Mexican state elections 2016

[jaichind]

It is quite telling that in this round of elections MORENA has zero allies even though in many states MORENA seem to have a significant vote base.  It seems to imply that AMLO is a my-way-or-the-highway type of leader and many smaller parties figure given the humiliating political cost of going with MORENA the  ROI is not worth it.

[ag]

I read that Morena is some sort of anarcho-communist party. Is that true or a bunch of nonsense. I forgot what the proper ideology was called.

Personality cult.

You used the same two words with which I finished a somewhat longer dissertation on the issue at the same moment. No better way of describing it, of course.

At a tactical level given the bad blood between AMLO and PAN back in 2006 should we not view PRD as the Anti-PRI Left Party and MORENA as the anti-PAN Left party?  Meaning if you are Leftist and want to oppose PRI at all costs then vote PRD, if you are Leftist and want to oppose neo-liberalism clericalism under PAN even if it means helping PRI along the way then vote MORENA.

Well, in a very peculiar way, this could be one way of putting it, but with qualifications. AMLO was a proper PRIista goon in his youth, and, when mayor of Mexico City, he managed to reconstitute the former PRIista machine in the city under the PRD banner. It is telling that he has attracted a whole bunch of old PRIista heavyweights, who would otherwise have long been out of politics, but in this way manage to remain relevant as "elder statesmen". For instance, among his close allies is Sen. Manuel Bartlett: the very same guy who, as the Secretary of Interior in 1988 literally stole the presidential election from Cardenas and gave it to Salinas. Bartlett is 80, which means he is no threat to AMLO, and the two find each other surprisingly congenial.

AMLO, of course, rages about "PRIAN" and claims to despise the two parties equally. However, what he dislikes about the PRI is the "neoliberal transformation" that happened in that party during the 1980s and 1990s. His ideal is the traditional PRIista state: but without restrictions on the Leader authority imposed by the coalition politics that had always been essential in the old party.  De facto he has been very much useful to PRI: I am pretty certain Peña Nieto would not have been elected if AMLO yielded the nomination to, say, Ebrard. This time as well he will help PRI get some governorships that party would not have gotten otherwise. The only problem is, it is far from clear that he necessarily helps only the old-style "leftish" PRIista dinosaurs like himself: these would, probably, have been able to get the leftish vote on their own, so some "technocratish/neoliberalihsh" PRIista whippersnappers might benefit as well.

[ag]

It is quite telling that in this round of elections MORENA has zero allies even though in many states MORENA seem to have a significant vote base.  It seems to imply that AMLO is a my-way-or-the-highway type of leader and many smaller parties figure given the humiliating political cost of going with MORENA the  ROI is not worth it.

Exactly. In the past he had to pay the dues to Anaya of PT and Delgado of MC in order to ensure that their ballot lines go to him. Having gotten those, he would blackmail PRD into nominating himself: threatening otherwise to split the leftist vote. He also needed to do similar politicking to ensure his followers would get electable slots for other offices. The point of creating Morena was to stop dealing with PT, MC - or, for that matter, with "disloyal" currents in PRD (he still retains control of a faction in PRD though, just in case - pretty funny story there as well). Now that he got his own ballot access, AMLO does not want to give anybody else even a crumb: you either join him blindly, or you go. Monreals are the only active allies with their own game to play: but they are willing to be loyal and to wait.

[ag]

Personality cult.

Morena is a purely personalist party of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). It has been created for the explicit reason of avoiding the messiness of multiple "currents" of the PRD, because of which AMLO had to spend time and effort in each election getting the nomination. This way he has automatic ballot access and financing for his campaigns independent of anybody else. As AMLO is not a very prolific author, there is still no formal ideology of Lopezobradorism codified (but, I trust, this is only a matter of time).

Pretty much the only (semi-)independent grouping within the party is the Zacatecas machine of the Monreal brothers. Ricardo, the eldest (? not sure if he is, but he is the most prominent for sure) is the former Zacatecas governor, who is currently the mayor of the central borough of Mexico City. Unlike pretty much everybody else in the party other than AMLO, Monreals are a real political force on their own. For the moment they are willing to be fully subservient to AMLO, in the hopes of Ricardo inheriting the leadership at some point.

