North Carolina

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I plan to make more of these threads.  Most people don't realize that the Tar Heel State hasn't come within 5 points of center despite it's closeness in the last 2 elections.  Despite it's closeness, with all things being equal, would it be within 5 points between the candidates?  It did trend left last time and was only a point in Romney's favor, but still this begs a question. With all things being equal is NC that close?

[Virginiá]

Well as per my usual ranting and data smorgasbords, I will present exit polling from 2004 - 2012 in North Carolina:

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCP00p1
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/#exit-polls

The general takeaway from this is that the younger generation, which is overwhelmingly Democratic, has been cannibalizing the electorate since the early 2000s. Observe:

2004: 18-29 year olds went 56% / 43% Kerry .... 30-44 year olds went 61% / 37% Bush. Clearly older generation is more conservative
-
2008: 18-29 year olds went 74% / 26% Obama ... 30-44 year olds went 52% / 48% Bush. As you can see, the heavily Democratic youngsters from 2004 are growing up and eating into the Republicans 30-44 age group dominance
-
2012: 18-29 year olds went 66% - 67% / 31% - 33% Obama, with 30-39 year olds going 58% / 41% Obama. Once again, all those Millennials are growing up, voting more and bringing their Democratic preferences with them

Rapid demographic changes in North Carolina shows a fast-growing minority population and a declining white voter share (particularly among working class whites, Republicans' bread and butter). Population migration into the research triangle and the shrinkage of the rural areas is also having a decent effect.

The reason I provided this is because the electorate in North Carolina is clearly undergoing a large shift. Young voters in North Carolina are far more Democratic than the national youth average, and even remained more Democratic than the 2008 average, in 2012, when Obama actually lost ground with Millennials. It doesn't look like this trend will change course in the near future (aside from a appreciable dip in support from the very youngest Millennials, which may be only because of the sour mood in 2014. Can't say right now), and that means things might actually be more favorable for Democrats in 2016 than 2012, all things considered.

However, at the very least, it's going to be close. 2008 / 2012 were not anomalies, they were the result of the growing influence of heavily Democratic Millennials and non-white voters. For the GOP to regain dominance in NC for presidential elections, they need to seriously cut into Democratic Millennial voter shares.

[Virginiá]

The black population is actually slowly dropping over time

The census data shows their numbers climbing, though (albeit not the fastest):

http://censusviewer.com/state/NC (2010)

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html (2014)

but NC couldn't even keep Hagan in office in 2014

Well, she did come very close. Tillis' winning margin was razor thin. Though, given the massive amount of money spent here, I'm not sure how sustainable it will be for Democrats if it takes that much money to simply come close. However, 2014 was a bad year for Democrats and I think trends still look favorable here at the state level within a decade or two, as you said.

I took it that he meant the presidential level, in which the electorate is fundamentally different and I believe it is more favorable for Democrats. I'm not really convinced Democrats will win North Carolina if 2016 is close (or close to close) nationally, but I think NC itself will remain a tossup with a small (R) advantage at least until 2020. Virtually all the long-term trends here are more favorable to Democrats. Either way, it's hardly a reliably Republican state anymore at the presidential level.

[DS0816]

North Carolina was 13 percentage points more Republican than how the nation voted in 2000.

North Carolina was 10 points more Republican than how the nation voted in 2004.

North Carolina, a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama, was 7 points more Republican than how the nation voted in 2008.

North Carolina, a Republican pickup for Mitt Romney, was 6 points more Republican than how the nation voted in 2012. (And Mitt Romney underperformed, and Barack Obama overperformed, the male vote relative the national results in 2012 North Carolina.)

What has happened is this: Since the map was realigned in the 1980s, and counter-realigned in the 1990s, the select Old Confederacy states which carried for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were between 10 and 15 percent of their overall electoral-vote score. Same with Republican Dwight Eisenhower, who won the same states Clinton did except Arkansas and, for a 1992 Clinton, Georgia. (The only state carried at least once by Obama but never by Eisenhower was North Carolina. And Eisenhower narrowly missed flipping North Carolina with his re-election in 1956.) So, Clinton had Arkansas and Louisiana, two states which voted for all presidential winners from 1972 to 2004. Obama did not. Obama ended up with North Carolina, from his first election, having replaced the combined electoral votes from Arkansas and Louisiana. The point is: For a winning Democrat carrying select states from the Old Confederacy, and for their electoral votes to be between 10 and 15 percent of their overall electoral-vote scores, there will be select states which carry around the national results. Arkansas and Louisiana are no longer reflective of that. North Carolina now is.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Millennials are growing but that's in most states. What are the odds that Obama was a good fit for NC? I would tend to think that based on tends, it will fall within a few points of the popular vote but slightly to the right at least one more time. if Sanders is the nominee it may not reflect actuality and go 58-41 GOP.  Other than that it should be closer.

