MORENA 28.02% PRD-PAN 18.50% with MORENA gaining from PRI from earlier in the count.

[jaichind]

In Veracruz with PREP done it is

PAN-PRD               35.42%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.43%
MORENA               27.02%

PRI and PAN gained from more from MORENA.

[jaichind]

With these numbers the updated average PRI bloc vote share in states that it won is 38.81% and the average PRI bloc vote share in states that it lost is 36.84%.  A gap of less than 2%.  Ability to polarize the state around PRI vs anti-PRI forces seems to be the main determining factor between victory and defeat.  In theory PRI should have won Veracruz given how strong MORENA ran there but I guess the PRI record there was so bad and the PRI brand so badly damaged that even that anti-PRI split did not stop it from losing.

[Zanas]

Is the result wholly about local interests, or is it some kind of a message sent to Peña Nieto and the federal administration ? And if the latter, would they actually hear it ?

[ag]

Is the result wholly about local interests, or is it some kind of a message sent to Peña Nieto and the federal administration ? And if the latter, would they actually hear it ?

The government is horridly corrupt, even by Mexican standards. And not very exciting in any other sense.

[jaichind]

In Durango  it was clear there was tactical voting to ensure the defeat of PRI at the governor level.  There were State legislative elections taking place at the same time and the votes cast in those elections clearly has PRI-PVEM-PANAL beating PAN-PRD.  But voters that voted for PT, MC, PES and even MORENA in the legislative race had significant part of them voting for PAN-PRD to ensure the defeat of PRI at the governor level.  I assume these voters still voted for PT MC PES or MORENA at the legislative level even though their party had no chance either in their districts is for the PR slate.  The PR slate is irrelevant at the governor election level.

[jaichind]

In Aguascalientes‎, looking at the legislative voting results there does not seem to be any real anti-PRI tactical voting.  Both the PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT and the PAN candidate got more votes than what they got in the legislative races and in the same proportion.  So there was tactical voting but PRI did not suffer as a result.   Aguascalientes always was suppose to be neck-to-neck as per polls and this result seems to validate the polls as the results were very close.

[jaichind]

In Chihuahua‎ it seems that PAN narrowly beat out PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT in the legislative races in terms of vote share which is impressive.  The independent candidate seems to have drawn a good deal  of the PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT vote share which made the scale of the PAN victory greater.  Also MORENA got a lot more votes in the legislative races than in the governor race and given the independent candidate is anti-AMLO the only conclusion is that they tactically voted for PAN.  This seems to prove that in Northern states despite the negative attitude of MORENA toward PAN, its voters are willing to vote PAN to beat PRI.  This is a dangerous trend for PRI.

[jaichind]

In Quintana Roo we have a similar situation as Chihuahua‎ where in legislative races PRI-PVEM-PANAL narrowly beat out PRD-PAN in terms of vote but due to a small defection in the  PRI-PVEM-PANAL  vote plus large scale tactical voting by PT MC PES and also MORENA the scale of the PRD-PAN victory became quite large. 

[jaichind]

In Tamaulipas it is the same story.  PAN legislative vote share beat out PRI-PVEM-PANAL by a significant but not massive margin (around 5%).  But due to a small defection of the PRI-PVEM-PANAL vote plus large scale defections of PT MC PES and MORENA vote gave the PAN a large victory.

[jaichind]

In Hidalgo‎ we have a different dynamic.  The legislative vote had a large lead for PRI-PVEM-PANAL over PAN.  MC and PES had a significant number of votes in the legislative vote but did not run a candidate for governor.  These votes seems to be split between PRI PAN and PRD which a bias toward PAN since PES are likely to have voted PAN and MC split their votes between PRI and PRD.  MORENA held on to their vote from the legislative vote for their Governor candidate.    There does not seem to be any signs of large scale tactical voting favoring any party.

[jaichind]

In Zacatecas PRI-PVEM-PANAL had a significant lead over everyone else in the legislative vote with PRD-PAN and MORENA evenly matched.  There seems to be some attempt at tactical voting for the governor race with the PT MC vote going MORENA.  PRD-PAN vote seems to have splintered  with most staying with PRD-PAN but some PAN voters going to PES and some PRD voters going to MORENA to try to stop PRI.  Ineffective tactical voting here gave it to PRI.

[jaichind]

In Veracruz it seems in the legislative vote PRI-PVEM-PANAL actually won a small plurality in the legislative vote over PAN-PRD and MORENA with a small lead over PAN-PRD.  But both PAN-PRD and MORENA gained PRI-PVEM-PANAL votes in the governor race to drive PRI into second place behind PAN-PRD.  In fact MORENA gained twice as many from PRI as PAN-PRD but the net effect was to push the PRI bloc behind PAN-PRD.

[jaichind]

It seems that polls being wrong in this election seems has a lot to do with the fact in certain states some voters voted PRI in the legislative races but voted anti-PRI in the governor races plus unusually strong anti-PRI tactical voting by non-PRI non-PNA-PRD parties like PT MC PES and especially MORENA.  It seems these polls would be accurate had the answer to the poll question was more along the lines of "who will you vote for in the state legislative race and not who will you vote for in the governor race?"

[jaichind]

Some data on results of State congress elections that took place the same day as the governor races.  These are FPTP results and does not include PR yet.  

For Veracruz PAN-PRD has a pluarity in a close 3 way race between the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL), PAN-PRD, and MORENA.



For Aguascalientes PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT) has a majority despite losing the governor race narrowly



For Chihuahua the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT) mostly ran separately and the vote split allowed PAN to capture a majority whereas if they stuck together it would have been neck-to-neck.



For Tamaulipas, the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL) mostly ran separately allowing PAN to win a majority larger than had they stuck together.



For Durango the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL) stayed together in enough seats for PRI bloc to win a majority despite losing the governor race.



In Quintana Roo the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL) stayed together and defeated PRD-PAN with a majority despite losing the governor race.



In Oaxaca, the split of the anti-PRI vote between PRD-PAN PT MORENA for the govenor race was resplicated in the state congress election giving the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL) a majority despite a fairly low vote share



In Hidalgo the PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL) ran together only in a few seats but the size of the PRI lead over PAN and PRD who ran separately was enough for PRI to win a majority with ease.



In Sinaloa the split of the anti-PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)) vote between PAN and MC-PAS for the governor race was replicated at the state congress level giving PRI a landslide majority



In  Zacatecas  the split of the anti-PRI bloc (PRI-PVEM-PANAL) vote between PAN-PRD and MORENA for the governor race was replicated at the state congress level giving PRI a landslide majority



In  Tlaxcala the PRI bloc  (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)  narrowly beat out PRD with PAN and MORENA splitting the anti-PRI vote.  At the state congress level the same pattern persisted to give PRI bloc a narrow majority.

[jaichind]

It seems that in Veracruz after adding in the PR seats the state congress distribution will be

Out of 50 which 48 are known

PAN         16
MORENA  12
PRI          10
PRD           5
PVEM         4
PANAL       1

It seems PAN-PRD will be far from a majority and for the new PAN governor to be effective he will need to make deals with either MORENA or PRI to get a majority.

[ag]

It seems that in Veracruz after adding in the PR seats the state congress distribution will be

Out of 50 which 48 are known

PAN         16
MORENA  12
PRI          10
PRD           5
PVEM         4
PANAL       1

It seems PAN-PRD will be far from a majority and for the new PAN governor to be effective he will need to make deals with either MORENA or PRI to get a majority.

Or he'd use the perennial "for sale" votes of PVEM and PANAL.

[ag]

Beltrones resigned as PRI leader today..

Basave, of PRD, had resigned earlier.