Mexican state elections 2016

[jaichind]

Strategic Communications (CGE) made a projection on the governor races.  It projects PRI will  lose Veracruz, Quintana Roo, and Tlaxcala but projects PRI to capture Oaxaca and Sinaloa while PAN retains Puebla.  From a population pont of view this is a net defeat for PRI as Veracruz is a very large state.

[ag]

For Veracruz and QR this would be the first non-PRIista victory. Tlaxcala would confirm its status as a never-repeat state. It has been PRI/PRD/PAN/PRI in as many elections, so it would seem to be continuing on the second circle Zacatecas has been in the past a PRDista stronghold, and Chihuahua and Ags. have both seen PAN governments. Durango, Tamaulipas and Hidalgo are always faithful to the old party, it seems.

[jaichind]

A Covarrubias y Asociados survey has PRI with a large lead in Quintana Roo which seems to contradict other surveys.   Of course both this survey and the other one has MORENA having significant support which could torpedo the PAN-PRD alliance.

[jaichind]

PRI ahead in Sinaloa 35.1 vs 24.6.   I guess PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier did not end up running or else PAN would be even worse shape.

[jaichind]

Looks like PRI ahead in Oaxaca 25.9 over PAN at 19.8.  It seems this is a 4 way race with PT and MORENA both getting a big bloc of votes.

[jaichind]

I guess given the size of  Veracruz, this year's election win/loss threshold will come down to who wins  Veracruz, PRI or PAN/PRD.  It was close in both 2004 and 2010 where PAN came close to winning.  This time PRD is backing PAN so there is a solid chance that PAN could win.  If PAN/PRD wins it could create the circumstances where in 2018 PAN/PRD might run a joint candidate for President.  I guess the logic is that with PRI-PVEM getting above 30% and AMLO also getting above 30% then there has to be a joint candidate for PAN or PRD to stand a chance.  Running separate candidates might make 2018 a PRI vs AMLO affair.

[jaichind]

This guy

http://www.milenio.com/firmas/ricardo_aleman/El_PRI_ocho_triunfos_18_727907239.html

Has PRI with the advantage in  Veracruz, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, Durango, Hidalgo, Zacatecas.  It has PAN with the advantage Puebla, Aguascalientes, Tamaulipas  and PRD with the advantage in Tlaxcala.

If seems that the PRI-PAN marginals are  Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Aguascalientes, and Tamaulipas all of which are held by PRI today.  And PRI is set to recapture Oaxaca and  Sinaloa.  This seems to be a fairly anti-incumbent year.  I guess that is what you get with open seats all the time and no ability for re-election. 

[ag]

PRI ahead in Sinaloa 35.1 vs 24.6.   I guess PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier did not end up running or else PAN would be even worse shape.

Remember: last time PAN's victory was only "technical". Malova, the incumbent governor, is a caudillo, with zero party allegiance. He happened to choose the PAN/PRD lines, because these were made available to him. Counting him as a "panista" is not, really, proper.

[jaichind]

Close race in Veracruz.  It is PAN-PRD 33% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 32% MORENA 24%

[jaichind]

The polls that are coming out should be a worry for PRD. In the states where PRD has some presence and decided to back PAN, MORENA is running strong so the net affect is that PRI still is not stopped plus the PRD vote base going over to MORENA.   Worse, in places like  Oaxaca where PAN has backed PRD, internal splits had led to PRD rebel running at PT along with a strong MORENA dragging down the PRD ticket and giving the election to PRI.

[jaichind]

Tlaxcala has 3 way fight with PAN 30 PRD 29 PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PS 26

[ag]

Tlaxcala has 3 way fight with PAN 30 PRD 29 PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PS 26

The one consistently 3-party state of Mexico is true to its reputation

[jaichind]

Wait.  If I am reading this right, in Zacatecas PRD-PAN will nominate a PRI turncoat who is also the brother of the current PRI governor ??!!  Wow.

http://aristeguinoticias.com/1802/mexico/un-ex-priista-designado-como-candidato-del-prd-en-zacatecas/

brother-in-law

It looks like PRD-PAN nominated some other guy instead.  Anyway, it seems to be working out disastrously for PRD.    MORENA has jumped to second place behind PRI and ahead of PRD-PAN.



Which has
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        38
MORENA                    32
PRD-PAN                    19

[jaichind]

Another poll with the obvious that PRI is ahead in Durango.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PD            51
PAN-PRD                             41

[jaichind]

Another poll showing neck-to-neck between PRI and PAN in Aguascalientes

PAN                             45
PRI-PVEM-PT-PANAL     45

[jaichind]

I just noticed that this year PANAL is going with PRI in many states. 

