NY-19

[Torie]

Phil used to have his PA-13 thread, and I am going to start my NY-19 thread.

Here's my first post, about Will Yandik, who threw his hat in the ring to run in the Democratic primary after the County Executive of Ulster County unexpectedly bowed out in December. I am copying and pasting this from my post of the Demographics Board, which has my maps.

This morning I went to Will Yandik's event in Hillsdale (a town in Columbia County right next to the Massachusetts border). About 100 people showed up. Will Yandik loved my maps, and instantly understood the political implications. His eyes just glistened with delight in fact. He loves maps as much as we do. He even knew that Columbia County was neither part of the Albany UCC area, nor the NYC UCC area, and that Dutchess was part of the latter, and the implications of that vis a vis map drawing give the new New York law. Fancy that?

His speech was brilliant, well crafted, district specific, and politically smart - small farms, home health care for a population losing area filled with seniors (10 years older than the average for the nation), internet broad band, bipartisan, working with Republicans on issues where it was realistic to get stuff passed, and so forth. He was happy to see me. I suggested on the broad band issue, that he get in touch with some incumbent Congressmen for both parties, to get an idea of what the obstacles are, and why this has not been pushed by rural Pub Congresspersons, so he can get more specific, and show by his actions, that he can actually make his approach work. Will thought that a really good suggestion, and said he would follow up on it. It's a big issue, because the economics of the region, and higher paying jobs, are all about using the internet, and working from home, or a small business. And the service sucks, and is driving folks crazy. My cousin is really frustrated, and has found all three currently available options unsatisfactory.

He's smart as a whip, charming, high energy, disciplined, with a great sense of humor and very articulate. I think he will be the next Congressman from the district, and the DCCC understands he's their best shot to win the district, and are pushing for him. I think the odds are pretty good he will be the next Congressman from the district. It will be kind of neat if he does, that I will know my Congressional representative personally. And oh, I pledged some money for him.

I also chatted with the former Hudson Common Council President about the weighted voting issue in Hudson, and laid out my strategy, and what needs to be done when, to whom. He thought it a good approach.

So anyway, mark this district down as tilt to lean Democrat for 2016. You heard it here first.  

[Vosem]

What are your thoughts on the Faso vs. Heaney primary? Is this an area where the NYGOP establishment (which I imagine to be pulling very hard for Faso) has a great deal of power, or could Heaney end up getting the nomination?

Also, do you think the general election will correlate with the presidential election or not? I think the top Republican candidates, Trump and Cruz, are both very likely to lose this district to Hillary, but it's traditionally very Republican downballot and I can imagine either top Republican successfully distancing themselves from the presidential candidate and winning. I don't think this Yandik fellow is particularly well-known, at least at present.

[Torie]

What are your thoughts on the Faso vs. Heaney primary? Is this an area where the NYGOP establishment (which I imagine to be pulling very hard for Faso) has a great deal of power, or could Heaney end up getting the nomination?

Also, do you think the general election will correlate with the presidential election or not? I think the top Republican candidates, Trump and Cruz, are both very likely to lose this district to Hillary, but it's traditionally very Republican downballot and I can imagine either top Republican successfully distancing themselves from the presidential candidate and winning. I don't think this Yandik fellow is particularly well-known, at least at present.

Faso is a competent candidate, and I expect him to win the Pub primary, unless Heaney, besides his money, has charisma, and is smart and articulate. I tend to doubt that. Pub primaries tend to be a machine dominated affair, absent unusual dynamics. Faso is their choice.

Cruz would be a disaster in the district, and hurt Pubs down ballot. Trump is a wild card. The white gentry hates him, and some of that cohort are swing voters, but Trump may have pull with the white working class, and under the veneer of the white gentry, the district has an usually high percentage of white working class voters. So I don't know how that will play out. Trump may bring out enough white working class voters to help the Pub candidate. Yandik is very much a white gentry candidate - moderate but of that cohort. Yandik is not well known, but the DCCC is behind him, and as long as Teachout does not run in the primary (she would lose in the district in the General Election, and the DCCC knows that, and all the savvy Dems I personally know, know that), Yandik is well positioned to win the primary.

If he wins the primary (and the DCCC will help him raise money, and in 3 weeks, he has already raised 150K), he will get tons of money from the DCCC for the General Election. They don't have that many targets, and this seat will be in their top 5, I suspect. Yandik, like Gibson before him, is perfect for the district. Both have calm and analytical temperaments, centrist profiles, and were raised on a farm, and are farmers, with high IQ's and Ivy League educations (Yandik teachers biology part time at the local community college, and is the premier birder in Columbia County, and of course already knew of my birding brother before he met him). Yandik was valedictorian at Hudson High School, and went to Princeton on a scholarship. And more than Gibson, Yandik is super friendly with a good sense of humor. Gibson was a bit more reserved.

