Will Democrats take over the NYS Senate in 2016?

[Progressive]

I hope so

[Virginiá]

Voted no, but also:

I was actually looking for a thread that might explain why the NY Senate is Republican (or coalition) to begin with. How is it possible when virtually every other aspect of New York government (State House, US House Delegation, state offices, etc) is so overwhelmingly Democratic? Why can't they manage to take the State Senate?

And further, why did (or do) those "Independent Democrats" keep siding with Republicans? IIRC, One or more of them were from absurdly Democratic districts. It's almost like they are conning their voters by using the Democratic labels, then siding with people that don't represent those voters' values once elected.

Anyone?

[Sumner 1868]

Given that the only year it has been majority Democratic since 1964 is 2008, I would say no.

[windjammer]

Apparently, democrats  might win a special election that would give them the majority  of the senate seats.

Right now, there are 31 democrats and 31 republicans. With the lt governor breaking the tie, it should be normally under democratic control.

But because of the "independent democrats": the democrats arent going to control  the senate.

[user12345]

Primarying the "independent democrats" should be a top priority if they won't return to caucusing with the party lable that elected them.

[Suburbia]

No. The NYS Senate will stay Republican. Even if Hillary Clinton is on the Democratic ticket, the GOP will keep the NYS Senate.

[Bojack Horseman]

I don't get why those traitors (and the ones in Washington for that matter) haven't been primaried. While Republicans won a 25-24 majority in the Senate in 2014, before that, Democrats had a 25-24 majority, but two traitors caucused with the Republicans, giving them a 26-23 coalition.

[Crumpets]

I don't get why those traitors (and the ones in Washington for that matter) haven't been primaried. While Republicans won a 25-24 majority in the Senate in 2014, before that, Democrats had a 25-24 majority, but two traitors caucused with the Republicans, giving them a 26-23 coalition.

Well, in Washington, it's almost definitely because of our top-two primary system. Against an incumbent Democrat with bipartisan appeal (in an open primary) and a Republican, it's hard for a "true" progressive to break into the top two and make it to the November ballot.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think and hope so.

[Simfan34]

Voted no, but also:

I was actually looking for a thread that might explain why the NY Senate is Republican (or coalition) to begin with. How is it possible when virtually every other aspect of New York government (State House, US House Delegation, state offices, etc) is so overwhelmingly Democratic? Why can't they manage to take the State Senate?

And further, why did (or do) those "Independent Democrats" keep siding with Republicans? IIRC, One or more of them were from absurdly Democratic districts. It's almost like they are conning their voters by using the Democratic labels, then siding with people that don't represent those voters' values once elected.

Anyone?

Bipartisan gerrymandering.

As for the "independent Democrats" they were more or less some of the Senate's most corrupt members who were bribed by Skelos to cross the floor. This enjoyed Cuomo's tacit backing, as he did not want downstate Democrats (de Blasio and his ilk) to take control of the State Senate.

[Torie]

In 2022, it is almost certain the the Dems will, after redistricting, with gerrymandering under the new law highly constrained, even if Gibson is governor. It could certainly happen before then, and if it does, it is most likely this year.

[Virginiá]

In 2022, it is almost certain the the Dems will, after redistricting, with gerrymandering under the new law highly constrained, even if Gibson is governor. It could certainly happen before then, and if it does, it is most likely this year.

Is what Simfan suggested about Cuomo true? I've seen this mentioned several times before but for the life of me, I cannot understand why he would want that. If he is afraid of Democrats going wild or something, he can just veto what he thinks is harmful.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The theory is either a) Cuomo is obsessed with his higher ambitions and wants as many BIPARTISAN POINTS to feather his hat with or b) Cuomo ia playing chess and thinks it's better to have a party that he can have control over (i.e. if he turned against the Republicans, they would lose their highly-paid leadership positions so they don't want to upset the boat too much) than a bunch of unleashed NYC Democrats. Who knows what goes in the twisted noggin of Andrew Mark Cuomo?

[Progressive]

Voted no, but also:

I was actually looking for a thread that might explain why the NY Senate is Republican (or coalition) to begin with. How is it possible when virtually every other aspect of New York government (State House, US House Delegation, state offices, etc) is so overwhelmingly Democratic? Why can't they manage to take the State Senate?

And further, why did (or do) those "Independent Democrats" keep siding with Republicans? IIRC, One or more of them were from absurdly Democratic districts. It's almost like they are conning their voters by using the Democratic labels, then siding with people that don't represent those voters' values once elected.

Anyone?

Because 5 Democratic senators caucus with the Independent Democratic Caucus which gives a power-sharing scheme to the GOP leaders, the Senate seats are gerrymandered, and Democratic county organizations in swing areas like Nassau County are incredibly weak against a GOP patronage machine

[j4kor]

nope

[The Other Castro]

Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

[Progressive]

Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

Running against Tom Croci? Who is this person?

[The Other Castro]

Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

Running against Tom Croci? Who is this person?

Yeah against Croci. http://suffolkcountydems.com/candidate/john-devito

[Suburbia]

No. John Flanagan will remain Senate Leader.

