Mexican state elections 2016

[ag]

Colima voted yesterday: the rerun of 2015, after being annulled by courts. PRI candidate confirmed his victory. Formally, according to PREP, it is

Ignacio Peralta (PRI/PVEM/PT/Panal) 43.24%
Jorge Luis Preciado (PAN) 39.54%
Leoncio Moran (MC) 12.01%
Martha Zepeda (PRD) 1.87%
Jose Gallardo (Morena) 0.82%
Gerardo Galvan (PES) 0.44%

[Danderns]

Has MC taken support from PRD?

[ag]

Has MC taken support from PRD?

Not really. Colima is not a state with a lot of PRD. In 2009 PRD had 2.1% there (and Convergencia - the present-day MC - 0.6%).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Has MC taken support from PRD?

In all likelihood, the MCs took votes away from PAN. This was, and likely remains, the pattern of MC support in 2015.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do PT normally ally with the PRI?

[ag]

Do PT normally ally with the PRI?

No, but sometimes it happens

[ag]

Leaders of PAN and PRD are meeting right now to figure out in which states they will go in alliances. The idea is that they decide on pairs of states: the one in which there will be a PAN candidate in exchange for the one in which PRD will run. So far, the only concluded alliance is the Zacatecas/Durango pairing. Hidalgo/Tamaulipas failed outright (they have, actually, missed the filing deadlines already). The rest is going tough. Basave, the current PRD leader, nearly resigned over the entire issue.

[jaichind]

Colima voted yesterday: the rerun of 2015, after being annulled by courts. PRI candidate confirmed his victory. Formally, according to PREP, it is

Ignacio Peralta (PRI/PVEM/PT/Panal) 43.24%
Jorge Luis Preciado (PAN) 39.54%
Leoncio Moran (MC) 12.01%
Martha Zepeda (PRD) 1.87%
Jose Gallardo (Morena) 0.82%
Gerardo Galvan (PES) 0.44%

PRI did even better than it did back in July 2015 by gaining vote share whereas PAN stayed the same as July 2015.  This is impressive as one would expect that anti-incumbency will grow as time goes on.   Perhaps this is an "El Chapo" recapture bounce ?

[jaichind]

For 2016 I assume the Governor elections are for

Aguascalientes (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence) 
Chihuahua  (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence) 
Durango (current PRI which won against PAN-PRD last time and it seems alliance is on again)
Hidalgo (current PRI which won against PAN-PRD last time and it seems alliance is on again)
Oaxaca (current MC also backed by PAN-PRD which won against PRI, not clear if alliance will continue)
Puebla (current PAN also backed by PRD, not clear if alliance will continue)
Quintana Roo (current PRI who beat PRD and PAN running separately, likely same result this time)
Sinaloa (current PAN also backed by PRD, not clear if alliance will continue)
Tamaulipas (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence)
Tlaxcala  (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with weak PRD presence)
Veracruz  (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground but PRD backing PAN will make difference)
Zacatecas  (current PRI who beat PRD and PAN running  separately, likely same result this time)

[ag]

Already a few things will be different. For instance, PAN/PRD alliance has failed in Hidalgo. Tlaxcala, if the alliance is successful, will be given to PRD in exchange for Puebla being contested by PAN (remember, Tlaxcala is one of the few states where all three major parties have held the governorship), Zacatecas seems to have been successfully negotiated as the PRD state (Durango going to PAN in exchange), etc.

[ag]

Colima voted yesterday: the rerun of 2015, after being annulled by courts. PRI candidate confirmed his victory. Formally, according to PREP, it is

Ignacio Peralta (PRI/PVEM/PT/Panal) 43.24%
Jorge Luis Preciado (PAN) 39.54%
Leoncio Moran (MC) 12.01%
Martha Zepeda (PRD) 1.87%
Jose Gallardo (Morena) 0.82%
Gerardo Galvan (PES) 0.44%

PRI did even better than it did back in July 2015 by gaining vote share whereas PAN stayed the same as July 2015.  This is impressive as one would expect that anti-incumbency will grow as time goes on.   Perhaps this is an "El Chapo" recapture bounce ?

More like very competent party administration by Manlio Fabio Beltrones. Remember the name.

[jaichind]

I am surprised that the PRD is talking to PAN at all.  It makes logical sense but problem is, unlike 2010, we now have MORENA.  So for states that PRD cede to PAN to run, MORENA will run and try to take over the PRD organization along the way and pointing out that the PRD sold out.   I guess this why the PRD is under so much pressure during these talks with PAN.

