Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

FNN/Sankei poll

Party support

LDP      37.7(-3.4)
KP          4.6(+0.6)
ORA        4.3(+1.2)
DP          8.3(+0.4)
JCP         5.7(+1.9)

Back in 2014 the last pre-election poll Sankei had LDP-KP at 45.7.

Calibrating for that result this poll seems to imply LDP-KP PR vote share of around 43%-44%. 

The main cavet is that DP support for this poll seems very low.  On the other hand this is support (which DP tends to poll on the boundary of double digits) and not PR vote which DP tends to be around 15%

[jaichind]

Abe just claimed in an interview that LDP is unlikely to capture a overall majority in the Upper House as a result of this election.  No party has had a majority by itself in the Upper House since 1989 when LDP lost its majority.  This is mainly because no party (LDP or DPJ) managed to have 2 good Upper House election in a row in the period after 1989.

LDP has 65 seats which are not up for reelection.  There are 242 members of the Upper House If LDP were to not able to win a majority as Abe claimed in the Upper House then this election LDP will have to win less than 57.  My current projection for LDP (which is among the most pessimistic for LDP since I have LDP-KP at 44% PR vote as my baseline) is 53 seats.  If you look at political commentators and political discussion boards the medium projection they have is for LDP to win around 58-60 seats which would give it a majority.  More likely or not Abe is trying to lower expectations especially the more pessimistic projections out there, including myself, has LDP below 57 seats.

[jaichind]

Nikkan Gendai continue with their very LDP pessimistic projection



                District      PR       Total
LDP            36           15         51
KP               6             7          13
ORA            3             3            6
DP             19           11          30
PLP             2              1           3
SDP            0              1           1
JCP             5              8         13
AO              1             0           1
pro-DP Ind  1              0          1

I allocated the 5 independent winners with their de facto parties. 1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO, and one pro-DP independent. 

These results would be a significant setback for LDP and ORA.  It would have a surge for JCP and VPA.  JCP would be 14%-15% under this estimate on the PR section which would be a massive surge.  LDP-KP will be around 44.5% which is roughly in line with my estimates.  But ORA would come in at a bit more than 6% which would mean disaster in the district races where there are less ORA voters to vote for LDP where ORA is not running.  In that sense the PR and district results are consistent.  My main problem is that It has PLP around 2% and VPA around 4% on the PR which I find unlikely as PLP and VPA would most likely rob each other of votes. 

[jaichind]

A survey of the candidates by party on various positions on key topics produced the chart below.

The topics are

Abenomics
New Security Law
Nuclear Power
Changing of non-military clause in the Constitution
Abe Cabinet in charge of Constitution change



For Abenomics obviously LDP-KP very pro, NPR, ORA, and NBP seems to back Abenomics with ORA backed TCJ somewhat against.  Here the DPJ background of TCJ despite its center-right orientation does come out.  DP, SDP, PLP and JCP increasing against in that order.  Makes sense.

For New Security Law obviously LDP-KP are for since their are the ones who pushed it through.  NPR and NPB also seems to be for while ORA is somewhat for with TCJ neutral.  DP, PLP, SDP and JCP  increasing against in that order.

For nuclear power LDP-KP along with NPB are alone in being for.  DP and ORA somewhat against and NPR, TCJ,  PLP, SDP, and JCP increasing against in that order.

Changing of non-military clause in the Constitution.  LDP and NPB are for with ORA and TCJ somewhat for.  KP is neutral (although deep down they are against, most likely many take the "no opinion" option as not to offend their LDP allies), NPR somewhat against, and DP, PLP, SDP and JCP  increasing against in that order.

As for Abe Cabinet in charge of Constitution change  it is pretty much the same as Changing of non-military clause in the Constitution with TCJ taking a much more negative position.

Not sure why they did not include HRP in this survey.  If they did they will find that HRP is the most hawkish party.  It seems despite the image ORA projects its candidates are a good more dovish than LDP.  PLP is clearly pushing itself as a Leftist party on economic and national security policy issues trying to move in the SDP niche.  Micro party NPB seems to be a LDP-lite hawk party.   Other than LDP-KP all opposition parties seems to be anti-nuclear.  Overall 2016 ORA is only somewhat more hawkish and more pro-LDP than 2014 JIP.  It seems that ORA's plan is still try to capture most of the 2014 JIP vote while hoping to cash in on disillusioned center-right LDP voters.  KP is with LDP on economic issues but part ways with LDP on Constitutional issues.   This seem to paint a picture that even after the election and the ruling parties (LDP-KP) plus ORA plus a bunch of ex-YP and PJK MPs get a 2/3 majority in the Upper House it seems hard for Abe to push through any real constitutional change.  To get KP and the volatile Hashimoto controlled ORA to all on the same page at the same time would be hard.  

