Japan 2016 - July 10

[Vega]

Token post asking for English results web page? Thanks.

Glad to know the LDP machine is still well oiled.

[jaichind]

Yikes. This is going to be bad.

Perhaps.  On the other hand higher early voting means that turnout is already up by 2.2%.  There is plenty of time for turnout to pickup in the afternoon leading to an increase in turnout relative to 2013.

[jaichind]

Token post asking for English results web page? Thanks.

Glad to know the LDP machine is still well oiled.

This will not be easy.  Best one I can think of is NHK's English site.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

But it will be slower than the Kanji version.  The Japanese does not make it easy for someone to follow live election results for someone that does not read Kanji or understand Japanese.

[jaichind]

As of 10PM turnout looks like

青森(Aomori) 11.63% up from 10.56% in 2013
東京(Tokyo)  7.09% up from 6.52% in 2013
神奈川(Kanagawa) 6.87% down from 7.11% in 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 6.40% down from 7.60% in 2013
秋田(Akita) 10.30% up from 10.26% in 2013
北海道(Hokkaido) 9.95% down from 10.52% in 2013
福岡(Fukuoka) 5.73% down from 6.24% in 2013
長野(Nagano) 9.46% up from 9.42% in 2013
鹿児島(Kagoshima) 10.69% down from 11.37% in 2013 -> this is surprising given there is a Governor race here as well

[jaichind]

As of 11PM turnout looks like

愛知(Aichi) 13.64% up from 13.56% in 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 11.12% down from 12.68 in 2013 -> This is bad news for ORA, good news for JCP
神奈川(Kanagawa) 11.72% down from 12.08 in 2013
東京(Tokyo) 11.54% up from 11.10% in 2013
埼玉(Saitama) 10.21% down from 10.74% in 2013
秋田(Akita) 15.05% up from 14.23% in 2013
北海道(Hokkaido) 15.11% down from 15.79% in 2013
福岡(Fukuoka) 10.35% down from 10.42% in 2013

[Oak Hills]

When will we start getting results?

[Vega]

When will we start getting results?

It's only 2:00 PM so it'll probably be a few hours.

[Harry Hayfield]

NHK World (which is broadcast in the UK on the SKY HD platform) will be broadcasting results from 11.40am BST at regular intervals. The schedule I have says 11.40am - 12.30pm, 1.00pm - 1.15pm, 2.00pm - 2.40pm, 3.00pm - 3.15pm, 4.00pm - 4.15pm, 5.00pm - 5.15pm and then news bulletins (fifteen minutes long) every hour until midnight when the usual half hour broadcast resumes. Therefore I shall be posting the numbers that they produce on a fairly regular basis

[jaichind]

As of 4PM turnout is 27.25% which is 0.04% higher than 2013.

The current turnout projection based on the data so far plus early voting has it at 55.89% up 3.28% since 2013

[jaichind]

Turnout as of 6PM by region

東京(Tokyo) 35.10% up from 33.05% in 2013
青森(Aomori) 32.62% up from 30.30% in 2013
山形(Yamagata) 39.79% down from 41.29% in 2013
宮城(Miyagi) 32.37% down from 33.58% in 2013
岩手(Iwate) 36.88% down from 39.87% in 2013
福岡(Fukuoka) 30.97% up from 29.72% in 2013
北海道(Hokkaido) 33.24% down from 33.87% in 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 30.94% down from 32.37% in 2013
神奈川(Kanagawa) 33.86% down from 34.19% in 2013
秋田(Akita) 31.07% up from 29.90% in 2013
茨城(Ibaraki) 30.72% down from 33.04% in 2013
鹿児島(Kagoshima) 35.11% up from 29.17% in 2013 -> Governor race also on the same day
新潟(Niigata) 39.40% up from 39.17% in 2013

[jaichind]

As of 6PM overall turnout 32.49% down from 32.64% in 2013.  Note that this does not include early voting where turnout is up 2.57% from 2013.  So most likely we will end up with turnout of around 54.5%-55% or so.

Overall turnout dropped the most in areas where ORA is strong plus some LDP strongholds.  Tokyo turnout is up which is driving the average.