Everybody else in the party are either have beens, who are friendly to AMLO and willing to go along with him, or outright groupies of the Leader who would willingly do whatever he orders.  It is useless to talk of their ideology: to the extent that there is any, it is a personality cult.

LOL Thanks. So AMLO called for austerity during his 2012 run for president and he was a member of the PRD - the ''left, left'' party (which also coalitions with the right but whatever)? Mexican politics is interesting to say the least.

Well, keep in mind that in much of Latin America the normal political spectrum ranges from national socialism on the left to christian socialism on the right. What passes for a left wing down here would, probably, be viewed as quite rightwing in Europe. Ideologically, AMLO would be most similar to, say, Berlusconi, but he is more conservative on both economics and, especially, social/religious issues. He is somewhat of a puritan personally, and I have a feeling he is, actually, pretty much a traditionalist Catholic in private. He has recently had serious tensions with the LGBT activists that tried to join him: he barely tolerates them in public, in order to avoid disenchanting the more "leftish-bohemian" part of his following, but certain things have slipped out. His main claim to being a "leftwinger is his professed concern about the poor. But when he was mayor, this concern, primarily, manifested itself in distributing cash in poor neighbourhoods for explicitly political purposes: they would, literally, take attendance whenever he would call people out for a demonstration of support. The "rightwing" national government of the time was, actually, far more committed, creative and efficient in its anti-poverty programs.  

[ag]

Wait.  If I am reading this right, in Zacatecas PRD-PAN will nominate a PRI turncoat who is also the brother of the current PRI governor ??!!  Wow.

http://aristeguinoticias.com/1802/mexico/un-ex-priista-designado-como-candidato-del-prd-en-zacatecas/

brother-in-law

It looks like PRD-PAN nominated some other guy instead.  Anyway, it seems to be working out disastrously for PRD.    MORENA has jumped to second place behind PRI and ahead of PRD-PAN.



Which has
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        38
MORENA                    32
PRD-PAN                    19

It is not because PRD made a wrong choice. It is because we are dealing with the Monreal machine on the Morena side. Monrealistas, as I mentioned elsewhere, are the only real allies of AMLO that have their own following. The current Morena candidate is the brother of the former governor Ricardo Monreal, who is the undisputed leader of the faction. The Zacatecas strength of Morena is not an accident: it is very much home-grown.

[jaichind]

It looks like PRD-PAN nominated some other guy instead.  Anyway, it seems to be working out disastrously for PRD.    MORENA has jumped to second place behind PRI and ahead of PRD-PAN.



Which has
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        38
MORENA                    32
PRD-PAN                    19

It is not because PRD made a wrong choice. It is because we are dealing with the Monreal machine on the Morena side. Monrealistas, as I mentioned elsewhere, are the only real allies of AMLO that have their own following. The current Morena candidate is the brother of the former governor Ricardo Monreal, who is the undisputed leader of the faction. The Zacatecas strength of Morena is not an accident: it is very much home-grown.

Wow.  How interesting.  Thanks for that.  I should have noticed the name of the MORENA candidate.

[jaichind]

Veracruz poll.  If you strip out null votes it is

PRI-PVEM-PANAL          36
PAN-PRD                      29
MORENA                      25
PT                                 6

MORENA taking advantage of the PAN-PRD alliance to grow its vote base here which is nearly double what it got in 2015.

This split has a majority feeling that PRI will win.

[jaichind]

PRI way ahead in  Sinaloa

PRI-PVEM-PANAL         54
PAN                            24
MC-PAS                       15

It seems that MC has emerged as the Left party here over PRD and MORENA.

[jaichind]

Found this on-line which I think is from last year's elections.  Found it pretty funny



Especially the part where MORENA sees itself as Jesus

BTW, anyone has ideas on who those people in the picture are.  Namely how PRI see itself (is that Benito Juárez?), how PRI sees PAN (I assume it is some monarch some sort) and how PAN sees PAN (no idea who that guy is).