[RRusso1982]

I believe that the last 2 elections were flukes in North Carolina.  In 2008, Obama didn't make a play for NC until after the financial collapse.  After that, the stars lined up perfectly for him.  The financial crisis hit Charlotte hard.  Black turnout was historic for Obama.  Even after all this, Obama barely eked the state out by half a point.  In 2012, Black turnout was again historically high, and Romney had all sorts of problems with evangelical voters because he was a Mormon.  Yet he still won the state by 2 points.  If in future elections ,black turnout drops back to where it was in 2000 and 2004, I think that NC is off the table as a swing state. 

[Virginiá]

I believe that the last 2 elections were flukes in North Carolina.  In 2008, Obama didn't make a play for NC until after the financial collapse.  After that, the stars lined up perfectly for him.  The financial crisis hit Charlotte hard.  Black turnout was historic for Obama.  Even after all this, Obama barely eked the state out by half a point.  In 2012, Black turnout was again historically high, and Romney had all sorts of problems with evangelical voters because he was a Mormon.  Yet he still won the state by 2 points.  If in future elections ,black turnout drops back to where it was in 2000 and 2004, I think that NC is off the table as a swing state. 

I wouldn't necessarily say that. Black voter turnout isn't going to collapse just because Obama isn't on the ticket - It was already trending up before Barry, he just accelerated it. Now I'm not saying it's a true toss-up - Definitely not, but it has become somewhat of the Republican's Pennsylvania, albeit closer on the margins.

[Smash255]

NC is a tilt Republican state, in a 50/50 election the GOP very likely wins it, however it won't take much of a PV margin for the Democrats to win it.  Probably around 4-5%, although its certainly possible it could wind up in the 2-3% more Republican than the nation range.

[RRusso1982]

I would say that for a Democrat to really have a chance at winning North Carolina, he/she would have to be winning the national popular vote by at least 5 points.  And if the state is truly in play, the Democrat likely doesn't need it. 

[Hydera]

I would say that for a Democrat to really have a chance at winning North Carolina, he/she would have to be winning the national popular vote by at least 5 points.  And if the state is truly in play, the Democrat likely doesn't need it. 

Also the black vote is definitely going to drop somewhat as Obama isnt on the ballot. which makes it harder to say that North Carolina could still be a swing state this year.

[RRusso1982]

I believe that a more generic Republican would have won North Carolina by more in 2012.  Romney had all sorts of problems with the evangelical voters because he was a Mormon.

[henster]

Hillary won't get to turnout she needs with millennials and blacks in order to make NC competitive.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hillary won't get to turnout she needs with millennials and blacks in order to make NC competitive.

Pretty much, but there are a lot of old NC Democrats (mainly dixiecrats) who refused to vote for Obama because he's a black, so she might pick those up and the lack of youngs could cancel all of it out. I don't know.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I believe that the last 2 elections were flukes in North Carolina.  In 2008, Obama didn't make a play for NC until after the financial collapse.  After that, the stars lined up perfectly for him.  The financial crisis hit Charlotte hard.  Black turnout was historic for Obama.  Even after all this, Obama barely eked the state out by half a point.  In 2012, Black turnout was again historically high, and Romney had all sorts of problems with evangelical voters because he was a Mormon.  Yet he still won the state by 2 points.  If in future elections ,black turnout drops back to where it was in 2000 and 2004, I think that NC is off the table as a swing state. 

Romney turned out more Evengelicals than Bush 2004 did (26% of the Electorate as opposed to 23%) and both got the same 78% among that group.

[Camaro33]

I believe many southeastern states with high black populations will trend to the right without Obama on the ticket. NC will still vote substantially left vs. 2004, but not at its 2012 level. This is even with the demographic trends and aging/dying out conservatives whites. Obama was a popular democrat with the base and popular with blacks in voting and turnout unlike any other Democrat. Things should vote somewhere between 2004 and 2012 for the very racially polarized southeastern states, closer to 2012 levels, but still trend right without Obama on the ticket. I expect Virginia because of these reasons to be a tossup, not North Carolina.

[SingingAnalyst]

I believe NC will become more like the national average as conservative rural whites die off and are replaced with suburban educated professionals.

[TarHeelDem]

NC has been trending leftward for awhile now. It's so great witnessing it firsthand. Looking forward to the conservative meltdown when it goes blue in November.