Of course this chart tells you one thing.  If you want to vote anti-Abe the most anti-Abe party is JCP.  Given that anti-Abe sentiment is risen with his longer incumbency the rise of JCP is not hard to explain.

[jaichind]

Various news agencies coming out with their projections (most of it for 1- member seats)

産経新聞 (Sankei) projects out of the 32 1- member districts it is LDP 22 Opposition 8 with 2 Tossup (青森   (Aomori) !! and 山梨(Yamanashi))   Aomori being tossup is a big surprise although the DP leaked internal assessments was also pretty positive on Aomori.  But LDP winning around 22-24 1- member seats seems pretty much in line with my projections but more negative than conventional wisdom.

日経新聞(Nikkei) is more guarded in their assessment.   They have out of the 32 1- member seats LDP ahead in 16, LDP-opposition neck-to-neck 14 and opposition ahead in 2.  This seems a bit negative for LDP.  By my count LDP is a lock in at least 17 seats and significantly ahead in 4 more.  Nikkei has LDP ahead in 16 only seems pretty negative for LDP.  Nikkei has Abe cabinet approval at 46.  Party support is LDP 43 KP 6 ORA 4 DP 16 JCP 6.  Given these levels of support I am surprised at the fairly negative projection for LDP.  I guess Nikkei is filtering out its pro-LDP house effects.

毎日新聞(Mainichi) has the most pro-LDP assessment for 1- seat districts.  It has LDP ahead in 25, 4 neck-to-neck, and  opposition ahead in 3  (宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), 沖縄(Okinawa)).  What is surprising here is they have 岩手(Iwate) as neck-to-neck.  This seems very unlikely.  They must be picking up an anti-Ozawa wave there or more likely they are overpredicted the demise of Ozawa in Iwate.   In more positive news for DP they project that DP could capture 2 seats in 北海道(Hokkaido) (must be JCP tactical voting plus LDP rebel taking a large bloc of votes) but is negative on DP winning 2 seats in Tokyo (in which case ORA and LDP win the last 2 seats).  The same survey has Abe Cabinet approval at 42/35.  Party support at LDP 33 KP 5 ORA 4 DP 13 JCP 6.  Calibrating with how Manichi polls performed in 2013 this puts LDP-KP at 42%-43% which seems at conflict with their positive projection for LDP.  Manichi projects at least 70 seats for LDP-KP.

読売新聞(Yomiuri) does not reveal much.  The produced a chart with a spectrum of possibilities  They said that undecided where high (over 30%) and that LDP is on the boundary of 57 seats but will most likely fall short where it would regain single party majority in the Upper House.  Eyeballing it it seems the medium case is LDP with 55 seats and KP with 12 seats. It is in the mainstream but a bit more pessimistic than the conventional wisdom.  It has LDP with a lock in 16 out of the 32 single member districts but does not say about on the rest which I assume most is neck-to-neck as if LDP only wins 16 out of 32 single member seats there is no way it gets to 55 seats.  Just like Nikkei this projection seems fairly negative but the final projection of 68 seats for LDP-KP seems to indicate that LDP will win a good part of the remaining non-LDP dominate single member districts.  It does say that the opposition is very competitive in the North which speaks to the blowback on LDP due to TPP.  Its medium case for DP seems to be around 30, for JCP 11, and ORA 8.  That leaves 4 of which at least 3 or not all 4 are pro-DP independents (like AO and PLP candidates running as independents).  This is a pretty negative projection for LDP all in all.

 

[jaichind]

I saw a funny set of pictures in a Japanese election discussion board.  

This is a picture from a Young LDP collegiate conference to support the LDP in the upcoming election

 

This is a picture from a similar conference for DP.



The difference is clear.  It is dress of course but there is also a gender gap.   Given my dress habits even though I am clearly on the Far Right I would rather attend the DP conference.

