How many votes did Bush's Social Security gaffe cost him?
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  2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  How many votes did Bush's Social Security gaffe cost him?
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Author Topic: How many votes did Bush's Social Security gaffe cost him?  (Read 2317 times)
Californiadreaming
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« on: January 18, 2016, 12:20:20 PM »

On November 2, 2000, Republican Presidential candidate George W. Bush made a gaffe where he implied that Social Security isn't a federal program. Put into context, it is pretty clear that Bush simply misspoke about this topic:

[Link removed out of necessity. Sad]

And here is the relevant gaffe/quote:

"This frightens some in Washington because they want the federal government controlling the Social Security, like it's some kind of federal program. We understand differently though. You see, it's your money, not the government's money. You ought to be allowed to invest it the way you see fit."

Anyway, Al Gore appears to have taken this Bush gaffe/quote out of context and used it to make a new ad which he aired in both Pennsylvania and Florida right before the 2000 election:

[Link removed out of necessity. Sad]

"Seizing a chance to sow doubts about Gov. George W. Bush's ability to be president, Vice President Al Gore today ridiculed him for suggesting on Thursday that Social Security was not a federal program, and the Gore campaign rushed out a television commercial highlighting the gaffe.

...

The Gore campaign prepared a television commercial on the comment to begin airing Saturday in Pennsylvania and Florida, the two states with the largest numbers of retirees who count on Social Security -- voters whom Mr. Gore must mobilize to the polls on Tuesday to win those states."

In addition to this, Gore also made use of this Bush quote/gaffe (once again, out of context) on the campaign trail in the final days of the 2000 campaign:

"''Do you want to entrust the Oval Office to somebody who doesn't even know that Social Security is a federal program?'' Mr. Gore asked a rally of students in Iowa this afternoon."

Also, while I unfortunately couldn't find a video of this Gore television commercial, I did manage to find a transcript of the content of this Gore television commercial:

[Link removed out of necessity. Sad]

Anyway, here is my question to all of you--How many votes do you think that this Social Security gaffe and Gore's subsequent exploitation of this gaffe ended up costing Bush in Florida in 2000? Also, how many votes do you think that this Social Security gaffe and Gore's subsequent exploitation of this gaffe ended up costing Bush in the rest of the country (as in, in U.S. states other than Florida) in 2000? Finally, do you think that this gaffe actually ended up costing Bush any states (such as New Mexico, which Gore only won by 363 votes)?

Any thoughts on this?

COMMENT: I unfortunately had to remove my relevant links here due to the fact that I apparently cannot post links in my posts until I will have 20 posts. That said, though, you can do a Google search to find the necessary information for this. Smiley
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2016, 12:54:07 PM »

Also, for the record, I would like to point out that even an additional several hundred votes in Florida could have helped Bush in regards to perceptions of the legitimacy of his first term. (Of course, the fact that many Americans viewed Bush's first term as being illegitimate certainly didn't prevent Bush from pushing through a lot of his agenda during his first term, so ...)
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2016, 10:46:07 AM »

I'd say it cost Bush about 262,787 votes.... just kidding. :-)
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2016, 12:44:08 AM »

I'd say it cost Bush about 262,787 votes.... just kidding. :-)
Is that for the entire U.S.?

Also, what about only in Florida?
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2016, 05:00:42 PM »

I'd say it cost Bush about 262,787 votes.... just kidding. :-)
Is that for the entire U.S.?

Also, what about only in Florida?
Yes, 262,787 is in the entire US and is a made-up number. I'd assume the gaffe damaged him in fairly equal proportions in all states, perhaps less in AK, HI and UT where a lower proportion of SocSec recipients live.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2016, 01:09:05 AM »

I'd say it cost Bush about 262,787 votes.... just kidding. :-)
Is that for the entire U.S.?

Also, what about only in Florida?
Yes, 262,787 is in the entire US and is a made-up number. I'd assume the gaffe damaged him in fairly equal proportions in all states, perhaps less in AK, HI and UT where a lower proportion of SocSec recipients live.
Al Gore's campaign only ran an ad which emphasized this Bush gaffe in Florida and Pennsylvania, though.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2016, 09:06:54 PM »

The media covered it, too, considering how well the rest of Atlas remembers it.

I'd say that in Florida alone another 10-20,000 old voters might have voted for Bush, most of whom probably didn't vote.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 02:12:55 AM »

The media covered it, too, considering how well the rest of Atlas remembers it.

I'd say that in Florida alone another 10-20,000 old voters might have voted for Bush, most of whom probably didn't vote.
That many voters? Indeed, didn't Bush already have a reputation for his Bushisms before he made that Social Security gaffe?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2016, 11:52:54 PM »

It's that many voters because old people are a big demographic in Florida because of retirement. Don't forget Social Security mostly affects them.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2016, 06:09:32 PM »

It's that many voters because old people are a big demographic in Florida because of retirement. Don't forget Social Security mostly affects them.
Yes, but it's just one Bush gaffe and Bush already had a history of making gaffes by this point in time.
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