[ag]

Found this on-line which I think is from last year's elections.  Found it pretty funny



Especially the part where MORENA sees itself as Jesus

BTW, anyone has ideas on who those people in the picture are.  Namely how PRI see itself (is that Benito Juárez?), how PRI sees PAN (I assume it is some monarch some sort) and how PAN sees PAN (no idea who that guy is).

PRI sees itself as Benito Juarez

PRI sees PAN as Maximilian Habsburg: the French- and conservative-imposed emperor of Mexico.

PAN sees itself as Francisco Madero: the idealist anti-reelectionist leader, who started a movement that became the Revolution that overthrew Porfirio Diaz, became president himself and was, in turn, overthrown and martyred by perfidious military. It helps that PAN´s previous leader, Gustavo Madero, is his grand-nephew (?) (and spitting image).

The word "naco(s)" is an extremely rude term which rich Mexicans use to refer to regular ("uneducated", and, let's face it, not very white) people. Comes from "totonaco" (a major Native people).

The rest should be pretty clear:)

[jaichind]

PRI sees itself as Benito Juarez

PRI sees PAN as Maximilian Habsburg: the French- and conservative-imposed emperor of Mexico.

PAN sees itself as Francisco Madero: the idealist anti-reelectionist leader, who started a movement that became the Revolution that overthrew Porfirio Diaz, became president himself and was, in turn, overthrown and martyred by perfidious military. It helps that PAN´s previous leader, Gustavo Madero, is his grand-nephew (?) (and spitting image).

The word "naco(s)" is an extremely rude term which rich Mexicans use to refer to regular ("uneducated", and, let's face it, not very white) people. Comes from "totonaco" (a major Native people).

The rest should be pretty clear:)

Thanks for this. I should have guessed Maximilian.  If PRI is Juarez in its own eyes then it makes sense that the anti-PRI would be Maximilian.   I had no idea that PAN identified with Madero.  I always figured that PAN would identify with some leaders of the Cristeros.  It is interesting to know this.

[jaichind]

Another poll in Veracruz with PRI ahead.  They have

PRI-PVEM-PANAL          31.8
PAN-PRD                      26.7
MORENA                      23.8

Again, another poll for Veracruz that is showing surprising strength for MORENA.

Same poll with the breakdown by party within the PRI alliance partners as well as the PAN PRD breakdown.  Back in 2012 PRD-PT-MC got 23% of the vote in Veracruz.  Looking at this breakdown it is clear that the Left is expanding its base in Veracruz and it is mostly MORENA that is doing the growing and PRD doing the shrinking.

[jaichind]

Another poll for Tlaxcala with a three way fight but PRI falling to third even though PRI is the incumbent party. 

PRD                              33
PAN                              29
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PS     24
MORENA                         6

Of course Tlaxcala has had changes in government every election since 1998 when PRD won, followed by 2004 when PAN won and then in 2010 when PRI won.  Looks like it will be PRD's turn again this time.

[jaichind]

Oaxaca poll has PRI ahead of PRD-PAN mostly because MORENA and PT are splitting the anti PRI vote it seems.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL          41
PRD-PAN                      34
PT                                11
MORENA                      10

I guess the race could tighten toward the end as tactical voting by PT and MORENA voters might still give PRD-PAN the edge.