[jaichind]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) which has the most pro-LDP projection so far had a poll for Tokyo where it found that Renho of DP is first, then LDP#1, JCP and then KP.  It finds that DP#2 LDP#2 and ORA in a three way tie.  Given that Manichi has the most pro-LDP projections so far this poll seems pretty positive for DP.  The only negative news is that Renho is running first which points to a maldistribution of the DP vote between its two candidate and that Renho could be taking to much of the DP vote and not leaving enough for the DP#2 candidate to make it into the top six.   

[jaichind]

共同通信社 (Kyodo) projection is that LDP close to 60 seats and LDP-KP should cross 70 seats.  Given that KP should be 13-14 seats it seems to put LDP around 57 seats or so.   It has LDP ahead in 22 out of 32 single member seats and either opposition lead or neck-to-neck in the remaining 10.  All in all pretty close to Mainichi projections which is among the more optimistic media projections for LDP.

[jaichind]

朝日 (Asahi) projections



                 District        PR           Total
LDP              38           19            57
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                19           11           30
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 2            6              8
AO                 1            0               1
Pro-DP Ind     3            0               3

All things equal I do not buy this poll.  I do not feel the PR vote and district vote results are consistent.  It seems to project ORA underperforming on the PR vote section and falling to around 8% losing votes to LDP.  For LDP-KP the PR vote seems to imply a vote share around 51%-52% on the PR.  Even with ORA falling to 8% on the PR section I find it hard to believe that LDP-KP will win 51%-52% of the PR vote.  And if LDP-KP is at 51%-52% then LDP should crush DP in the district vote at a much higher level then this projection indicates.  

This projection looks very much in line with the Kyodo and Mainichi in which case I suspect those projections would contains the same flaws, in my view.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I saw a funny set of pictures in a Japanese election discussion board.  

This is a picture from a Young LDP collegiate conference to support the LDP in the upcoming election

 

This is a picture from a similar conference for DP.



The difference is clear.  It is dress of course but there is also a gender gap.   Given my dress habits even though I am clearly on the Far Right I would rather attend the DP conference.

I honestly can't tell whether or not the DP picture is from an all-women's university.

[jaichind]

A comparison between my projection with the most pro-LDP projection which is 朝日 (Asahi) reveals that for single member seats Asahi has it LDP 24 to Opposition 8.  I have LDP 21 Opposition 11 which several opposition victories neck-to-neck victories which could easily go the other way.  Asahi and I completely disagree on some fundamental dynamics which actually cancel each other out in large part ergo the single member district projections are not that far apart.  They are

1) Asahi has LDP-KP at a great result at around 51.5% in PR and ORA at a disappointing around 7.5% in the PR section as there is a swing from ORA to LDP.  While I have LDP-KP at 44% for PR of which some went to ORA which I have 9% at PR.

2) Asahi has LDP-KP getting an unusually swing away from, especially in the district votes, in the North due to TPP.  I factored that in as well but my model uses elasticity and trend at the prefecture level which already contains that trend as the North has been trending away from LDP anyway.

3) Asahi has LDP losing some of its PR vote in the district vote to the opposition plus ORA tactically voting against LDP for opposition candidates where ORA is not running.  I have ORA mostly voting for LDP where ORA are not running as well as some DP voters defecting to LDP in the district vote to protest the DP alliance with JCP.

It seems that difference between Asahi and myself for 2) and 3) canceled out a lot of the effect of 1).  We will see who is right July 10th.

[jaichind]

One surprise in the media projections has both 日経新聞(Nikkei)  and 日経新聞(Nikkei)  projecting that for 北海道(Hokkaido) the DP winning 2 of 3 seats with the LDP winning 1 as opposed to the conventional wisdom has it other way around.  This seems to be a function of the anti-LDP trend in the North due to TPP as well as the effect of a LDP rebel running in the fray splitting the LDP vote.  Even my LDP pessimistic projection has LDP narrowing winning 2 seats versus DP winning 1.

[jaichind]

共同通信社 (Kyodo) projection chart



                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           21            59
KP                 6             7             13
ORA               2             3              5
DP                18           10           28
PLP                2            0               2
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 3            6              9
AO                 1            0               1
Pro-DP Ind     3            0               3

I allocated 2 of the 6 independent winners as PLP as they are de facto PLP.

