To Anyone who thinks Hillary and Trump are inevitable
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  To Anyone who thinks Hillary and Trump are inevitable
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Author Topic: To Anyone who thinks Hillary and Trump are inevitable  (Read 993 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: January 20, 2016, 11:47:41 PM »

National RCP Average, Dec. 20, 2011 (As always, I scale a month back to account for the primaries starting a month later this time) :

Gingrich 27.6%
Romney 24.6%
Paul 12.4%
Perry 6.6%
Bachmann 6.4%
Santorum 3.8%
Huntsman 2.0%

That's right, this late into the cycle, Gingrich was still leading in the national polls. He went on to win only two states in the primaries. Meanwhile, the eventual Runner-Up for the nomination was lagging in sixth place, ahead of only RINO Jon Huntsman.

On the Democratic Side, from Dec. 20, 2007 (Obama was effectively unopposed in 2012):

Clinton 42.6%
Obama 25.5%
Edwards ~13%
Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel under 5%

(Exact Numbers not available for low-tier candidates)

So, yeah, at this point, Clinton had a nearly 20 point lead over Obama nationally, roughly equivalent to her lead over Sanders right now.

So, sorry guys, but Hillary and Trump are not inevitable.


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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2016, 11:50:43 PM »

Gingrich hasn't held a 20+ point lead over the rest of the field and been pretty much impenetrable to every attack laid on him. Nice try tho.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2016, 11:54:18 PM »

Trump is the Romney of the cycle, he has the stable support. Cruz is the Gingrich, just another flavor of the month.

Also, Hillary is inevitable unless someone can explain how Bernie overcomes his problems with minorities.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2016, 11:57:59 PM »

Trump is the Romney of the cycle, he has the stable support. Cruz is the Gingrich, just another flavor of the month.

Also, Hillary is inevitable unless someone can explain how Bernie overcomes his problems with minorities.

If Iowa and New Hampshire go for Sanders, the polls will dramatically change in every state, and a path will be revealed.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2016, 11:58:36 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2016, 12:00:31 AM by #TheShadowyAbyss »

For some reason Trump has appeal to EVERY section of the GOP.... Romney didn't. Romney had the liberal to moderate group, Gingrich had the old-guard conservatives, Paul the libertarians and Santorum had the evangelicals. This time Trump is pretty much leading or tied with all the groups

Hillary has the moderate to conservaDems and minorities, Sanders the white latte liberals and young people.

Hillary was competitive because she had the Latino vote around her, even though Obama had the liberal and AA vote. Sanders has NEITHER and probably will hover around 35-40% UNLESS he can make inroads into either the AA or Latino communities.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2016, 11:58:53 PM »

As usual, lazy analysis.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2016, 12:00:38 AM »

Nothing's inevitable but death and taxes. But TRUMP comes pretty damn close at this point.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2016, 12:03:56 AM »

Aren't you some sort of predestination Protestant? In that case, yes, whoever the actual nominee is has been inevitable this entire time Tongue
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2016, 12:04:45 AM »

Trump is the Romney of the cycle, he has the stable support. Cruz is the Gingrich, just another flavor of the month.

Also, Hillary is inevitable unless someone can explain how Bernie overcomes his problems with minorities.

If Iowa and New Hampshire go for Sanders, the polls will dramatically change in every state, and a path will be revealed.

Blacks and Latinos are rather inelastic voters, I doubt Bernie winning IA & NH is going to change many of their minds. And without minority support, the path is very difficult for Sanders to win big states like NY, CA, OH, MI, IL, FL, ect. Unless he can win white women in those states by at least 15%, he's not going to win.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2016, 12:05:05 AM »

Trump losing the general election is more likely than him winning the primary
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2016, 12:07:01 AM »

Trump is the Romney of the cycle, he has the stable support. Cruz is the Gingrich, just another flavor of the month.

Also, Hillary is inevitable unless someone can explain how Bernie overcomes his problems with minorities.