[jaichind]

I guess a summery of the governor races are

Aguascalientes (current PRI, PRI vs PAN neck-to-neck with weak PRD presence)  
Chihuahua  (current PRI, PRI vs PAN battleground with PRI advantage with weak PRD presence)  
Durango (current PRI won against PAN-PRD last time, PRI ahead of same alliance led by PAN)
Hidalgo (current PRI won against PAN-PRD last time, the alliance is off and PRI is ahead)
Oaxaca (current MC backed by PAN-PRD which won beat PRI, PRI slightly ahead if PRD led PRD-PAN )
Puebla (current PAN backed by PRD, PAN-PRD alliance is off but PAN with PANAL-PT ahead anyway )
Quintana Roo (current PRI, PRD-PAN in alliance this time, not clear who is ahead but most likely PRI)
Sinaloa (current PAN backed by PRD, alliance is off and PRI will win over PAN with weak PRD presence)
Tamaulipas (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with PRI ahead and weak PRD presence)
Tlaxcala  (current PRI,  three way battle between PRI PAN PRD with PRD ahead)
Veracruz  (current PRI, three way fight between PRI, PAN-PRD alliance, MORENA with PRI ahead)
Zacatecas  (current PRI, three way fight bewteen PRI, PAN-PRD alliance, MORENA with PRI ahead)

Now it seems if things break for PRI it could sweep all the governor races with the exception of Puebla for PAN and Tlaxcala for PRI.  Things not so clear in Oaxaca where the polls seems to be all over the place but it seems PRI is ahead.  PRI did a good job this year of getting PANAL on board in most races.  PRD seems to be doing a poor job in keeping its vote from defecting to MORENA.  This combination seems to be giving PRI a very strong position going into June.  This is surprising given how unpopular the current PRI regime but PRI seems to be pulling it off.

[jaichind]

Hidalgo poll with PRI way ahead.  PRI beat back PAN-PRD back in 2010.  With PAN and PRD running separately there is no chance anyway to stop PRI. 

PRI-PVEM-PANAL           55
PAN                              20
PRD                              15
MORENA                         6

[jaichind]

In Chihuahua we have a possible El Bronco emerging.  It seems to be

PRI-PVEM-PANAL               28.3
PAN                                   21.9
Independent                      20.9
MORENA                              7.0
PRD                                     3.2
 
I could not find out much about the independent José Luis Barraza other than he was an executive at an airline company and a leader of the Mexican version of Chamber of Commerce and seems to have some bad blood between him and AMLO stemming from the 2006 elections.  If he surges then perhaps like with El Bronco PAN vote might drift toward him and then he is able to defeat PRI.

[ag]

I guess a summery of the governor races are

Aguascalientes (current PRI, PRI vs PAN neck-to-neck with weak PRD presence)  
Chihuahua  (current PRI, PRI vs PAN battleground with PRI advantage with weak PRD presence)  
Durango (current PRI won against PAN-PRD last time, PRI ahead of same alliance led by PAN)
Hidalgo (current PRI won against PAN-PRD last time, the alliance is off and PRI is ahead)
Oaxaca (current MC backed by PAN-PRD which won beat PRI, PRI slightly ahead if PRD led PRD-PAN )
Puebla (current PAN backed by PRD, PAN-PRD alliance is off but PAN with PANAL-PT ahead anyway )
Quintana Roo (current PRI, PRD-PAN in alliance this time, not clear who is ahead but most likely PRI)
Sinaloa (current PAN backed by PRD, alliance is off and PRI will win over PAN with weak PRD presence)
Tamaulipas (current PRI, most likely PRI vs PAN battleground with PRI ahead and weak PRD presence)
Tlaxcala  (current PRI,  three way battle between PRI PAN PRD with PRD ahead)
Veracruz  (current PRI, three way fight between PRI, PAN-PRD alliance, MORENA with PRI ahead)
Zacatecas  (current PRI, three way fight bewteen PRI, PAN-PRD alliance, MORENA with PRI ahead)

Now it seems if things break for PRI it could sweep all the governor races with the exception of Puebla for PAN and Tlaxcala for PRI.  Things not so clear in Oaxaca where the polls seems to be all over the place but it seems PRI is ahead.  PRI did a good job this year of getting PANAL on board in most races.  PRD seems to be doing a poor job in keeping its vote from defecting to MORENA.  This combination seems to be giving PRI a very strong position going into June.  This is surprising given how unpopular the current PRI regime but PRI seems to be pulling it off.

Manlio Fabio is a genius. He is scary. but he will be president in 2018.