Wow.  What a projection.   This projection has LDP-KP PR vote share at around 55% and ORA at 6%.  This is the same as 朝日 (Asahi)  but even more extreme.  Again this projection makes no sense as if LDP-KP can win 55% on the PR vote then it should just sweep the district elections but these projections indicates that DP and the opposition doing reasonably well in the district seats.  This makes no sense.

[jaichind]

日経新聞(Nikkei) projection chart.  This one is not clear what the medium projection is but  I will try to infer it by eyeballing it.  





LDP                   59
KP                     13
ORA                    5
DP                    27
PLP (ind)             2
SDP                    1
JCP                   11
AO                     1
pro-DP ind          2

LDP-KP bloc (including pro-LDP independent) at 73 which is pretty close to other media projections.

Nikkei also projected out of 32 single member districts LDP is ahead in 16, Opposition ahead in 2, and 14 neck-to-neck.  



Opposition ahead in 岩手(Iwate) and 沖縄(Okinawa) which makes sense.  Tossups surprises are 青森   (Aomori), 秋田(Akita), 岐阜(Gifu), 岡山(Okayama), and 愛媛(Ehime).  Rest are well know tossups.

[jaichind]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) chart on PR result.  I will have to eyeball it to get the medium projection



LDP       17
KP          7
ORA        5
DP        11
SDP        1
JCP         7

This would put LDP-KP PR vote share more like 48%-49% which I feel is more reasonable but still way too high but it is lower than other media projections for LDP-KP PR vote share.  It also has ORA around 9%-10% which is higher than other media projections.

[jaichind]

It is said that for the Tokyo Governor election DP-PLP-SDP-JCP will work toward a joint candidate.  Weather this will work I guess will depend on the candidate.

[jaichind]

Overall the positive surprises for the opposition from all these media polls seems to be

1) DP has a real shot at winning 2 seats in 北海道(Hokkaido)
2) DP competitive in 青森(Aomori) and may even have the upper hand
3) DP had upper hand in 宮城(Miyagi) and Center-left opposition independent has the upper hand in 山形(Yamagata)
4) 秋田(Akita) might be in play for DP
5) LDP-KP not as strong in 神奈川(Kanagawa) which makes LDP-KP plans to capture 3 seats with the help of a pro-LDP ex-YP independent unlikely to succeed  
6) JCP has a solid shot at winning the 4 seat in 大阪(Osaka) over ORA#2 candidate.  
7) DP#2 has a solid shot if not the upper hand to win the 6th seat in 東京(Tokyo)
8 ) Center-left opposition independent within striking distance of LDP in 愛媛(Ehime) which is a total shock.

On the other side of the ledger the positive news for LDP is that

1) LDP still very competitive in 長野(Nagano) and may have the upper hand.
2) LDP most likely has the upper hand in 滋賀(Shiga) where it was thought it was DP ahead.

[jaichind]

There is something very strange about these various media surveys.  I complained about this before but lets look at the two most extreme survey results in terms of likely LDP-KP vote share and compare to demonstrate my point.

We have Nikkan Gendai



                District      PR       Total
LDP            36           15         51
KP               6             7          13
ORA            3             3            6
DP             18           11          29
PLP             0              1           1
SDP            0              1           1
JCP             5              8         13
pro-DP Ind  5              0          5

and

共同通信社 (Kyodo)



                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           21            59
KP                 6             7             13
ORA               2             3              5
DP                18           10           28
PLP                0            0               0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 3            6              9
AO                 1            0               1
Pro-DP Ind     6            0               6

The Nikkan Gendai survey has LDP-KP at 22 PR seats which puts the LDP-KP PR vote share around 43.5%  The Kyodo survey has LDP-KP at 28 PR seats which puts the LDP-KP PR voet share around 55.5%.  Yet the Nikkan Gendai survey has LDP-KP winning 42 out of 73 district seats while Kyodo has LDP-KP winning only 44 district seats.

This would be like two separate USA polls where the gap between the GOP generic Congressional vote share has a gap of 12% between the poll yet the two poll has the GOP only winning around 15 more seats in the one poll versus the other.  One of the two, or most likely both, must be wrong.