If Iowa and New Hampshire go for Sanders, the polls will dramatically change in every state, and a path will be revealed.

Blacks and Latinos are rather inelastic voters, I doubt Bernie winning IA & NH is going to change many of their minds. And without minority support, the path is very difficult for Sanders to win big states like NY, CA, OH, MI, IL, FL, ect. Unless he can win white women in those states by at least 15%, he's not going to win.

Most people don't understand that minority voters are on the conservative end of the Democratic party, especially the AA community. Bernie is simply too liberal for these groups. And at least from my experience speaking to some of my AA friends there is some dislike for Bernie because of his Jewish background amongst the AA community idk why though
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Broken System
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« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2016, 12:07:18 AM »

Thank you, Wulfric, for actually understanding politics, unlike many others. If someone weak in the national polls wins an early state, they gain recognition and voters gain confidence in their ability to win. Trump is not only leading by an unprecedented amount nationally, but he also has the lowest percentage of supporters who say they are still open to switching their support. It all comes down to Iowa and New Hampshire. If Trump wins both, he secures the nomination. If he loses one of the two, we start to see Trump lose support substantially, all because his campaign hangs on the thread of being a winner. His supporters want to support a winner and be winners, and surely won't take a loss well.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2016, 12:08:29 AM »

And... the person who Trump is competing against in Iowa has a flailing campaign.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2016, 12:09:59 AM »

Thank you, Wulfric, for actually understanding politics, unlike many others. If someone weak in the national polls wins an early state, they gain recognition and voters gain confidence in their ability to win. Trump is not only leading by an unprecedented amount nationally, but he also has the lowest percentage of supporters who say they are still open to switching their support. It all comes down to Iowa and New Hampshire. If Trump wins both, he secures the nomination. If he loses one of the two, we start to see Trump lose support substantially, all because his campaign hangs on the thread of being a winner. His supporters want to support a winner and be winners, and surely won't take a loss well.

He only needs to win Iowa, if he wins Iowa he has all the momentum in the world, he is probably already in the clear to win New Hampshire. If the moderate vote can coalesce around a Rubio or Bush then Trump needs to worry in NH
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2016, 12:10:48 AM »

Aren't you some sort of predestination Protestant? In that case, yes, whoever the actual nominee is has been inevitable this entire time Tongue

Sort of. My full views on predestination are complex and not suitable for this thread. TLDR: I do believe in at least some semblance of destiny, but I also think we have a lot of free will.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2016, 02:21:55 AM »

Trump losing the general election is more likely than him winning the primary

Logical fallacy. He has to win the primary to lose the general election. One thing happening is always more likely than that same thing and another thing happening. Unless you mean he's going to run Indy.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2016, 02:37:12 AM »

If Iowa and New Hampshire go for Sanders, the polls will dramatically change in every state, and a path will be revealed.

Yes. And hopefully that happens.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2016, 10:59:06 AM »

Most people don't understand that minority voters are on the conservative end of the Democratic party, especially the AA community. Bernie is simply too liberal for these groups. And at least from my experience speaking to some of my AA friends there is some dislike for Bernie because of his Jewish background amongst the AA community idk why though

There are plenty of liberal minorities, the issue is that many conservative ones have been pushed into the Democrat Party by default due to economic circumstances or the state of the national Republican Party.  Minorities also tend to place different value on certain issues than white liberals do.  It's an awkward alliance that only persists due to the two-party system.

Also I agree with your analysis of the 2008 Dem primary and the 2012 GOP one. 

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weixiaobao
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« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2016, 11:21:19 AM »

This is stupid.  Around this time in 2012 cycle, Gingrich is trending downward and had already lost some 5 to 10 points in the poll.  There is no such trend with Trump right now.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2016, 11:25:40 AM »

Clinton is, but the only thing "inevitable" about Trump is his loss.
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Cory
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« Reply #20 on: January 21, 2016, 11:39:06 AM »

Trump losing the general election is more likely than him winning the primary

So very likely?
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