[jaichind]

Turnout chart by time

　　　　　2016　　2013　　 Diff
10am　*7.92%　*8.61%　▼0.69P
11am　13.22%　13.72%　▼0.50P
02pm　22.54%　22.66%　▼0.12P
04pm　27.25%　27.21%　＋0.04P
06pm　32.49%　32.64%　▼0.15P

Early
Vote     15.00%   12.43% ＋2.57P　　

[jaichind]

As of 7pm

埼玉(Saitama) 33.04% down from 34.85% in 2013 drop of 1.81%.  As of 6pm the drop was 1.85%
大阪市 (Osaka City) 33.16% down from 35.89% drop of 2.73%.  As of 6pm the drop was 1.43%. 

Osaka turnout is falling fast.  Bad news for ORA.

[Harry Hayfield]

(Source: Wikipedia)

Results of last election (2013)
Liberal Democrats 43% constituency vote / 35% PR vote = 115 seats (+31 on 2010)
New Komeito Party 5% constituency vote / 14% PR vote = 20 seats (+1 on 2010)
Coalition Totals: 48% constituency vote / 49% PR vote = 135 seats (+32 on 2010)

Democratic Party 16% constituency vote / 13% PR vote = 59 seats (-27 on 2010)
Restoration Party 7% constituency vote / 12% PR vote = 9 seats (+6 on 2010)
Communists 11% constituency vote / 10% PR vote = 11 seats (+5 on 2010)
Your Party 8% constituency vote / 9% PR vote = 18 seats (+5 on 2010)
Social Democrats 1% constituency vote / 2% PR vote = 3 seats (-1 on 2010)
Others and Independents 10% constituency vote / 5% PR vote = 4 (-12 on 2010)
Opposition Totals: 52% constituency vote / 51% PR vote = 107 seats (-27 on 2010)

[jaichind]

As of 7:30PM

Turnout in 福岡(Fukuoka) surged to 48.69% up from 45.02% in 2013.  Not clear why this is.  The race is is not that competitive.    In theory good news for DP but this is a LDP stronghold so it could be a net wash in terms of net PR vote affect.

For 神奈川(Kanagawa) it is 38.75% down for 39.47% in 2013 for a decrease of 0.72%.  As of 6PM the drop was 0.33%.  The race here is quite competitive but I guess turnout ran out of steam toward the end.

[jaichind]

Live Japanese link for NHK

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

It is active now.  Exit polls will be announced here in 5 min.

[jaichind]

LDP-KP 67-76
LDP-KP-ORA 75-85
LDP 54-61
KP 13-15
DP 26-32
JCP 5-8
ORA 6-9

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

[Harry Hayfield]

NHK Exit Poll (published at 8.00pm Japan time)
Coalition 67 - 76 seats
Coalition in favour of constitutional amendment 75 - 85 seats

Liberal Democrats 54 - 61 seats
Democratic Party 26 - 32 seats

[jaichind]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

That is the constitutional change bloc  LDP-KP-ORA

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

That is the constitutional change bloc  LDP-KP-ORA

That's not even an absolute majority... Isn't that a huge underperformance?

[jaichind]

NHK projects opposition wins 岩手(Iwate)  山形(Yamagata) 沖縄(Okinawa) for sure

[jaichind]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

That is the constitutional change bloc  LDP-KP-ORA

That's not even an absolute majority... Isn't that a huge underperformance?

This is out of 121.  They have to get to 78 to get to 2/3 majority with the same bloc having 84 from the 2013 election.

[jaichind]

For PR section it will be

LDP  17
DP    10
KP      6
JCP    4
ORA   3

8 more seats unclear where they go.  LDP-KP then most have won nearly 50% of the PR vote. Wow

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently a yellow-colored party is expected to get 78 to 85 seats? Is that LDP or the opposition?

That is the constitutional change bloc  LDP-KP-ORA

That's not even an absolute majority... Isn't that a huge underperformance?

This is out of 121.  They have to get to 78 to get to 2/3 majority with the same bloc having 84 from the 2013 election.

Is is that only half the seats are up for election, or that polls have only closed in some areas? Sorry for the dumb n00b question.