Someone else posted a blog post complaining about something different.  They pointed out that if you read the details of the surveys done by two separate news agencies, in this case 読売新聞(Yomiuri)  and 日経新聞(Nikkei)  respectively





You noticed that both surveys claimed to have called 50,943 registered voters of which 27,640 responded.

Also both the 共同通信社 (Kyodo) and 毎日新聞(Mainichi)  also claimed to have polled "around 27,000" registered voters.

It seems that at least these 4 news agencies really just used the same pollster.  This not that absurd since for exit polls in the USA many TV networks just used the same consortium to do exit polls ergo the mess up in FL 2000.  

What is weird is that these news agencies, using the same poll, came out with different results, especially on the PR vote section.

I suspect the explanation for this is the centralized survey really just covered the district votes and the PR section are derived by polls done by the media agencies themselves.  This would explain why the media projection would have PR and district result which are not consistent since they are from different sources.  Of course I would expect some basic QA before they publish this stuff.  Someone should have said "these results on the PR and district section does not seem to jive, lets look more into this before just throwing it over the fence."  I guess no one did this.

[jaichind]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) poll on support for Constitutional change has it being opposed 36/45



LDP voters are for 58/28
KP voters are 44/38
ORA voters 47/42
DP voters 18/75
JCP voters 15/80

It seems surprising that ORA voters are split down the middle on this.  It shows that the ORA vote still has a good chunk of the old center-right anti-LDP part of the pre-2012 DPJ vote base which is less hawkish but has a libertarian streak.

[jaichind]

DP leader 岡田 克也 (Okada Katsuya) indicated that if the DP candidate for his home prefecture 三重(Mie) failed to win against the LDP he would step down as leader of DP.  Not a bad bet.  If DP lost Mie then DP will most likely lose most of the tossups which means Okada would be tossed out anyway by the DP.

[Vega]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) poll on support for Constitutional change has it being opposed 36/45



LDP voters are for 58/28
KP voters are 44/38
ORA voters 47/42
DP voters 18/75
JCP voters 15/80

It seems surprising that ORA voters are split down the middle on this.  It shows that the ORA vote still has a good chunk of the old center-right anti-LDP part of the pre-2012 DPJ vote base which is less hawkish but has a libertarian streak.

Who would be the oddsnon favorite to secede him? Hosono?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Abe fails to amend the constitution in a referendum, would he resign?

[jaichind]

Final NHK poll

Abe approval  47/36



Party ID

LDP      36.4
KP          5.5
ORA       2.1
DP         8.9
PLP        0.1
SDP       0.5
JCP        4.8



As expected all major parties gained in polarization right before an election.  The rule of thumb for NHK polls right before an election is the LDP-KP PR vote share should be NHK polls plus 1%-3% which would put LDP-KP PR vote share at 43%-45% which puts in fairly in line with other polls once we calibrate them with previous results to filter out pro-LDP biases.  

It seems with this NHK poll we should be looking at LDP-KP PR vote of around 44% which is the basis of my prediction model.  The main risk is that DP levels of support seems low given LDP-KP levels of support although this is not true for polls that ask explicitly for PR vote in which case DP is well into the double digits.  I guess it is this risk that made all the most media projections have LDP-KP PR vote  at the 48%-56% range.

One good news for opposition alliance is that approval for the 4 party opposition alliance (DP-PLP-SDP-JCP) which had been well underwater are now nearly even 45/47



Abenomics approval is 44/49 which is not bad under the circumstances

 

[jaichind]

Who would be the oddsnon favorite to secede him? Hosono?

Perhaps.  I suspect 長妻 昭 (Nagatsuma Akira) and 蓮舫(Renhō) will be in the running as well.  A lot depends on how DP loses the election, badly or marginally. 

[jaichind]

If Abe fails to amend the constitution in a referendum, would he resign?

I doubt it will really get to that.  Unless LDP wins by a unexpected landslide in July 10th, to get a 2/3 majority will require LDP, KP, ORA plus various non-LDP right parties (AEJ, PJK) and various ex-PFG/ex-YP independents.  To get that entire bloc to agree to a controversial change for the constitution seems pretty hard.  Of course if LDP completely hits a home rome and does much much better than expected then Abe will have the mandate to try.  In that case it is not clear he will lose the referendum and may likely win it given the resulting demoralization of the center-left opposition.