[ag]

I am surprised that the PRD is talking to PAN at all.  It makes logical sense but problem is, unlike 2010, we now have MORENA.  So for states that PRD cede to PAN to run, MORENA will run and try to take over the PRD organization along the way and pointing out that the PRD sold out.   I guess this why the PRD is under so much pressure during these talks with PAN.

True in part. But PRD consists of various "currents" or "tribes", and some of those tribes hate AMLO more than anything else on this planet. So, at least that part of the organisation will not go with Morena under any circumstances. The other tribes, of course, object to the PAN alliance. In any case, in many of  the states that PRD cedes to PAN there is not much PRD or Morena organization to begin with.

[ag]

At his point, the big discussion are the Puebla/Tlaxcala and Veracruz/Oaxaca pairings.

[jaichind]

At his point, the big discussion are the Puebla/Tlaxcala and Veracruz/Oaxaca pairings.

I assume for  Veracruz/Oaxaca it will be PAN for Veracruz and PRD for Oaxaca and for Puebla/Tlaxcala it will be PAN for Puebla and PRD for Tlaxcala if a deal is struck. 

[ag]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

[jaichind]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

Oh  I did not know that.  So will the Head of Government of the Federal District, which I think is Mancera, be renamed Governor of Mexico City?  Will they hold  an election now for the newly created role of Governor or wait until 2018?

[ag]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

Oh  I did not know that.  So will the Head of Government of the Federal District, which I think is Mancera, be renamed Governor of Mexico City?  Will they hold  an election now for the newly created role of Governor or wait until 2018?

This all depends on the Constitution they write. For the moment, we are just dealing with the elections to the Constituent Convention.

[ag]

Puebla/Tlaxcala deal is off: both parties failed to work it out. Veracruz/Oaxaca might still be on: at least PAN has approved it.

[jaichind]

Puebla/Tlaxcala deal is off: both parties failed to work it out. Veracruz/Oaxaca might still be on: at least PAN has approved it.

I imagine even without a deal there might be a lot of tactical voting by PRD voters for PAN in Puebla.  It might not help since it seems that MORENA is stronger here as the party of the Left versus the PRD so PRD tactical voting for PAN might not be enough.  In Tlaxcala it might become a free for all with everyone running which should throw the election to PRI.   It would be interesting if there is no deal in Oaxaca since I think in both 2004 and 2010 there were large anti-PRI alliances which included both PRI and PAN and now there will be a multi-polar race.

[ag]

For the moment it does look like most of the races are PRI's to lose. Their candidates are leading in the polls, and their alliances are set.

Manlio Fabio Beltrones (the current PRI leader) might be a dinosaur, but he has forgotten more about politics than all the leaders of the other parties (including AMLO) have ever known together. He is building it up for PRI nomination in 2018, and given his (very dark) reputation, the only way he can get it, is if his electoral record meanwhile is spotless. He is giving it his best. Scary guy he is, but one has to admire his skill.

[jaichind]

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/02/04/mexico/1454609543_900363.html

Seems to indicate that the PAN-PRD alliance has been formed in Veracruz and Oaxaca.  If this is effective on the ground it will complicate the PRI attempt to recapture Oaxaca and hold on to Veracruz.

[jaichind]

It seems in Aguascalientes, it will be PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PT which should give it an advantage over PAN even though this is a lean PAN state.  PANAL seems to have some strength here.  What is bizarre is that just a couple of months ago PANAL joined PAN to defeat PRI-PVEM in a Lower House re-vote of the Aguascalientes Federal 1st District Congressional race.  Now PANAL has swung back to PRI.

[jaichind]

In Sinaloa where a grand alliance PAN-PRD-MC won in 2010 over PRI things look better for PRI.  Not only is the PAN PRD alliance off but it seems PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier who won a seat as an independent last year in the Congressional elections will launch a campaign as an independent trying to replicate the "El Bronco" victory in NL last year.  More likely he is just going to split the PAN vote and help hand the election to PRI.

[ag]

In Sinaloa where a grand alliance PAN-PRD-MC won in 2010 over PRI things look better for PRI.  Not only is the PAN PRD alliance off but it seems PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier who won a seat as an independent last year in the Congressional elections will launch a campaign as an independent trying to replicate the "El Bronco" victory in NL last year.  More likely he is just going to split the PAN vote and help hand the election to PRI.

Malova, the outgoing Sinaloa governor, was no PANista. He ran on the PAN line, because PAN gave him the line. Local PAN did not get much out of his governorship.