When will Tennessee become competitive?

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

What do you think?

[NeverAgain]

After Georgia + Mississippi, but before most of the Solid D's become swing states.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Why would it?  The educated, the cosmopolitan, etc. people that Dems are convinced are loyal to them vote SOLIDLY GOP.  More of them won't push things toward Democrats...?

[DavidB.]

Why would it become D?

[RI]

Why would it become D?

All states are eventually competitive.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Why would it become D?

muh demographix

[RINO Tom]

Why would it become D?

All states are eventually competitive.

True, but that's like saying there will come a day that Alabama will vote Democrat and Massachusetts will vote Republican again.  I have no trouble believing that at all!  But the parties will have changed significantly or those states will have changed significantly.

For the foreseeable future, TN probably has the highest Republican floor in the South.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why would it become D?

All states are eventually competitive.

True, but that's like saying there will come a day that Alabama will vote Democrat and Massachusetts will vote Republican again.  I have no trouble believing that at all!  But the parties will have changed significantly or those states will have changed significantly.

For the foreseeable future, TN probably has the highest Republican floor in the South.

Not in my lifetime.  Actually, I could see something like TN, WY, and OK (plus NE-03) being the only three to not fall in a 2028 or 2032 47-state sweep for the Democrats.

[RINO Tom]

Why would it become D?

All states are eventually competitive.

True, but that's like saying there will come a day that Alabama will vote Democrat and Massachusetts will vote Republican again.  I have no trouble believing that at all!  But the parties will have changed significantly or those states will have changed significantly.

For the foreseeable future, TN probably has the highest Republican floor in the South.

Not in my lifetime.  Actually, I could see something like TN, WY, and OK (plus NE-03) being the only three to not fall in a 2028 or 2032 47-state sweep for the Democrats.

Not sure if you misread my post, but if you read it correctly, we're on the same page!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why would it become D?

All states are eventually competitive.

True, but that's like saying there will come a day that Alabama will vote Democrat and Massachusetts will vote Republican again.  I have no trouble believing that at all!  But the parties will have changed significantly or those states will have changed significantly.

For the foreseeable future, TN probably has the highest Republican floor in the South.

Not in my lifetime.  Actually, I could see something like TN, WY, and OK (plus NE-03) being the only three to not fall in a 2028 or 2032 47-state sweep for the Democrats.

Not sure if you misread my post, but if you read it correctly, we're on the same page!

I was trying to agree with and follow up on it.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

It's been trending to the right for a while and only voted Clinton because of Perot and Gore.  It wasn't as red yet then either.  Even during the mid 20th century it was red.  Carter and Stevenson won there with their southern strengths and so did Johnson who won everywhere.  It hasn't been Democrat without anomaly for a long time.

[Clark Kent]

It's been trending to the right for a while and only voted Clinton because of Perot and Gore.  It wasn't as red yet then either.  Even during the mid 20th century it was red.  Carter and Stevenson won there with their southern strengths and so did Johnson who won everywhere.  It hasn't been Democrat without anomaly for a long time.

Stevenson didn't win.

[Asian Nazi]

Whenever Appalachia gets more pissed off at their Southern neighbors than their Northern ones again and/or a Democrat wartime landslide happens.  So probably not anytime soon.

[smoltchanov]

It will be a very, very long time.  TN is likely going to be the 5th or so most Republican state in the country in a few years.  I think we will see WV, KY, OK and TN pass the Mormon states for good sometime during the 2020's, assuming non-Mormon nominees.

+1. A lot of "Appalachians" here, who are mostly  almost antagonistic to present day Democratic party (for rather belligerent foreign policy, not too environmentally friendly, rather strong social conservative, and so on). Plus - rather strongly (at least relatively) white..

[100% pro-life no matter what]

East Tennessee-
Appalachian, extremely white: R+20 for CD1-3, maybe even more with rural parts of the 4th.  It's ancesterally Republican and trending that way still.  This is one of the biggest Republican strongholds there is.

Middle Tennessee-
Suburban in many ways.  Much flatter than East Tennessee.  Overall PVI would be R+13 or 14 due to the city of Nashville (D+5) bringing it down a bit.  Suburban voters are often quite wealthy and very, very conservative, much like somewhere like the DFW area or some suburbs of Birmingham or Columbia, SC.  Will not be competitive for a long time and is probably still trending GOP.

West Tennessee-
The smallest, but most competitive region of our state.  It is very racially polarized, much like Mississippi, which it neighbors.  However, there is a group of liberal whites in Memphis proper.  Memphis is a much more liberal city (D+25) than Nashville.  The most strict definition of West Tennessee (the 8th and 9th only) would actually be a very inelastic D+3, but some parts of the very conservative 7th would have to be West Tennessee as well.  So, I would call this a GOP+2 or 3 region, maybe.  West Tennessee has much more in common with Mississippi than with Appalachian East Tennessee.

[smoltchanov]

^ So, essentially, Democratic base in Tennessee is Memphis, Nashville, and few majority-black areas besides. To little for "big successes". In less polarized era, when many Border South whites still voted Democratic, it was different. Not so now...

[Mike Thick]

We can only predict trends so far out. Tennessee becoming competitive is chronologically beyond that limit.

[freepcrusher]

at this point the best the democrats can do is to start voting in gop primaries to bar people like blackburn and others from running statewide. People like Corker or Haslam are the best the dems can probably hope for in TN.

[DS0816]

What do you think?

United States Sen. Claire McCaskill thinks Tennessee is going to become "competitive" really soon.

[Bismarck]

Tennessee is staying republican until there is a realignment at least.

[YaBoyNY]

Why would it?  The educated, the cosmopolitan, etc. people that Dems are convinced are loyal to them vote SOLIDLY GOP.  More of them won't push things toward Democrats...?

no they aren't

it's not 1950 anymore bro

[Young Conservative]

Never

[Rockefeller GOP]

Why would it?  The educated, the cosmopolitan, etc. people that Dems are convinced are loyal to them vote SOLIDLY GOP.  More of them won't push things toward Democrats...?

no they aren't

it's not 1950 anymore bro

They are in, ya know, TENNESSEE, which is what this topic is about...

[RFayette]

Why would it?  The educated, the cosmopolitan, etc. people that Dems are convinced are loyal to them vote SOLIDLY GOP.  More of them won't push things toward Democrats...?

no they aren't

it's not 1950 anymore bro

They are in, ya know, TENNESSEE, which is what this topic is about...

Eh, it depends how you define "cosmpolitan" though.  Most of those folks love their Bible and guns, which would make many liberals consider them not "cosmopolitan" despite having a BA/postgraduate degree and high income. 

[ElectionsGuy]

In a massive landslide for Democrats. Absent that, it won't.