[Kevinstat]

I don't get why those traitors (and the ones in Washington for that matter) haven't been primaried. While Republicans won a 25-24 majority in the Senate in 2014, before that, Democrats had a 25-24 majority, but two traitors caucused with the Republicans, giving them a 26-23 coalition.

Well, in Washington, it's almost definitely because of our top-two primary system. Against an incumbent Democrat with bipartisan appeal (in an open primary) and a Republican, it's hard for a "true" progressive to break into the top two and make it to the November ballot.

I agree that the top two primary may be a factor, but not so much for the reason you mentioned.

1/3 of the vote + 1 vote (or technically, 1/3 of the vote + at least 1/3 of a vote, in the same way that "50% plus 1" is really 50% plus (at least) 1/2) guarantees a candidate will make the top two in a top two primary.  If a loyal Democrat running against a Democrat caucusing with the Republicans and a Republican can't get 1/3 of the vote, even with turnout likely being lower and a bit more conservative, I doubt that person would be able to knock off an incumbent with bipartisan appeal if the Republican candidate was eliminated instead.

Such a candidate could perhaps win a traditional primary, but a more likely way I think the top-two primary could help an incumbent who is a member of one party but is willing to make deals with the other is if the other party doesn't get a candidate in the top two so all their voters will support the wheeling-dealing incumbent rather than the party loyalist challenger whose positions are even further from there's.  Those voters plus enough independent and "soft" voters for the incumbent's party might often be enough for the incumbent to win.

I don't follow Washington State politics very much though, so I might be totally wrong, but theoretically a "trans-caucusing" incumbent who wins reelection due to the top-two method should more likely win because they get most votes from the party they caucus in "runoff" (not really a runoff I know), not because the loyalist challenger who would win in a normal primary fails to make the top two.

[Nichlemn]

I don't get why those traitors (and the ones in Washington for that matter) haven't been primaried. While Republicans won a 25-24 majority in the Senate in 2014, before that, Democrats had a 25-24 majority, but two traitors caucused with the Republicans, giving them a 26-23 coalition.

Well, in Washington, it's almost definitely because of our top-two primary system. Against an incumbent Democrat with bipartisan appeal (in an open primary) and a Republican, it's hard for a "true" progressive to break into the top two and make it to the November ballot.

I agree that the top two primary may be a factor, but not so much for the reason you mentioned.

1/3 of the vote + 1 vote (or technically, 1/3 of the vote + at least 1/3 of a vote, in the same way that "50% plus 1" is really 50% plus (at least) 1/2) guarantees a candidate will make the top two in a top two primary.  If a loyal Democrat running against a Democrat caucusing with the Republicans and a Republican can't get 1/3 of the vote, even with turnout likely being lower and a bit more conservative, I doubt that person would be able to knock off an incumbent with bipartisan appeal if the Republican candidate was eliminated instead.

Such a candidate could perhaps win a traditional primary, but a more likely way I think the top-two primary could help an incumbent who is a member of one party but is willing to make deals with the other is if the other party doesn't get a candidate in the top two so all their voters will support the wheeling-dealing incumbent rather than the party loyalist challenger whose positions are even further from there's.  Those voters plus enough independent and "soft" voters for the incumbent's party might often be enough for the incumbent to win.

I don't follow Washington State politics very much though, so I might be totally wrong, but theoretically a "trans-caucusing" incumbent who wins reelection due to the top-two method should more likely win because they get most votes from the party they caucus in "runoff" (not really a runoff I know), not because the loyalist challenger who would win in a normal primary fails to make the top two.

Similarly to how Joe Lieberman won the general against Ned Lamont in 2006?

[windjammer]

Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

According to my Partisan Voting Index, this senate seat is D+3.
I guess Republicans are still doing well downballots in this part of the state, so hopefully your friend will win.

[Suburbia]

Long Island Democrat Todd Kaminsky won officially over Chris McGrath, a Republican lawyer in Nassau County. He ran on "protecting our suburbs" and stopping Mayor Bill de Blasio from "taking control of New York" by shifting school aid from Long Island to NYC. Maybe that's why McGrath lost. He focused too much on De Blasio, who right now is an albatross to NY Democrats.

http://www.chrismcgrathforsenate.com/chris_mcgrath_stands_with_senate_majority_calling_for_the_assembly_to_pass_anti_bds_legislation

http://www.wsj.com/articles/mayor-bill-de-blasio-is-target-in-race-on-long-island-1457402091

[The Other Castro]

Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

According to my Partisan Voting Index, this senate seat is D+3.
I guess Republicans are still doing well downballots in this part of the state, so hopefully your friend will win.

Oh nice, I thought there were only PVIs for statewide and congressional races.

[windjammer]

Sorry to bump this, but I have a good friend running in NY State Senate District 3, and was wondering if someone here knowledgeable about NY politics could tell me about his chances there.

According to my Partisan Voting Index, this senate seat is D+3.
I guess Republicans are still doing well downballots in this part of the state, so hopefully your friend will win.

Oh nice, I thought there were only PVIs for statewide and congressional races.

(For the record, I made them for state houses and state senates although I have to update the incumbency)

See my signature!