Before commenting further, I will have to meet Faso and assess his capabilities. I suspect he will be a respectable but not great candidate. We shall see. The other factor is that Democrats locally do much better in Presidential years, than non Presidential years. If Eldridge had run in a Presidential year, instead of getting 35% of the vote, he might have garnered maybe 42% as a very weak candidate against a super strong incumbent, is my guess.

[Torie]

Well Teachout decided to get into the Dem primary race, which means that she will probably be the Dem nominee (not sure that Will Yandik will even stay in the race, we shall see), and then lose in the General to Faso, who will probably win the Pub nomination, and is a competent candidate. So this seat I think should be put in the "lean Pub" column.

[Maxwell]

Didn't Faso lose a Governors race by 50 points?

[Vosem]

Didn't Faso lose a Governors race by 50 points?

Yeah, but that wasn't a case of him blowing it or anything; it was just a very Democratic atmosphere in a very elastic (and heavily-D neutrally) state. It doesn't reflect how he'll do in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well Teachout decided to get into the Dem primary race, which means that she will probably be the Dem nominee (not sure that Will Yandik will even stay in the race, we shall see), and then lose in the General to Faso, who will probably win the Pub nomination, and is a competent candidate. So this seat I think should be put in the "lean Pub" column.

God Inks it

[Maxwell]

RIP New York Democratic party

[Miles]

I still detest Teachout for following me on Twitter, then unfollowing me for no apparent reason.

[/]

Disgusting.

Does she even think she has a chance?

[henster]

Just throwing away a perfectly good House seat. When is the next time this seat will be open and in Presidential year?

[xavier110]

Teachout is fabulous. Good luck to her.

[JMT]

Endorsed (Teachout)

[smoltchanov]

Idiocy.

[Torie]

Hot off the presses! Will Yandik is not dropping out, and his website has gone live. So it's game on! It will be interesting how Yandik, with his carefully cultivated moderate profile, copes with his "true progressive," politically correct opponent Teachout. Does he say I'm just as progressive, or some of those ideas are dead ends and will never pass (the equal pay stuff, the carbon tax, militant green agenda, and so forth), or what?  Even if he pulls a rabbit out of the hat, and beats her in the primary, he may end up saying some stuff needed to win the primary that can be recycled in the General Election against him. So he has a challenge, but he's an incredibly bright and supple guy, so perhaps he will prove up to the challenge. Needless to say I will be supporting him in the primary, and the General Election if he wins the primary. I just think the world of him.

[Kingpoleon]

Teachout is supposed to be primarying De Blasio and Cuomo, not good guys!

[Torie]

Does Teachout really live in the district, that is the question.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who cares what district she lives in? That's a terrible issue to care about. Teachout is the exact same out of touch liberal no matter what district she lives in.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Teachout is supposed to be primarying De Blasio and Cuomo, not good guys!

It's a Republican imcumbent, so she isn't primarying anyone. Anyways, it's Schumer who needs to be primaried this year. Chuck needs to be chucked.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Chuck needs to be chucked.

#BloombergforSenate2016

[Nyvin]

Teachout is being severely underestimated in this thread....she could easily win NY-19.

[smoltchanov]

Teachout is being severely underestimated in this thread....she could easily win NY-19.

Win? - may be (though i doubt it). Easily? Hell, no!

[Kingpoleon]

Endorsing Yandik. We need more young, white progressive centrists in New York.

[Torie]

Columbia County Democratic Committee endorses Will Yandik, frying Teachout over her district shopping, and evasive answers. It’s happening!   Well, OK, I know, even if it’s not the beginning of the end for Teachout, and maybe not even the end of the beginning, at least it’s the beginning of the beginning. First we had Sean Maloney, and perhaps now we will have Will Yandik. The Hudson Valley is going gay! Will's husband is super hot I might add (he's an airline steward I think). 

[smoltchanov]

Yandik seems to me more electable of two. Of  course - not because he is gay (and personally - sexual preferences mean nothing to me, i am "sexually blind")))), but i am reasonably sure that a lot of district residents hate district-hopping (and district-shopping too)))) And district is a swingy one - much better suited for pragmatic moderate or moderate liberal then to "bold progressive". Unfortunately it seems that all candidates on Republican side are more conservative then Gibson - may be not by too much, but - nevertheless....