[jaichind]

No PAN-PRD alliance in Puebla but that does not seem to be stopping PAN there from winning this very large state.

It has

PAN-PANAL-PT           46.5
PRI-PVEM                   31.4
MORENA                      9.8
PRD                             4.6

Again, MORENA running so much stronger than PRD has to be a concern for PRD that MORENA is slowly displacing PRD as the party of the Left.

[DC Al Fine]

Why is PT with PAN. That seems unusual to me.

[reciprocity]

I read that Morena is some sort of anarcho-communist party. Is that true or a bunch of nonsense. I forgot what the proper ideology was called.

[ag]

Why is PT with PAN. That seems unusual to me.

Happens sometimes. They are very close to the viability threshold (3%) in most elections now. If they dip below it in Puebla, they will not be getting any resources for the next campaign in the state. Given how badly PRD alone is polling here, a coalition with it would not give them much of a chance to clear the threshold. To go with Morena they would have to completely abandon their independence - and even then it is not clear why anybody would vote for them, rather than straight for Morena. This way, a leftist trying to keep PRI out could justify voting for the PANista candidate by saying that, at least, he is maintaining PT alive in the state. Good for both parties.

[MaxQue]

I read that Morena is some sort of anarcho-communist party. Is that true or a bunch of nonsense. I forgot what the proper ideology was called.

Personality cult.

[ag]

I read that Morena is some sort of anarcho-communist party. Is that true or a bunch of nonsense. I forgot what the proper ideology was called.

Morena is a purely personalist party of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). It has been created for the explicit reason of avoiding the messiness of multiple "currents" of the PRD, because of which AMLO had to spend time and effort in each election getting the nomination. This way he has automatic ballot access and financing for his campaigns independent of anybody else. As AMLO is not a very prolific author, there is still no formal ideology of Lopezobradorism codified (but, I trust, this is only a matter of time).

Pretty much the only (semi-)independent grouping within the party is the Zacatecas machine of the Monreal brothers. Ricardo, the eldest (? not sure if he is, but he is the most prominent for sure) is the former Zacatecas governor, who is currently the mayor of the central borough of Mexico City. Unlike pretty much everybody else in the party other than AMLO, Monreals are a real political force on their own. For the moment they are willing to be fully subservient to AMLO, in the hopes of Ricardo inheriting the leadership at some point.

Everybody else in the party are either have beens, who are friendly to AMLO and willing to go along with him, or outright groupies of the Leader who would willingly do whatever he orders.  It is useless to talk of their ideology: to the extent that there is any, it is a personality cult.

[ag]

I read that Morena is some sort of anarcho-communist party. Is that true or a bunch of nonsense. I forgot what the proper ideology was called.

Personality cult.

You used the same two words with which I finished a somewhat longer dissertation on the issue at the same moment. No better way of describing it, of course.

[jaichind]

I read that Morena is some sort of anarcho-communist party. Is that true or a bunch of nonsense. I forgot what the proper ideology was called.

Personality cult.

You used the same two words with which I finished a somewhat longer dissertation on the issue at the same moment. No better way of describing it, of course.

At a tactical level given the bad blood between AMLO and PAN back in 2006 should we not view PRD as the Anti-PRI Left Party and MORENA as the anti-PAN Left party?  Meaning if you are Leftist and want to oppose PRI at all costs then vote PRD, if you are Leftist and want to oppose neo-liberalism clericalism under PAN even if it means helping PRI along the way then vote MORENA.

[reciprocity]

Personality cult.

Morena is a purely personalist party of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). It has been created for the explicit reason of avoiding the messiness of multiple "currents" of the PRD, because of which AMLO had to spend time and effort in each election getting the nomination. This way he has automatic ballot access and financing for his campaigns independent of anybody else. As AMLO is not a very prolific author, there is still no formal ideology of Lopezobradorism codified (but, I trust, this is only a matter of time).

Pretty much the only (semi-)independent grouping within the party is the Zacatecas machine of the Monreal brothers. Ricardo, the eldest (? not sure if he is, but he is the most prominent for sure) is the former Zacatecas governor, who is currently the mayor of the central borough of Mexico City. Unlike pretty much everybody else in the party other than AMLO, Monreals are a real political force on their own. For the moment they are willing to be fully subservient to AMLO, in the hopes of Ricardo inheriting the leadership at some point.

Everybody else in the party are either have beens, who are friendly to AMLO and willing to go along with him, or outright groupies of the Leader who would willingly do whatever he orders.  It is useless to talk of their ideology: to the extent that there is any, it is a personality cult.

LOL Thanks. So AMLO called for austerity during his 2012 run for president and he was a member of the PRD - the ''left, left'' party (which also coalitions with the right but whatever)? Mexican politics is interesting to say the least.