Who will win Iowa?- Less than 2 weeks to go

[DavidB.]

I used to think Cruz would win this, but now I think Trump is going to win.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

TRUMP wins by like 1-2%.

[yankeesfan]

I think Cruz still wins.  The evangelical candidates break late.

[RosettaStoned]

TRUMP wins by like 1-2%.

  ^^ This. 

[RFayette]

Really hoping it'll be Cruz, but unfortunately, Trump has a good shot here.

On the bright side (for Republicans and conservatives), sidelining Cruz early means a better chance for the establishment to pull Rubio or maybe Kasich over the line in the later primaries and make the general Lean R.  Unless you actually think Cruz would fare better in a general than Rubio or Kasich?  IMO Cruz has Reagan potential if he managed to win a GE, but he needs a new recession to get there.  Rubio or Kasich would be favored in the GE but either could have G.W. Bush problems with the base by 2018.

Agreed on all counts here, I'm just concerned that if Trump wins Iowa, he probably gets NH too and may become unstoppable.  I happen to think Cruz is the best shot to stop Trump, and he will do better than -10% but unlikely as electable as Kasich or Rubio...I tend to think that Cruz has a 25 to 40 percent shot of winning the GE, which is better than with Trump.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I used to think Cruz would win this, but now I think Trump is going to win.

This is about where I am now. If Trump wins Iowa, South Carolina is the non-Trump candidates' next hope.

If Cruz wins, well, it doesn't help him that much because he needs Iowa.

A win by anyone else would render all polling from this cycle as absolute garbage and would probably cause a push within the media for better polling techniques after being embarrassed in 2010 and 2014 and, to a lesser extent, 2012 as well.

[Stan]

In My opinion Cruz will win. Second place for Trump, then Rubio, Christie, Carson and Bush.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Voted Cruz based upon the last two Iowa Caucuses when the "social conservative" candidates won, and concur with the general consensus on here that the margin of victory is close ~1-2 percent, maybe even less than one percent.

..incidentally, who are the two people who voted Jim Gilmore? LOL

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

TRUMP

[The Other Castro]

Trump to Cruz is Sanders to Clinton in Iowa, in that the safer prediction seems to be Clinton/Cruz, but a reliance on surges and strong voter enthusiasm could lead to Sanders/Trump.

[MIKESOWELL]

I think that Trump wins by about 2-4 points in Iowa.

[JonathanSwift]

Recent polls show Iowans abandoning the sinking Cruz ship in favor of natural-born citizen Donald Trump, and this trend will no doubt be accelerated by the endorsement of Sarah Palin and the tacit endorsement of Governor Branstad. In twelve days, the good people of Iowa will set in inexorable motion the course of events by which we shall Make America Great Again.

[DS0816]

What revenge might Ted Cruz take on Terry Branstad?

[Vosem]

I hate to say this, but Trump has grabbed control of the narrative. Cruz has done pretty well in past debates, so he's not to be counted out and could still grab the initiative and victory at the next one -- the vote will be held in the immediate post-debate atmosphere, so if anyone wins the debate decisively he will massively overperform in the voting. I think, however, right now no one is likelier than Trump to prevail in Iowa, and I voted Trump (only in the poll, oc).

[Del Tachi]

Trump will edge-out Cruz, and will then go-on to win big in NH.