[jaichind]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

Based on what I am reading the way this election will work is a party list system where seats will be assigned by PR for all 60 seats.  Is that right ?

[ag]

BTW, we should be adding the elections to the Constituent Convention of the new state of Mexico City (the 32nd state of Mexico). The constitutional amendment abolishing DF and instituting the state has just been ratified and should be promulgated any moment now (if it has not happened already). It calls for a Constituent Convention of 100 members, of which 60 will be directly elected sometime this summer.

Based on what I am reading the way this election will work is a party list system where seats will be assigned by PR for all 60 seats.  Is that right ?

Yep. Another 40 seats are appointed, though.

[jaichind]

BTW, I think the PRI candidate for Oaxaca is the son of the PRI governor of Oaxaca in 1998-2004.  Murat senior I think was involved in a plot where he alleged faked his own assassination  attempt  in an attempt to help the PRI candidate in the 2004 elections  against a PRD-PAN alliance which PRI managed to win.

[ag]

I had no idea that PAN identified with Madero.  I always figured that PAN would identify with some leaders of the Cristeros.  It is interesting to know this.

PAN is not (and has never been) a Cristero extension.  Among its founders were people like Manuel Gomez Marin: the party at its inception was as liberal, as it was Catholic. In any case, there were no real Cristero thinkers or leaders to emulate: their leader was Jesus Christ himself, no living humans could rival him It is true that, once the repression started, Catholics were the ones more capable of resisting it, since they believed resistance was God's will, so the party did increasingly take a Catholic tinge. But the liberal wing was always there, and liberals are much more intellectually prominent. The hardcore Catholicism is concentrated in the Bajio wing of the party, where El Yunque types are prominent. But the only one of them to have made a major mark on national politics in recent decades is the late Carlos Abascal, a labor/interior secretary under Fox.

Within Mexico City PAN hardcore Catholicism is viewed with something akin to embarrassment. El Yunque sinarquitas are the provincial relatives, who may be fine to socialise with when you visit the grandma for Christmas, but who are very awkward to show to your friends when they come to the city. Just today a local newspaper has an interview with the local PANista leader, who is doing his best to wiggle out of the party positions on abortion and gay marriage, basically saying that these are the settled law in the City and that the new Mexico City constitution is a wrong place to reargue the issues (in contrast, the local PRI leadership is making reversing both a prominent plank in its campaign).

[jaichind]

Manlio Fabio is a genius. He is scary. but he will be president in 2018.

How will PRI select its candidate in 2018 now that there is an incumbent PRI President ?  It seems Manlio Fabio's name recognition is nowhere as high as Osorio Chong.   Although Osorio Chong's negatives are pretty high too, right up there with AMLO.

[ag]

Manlio Fabio is a genius. He is scary. but he will be president in 2018.

How will PRI select its candidate in 2018 now that there is an incumbent PRI President ?  It seems Manlio Fabio's name recognition is nowhere as high as Osorio Chong.   Although Osorio Chong's negatives are pretty high too, right up there with AMLO.

Good question. But I doubt that Peña Nieto has enough clout to do the finger touching by himself.

Manlio Fabio controls the party machine, and he has not established this control to help somebody else. Osorio Chong is better known, of course, but his own Hidalgo base is, probably, insufficient. Eruviel Avila has stronger base in that he controls the largest state, and he wrestled that from Peña Nieto's Atlacomulco group. But there are certain rumors about the gentleman (probably true) that make him, should we say, highly blackmailable. I doubt he wants the sort of public exposure that is inevitable if he runs. Videgaray would, probably, be the one whom Peña would like to touch, but his corruption is too public and his machine control is simply not there. Meade (the former foreign minister), whom they do not even profile in your picture, wants it, but he has no chance.

Manlio Fabio does not want to be known to the public too early. He is not very likable (for very good reasons), and he knows it. But he is a genius.

[jaichind]

Latest poll from Mitofsky shows PAN slightly ahead in Tamaulipas where PRI has never lost before.



PAN      42.9
PRI       39.0