Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

DP's leader Katsuya Okada will not run for re-election in the DP Sept leadership race taking responsibility for a disappointing result for DP, especially on the PR slate.  Tokyo Upper House MP Renho is said to be in the running and most likely will be the frontrunner. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tokyo Upper House MP Renho is said to be in the running and most likely will be the frontrunner. 

1. Good.
2. Bring on the overt racist abuse, I guess.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Upper House MP Renho is said to be in the running and most likely will be the frontrunner. 

1. Good.
2. Bring on the overt racist abuse, I guess.

I think most of the attacks on her would more be about a 2010 Vogue Photo Shoot in Diet Building that she participated in. 



She apologized but one way to get at her would be to bring it up again.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I understand what the issue with that is but 1. it would be really easy (not inevitable, but really easy) for attacks on that to come across as (or to be) sexist abuse and 2. that's one of the greatest outfits I've ever seen.

[Vega]

I'm sure she'll get a lot of buzz in the international press, but I can't see her being able to do much for the party electorally.

If she does run, I'm sure she'll be virtually unopposed. Goshi Hosano is probably a secondary factor if she doesn't.

[jaichind]

Looking at the way the LDP-KP PR vote flowed at an even more detailed level I think can be quite revealing about the nature of the 2016 Upper House election mandate.  Since I already built a model using inferences and regression to track PR vote shifts per district this is easy to do.  I decided to break down all the districts along the following distinctions  

1) Is it a 1- member district ? This is relevant as DP had an alliance with JPC in all 1- member districts and did not have an alliance with JCP when it is not a 1- member district.  1- member districts are also rural districts where Abenomics clearly have not delivered so there are clear reasons for discontent with Abe.
2) Is an ORA candidate running? This is important because a lack of an ORA candidate means a significant part of the ORA+ PR vote would flow to the LDP/KP candidates while the existence of an ORA candidate means discontented LDP voters have someone to vote for to vent without having to vote DP/JCP.
3) Is a KP candidate running?  This is important because there are all sort of KP/DP and KP/ORA tactical voting mostly due to the desire to block the JCP candidate.  
4) I split out 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) as Osaka+ as special as ORA is very strong here so that shifts the dynamics of the PR to district vote flow.  
5) I split out 東京(Tokyo) because there seems, just like the 1- member rural districts, there seems to be a significant about of discontent with Abe within the LDP PR vote bloc.  

From this I derive the following types of districts
1) Non-ORA 1- member districts
2) Non-ORA multi-member districts
3) ORA 1- member districts
4) Tokyo
5) Osaka+
6) Multi-member districts with ORA and KP
7) Multi-member districts with ORA and not KP

For each one of these district types I  look at the net vote share shift to and from LDP/KP with respect to HRP, ORA+, DP+, LDP rebel, and rest (which are NPB, Minor parties, and ex-YP)

                    Share of  LDP/KP           Net gain/loss by LDP-KP relative to                    LDP/KP
Districts      Electorate  PR vote       HRP      ORA+      DP+      LDP rebel   Others      District vote
 
No ORA
1- mem       36.47%   53.30%    -2.17%    5.29%   -2.83%     -0.31%     0.33%        53.60%

No ORA
multi-M       14.03%   48.54%    -0.71%    2.71%   -3.80%     -1.07%     0.42%        46.09%

ORA
1-mem         1.14%    46.95%    -1.31%   1.00%   -1.51%       0.00%     0.41%        45.54%
 
Tokyo         11.05%    45.81%     0.04%  -1.08%   -8.14%       0.00%     0.34%        36.96%

Osaka+      10.84%    41.90%    -0.48%  -0.32%    1.35%       0.00%     0.09%        42.55%

ORA and     22.30%    48.24%    -0.28%   1.16%    0.56%      -0.38%    0.52%         49.82%
KP

ORA and      4.17%    55.36%     -0.80%  -1.36%   -1.68%      0.00%    -1.51%        50.01%
not KP

All           100.00%    49.45%     -1.05%   2.36%   -2.28%     -0.35%     0.28%         48.41%

                      
What ones gets out of this are
1) There is heavy discontent in rural 1-member districts with Abe.  The LDP vote for HRP which would be a protest vote is high.  There are also high levels of LDP and KP PR vote defections over to the DP led opposition which seems a lot larger than DP voters defecting to LDP to protest the alliance with JCP in these districts.  The ORA+ PR vote went mostly for LDP in reaction to the DP-JCP alliance saved it from a even larger rout.  The LDP PR vote is high here and seems to reflect a LDP consolidation in reaction to the DP-JCP alliance.  In the district vote many shifted away from the LDP candidate to protest against the non-effectiveness of Abenomics.
2) In multimember districts without ORA where it is more urban this anti-Abe protest vote seems to diminish.  But ORA+ PR vote for LDP is smaller due to no DP-JCP alliance.  Likewise the net gain for DP from LDP/KP PR voter is larger since there is no DP-JCP alliance here.
3) Tokyo seems to exhibit the the same discontent with Abenomics only now there are plenty of options to vent LDP PR voter protest.  In this case given the DP+ bloc had more colorful candidate the defection mostly swung toward DP+ candidates.
4) In Osaka+, DP+ are fairly weak so ORA vs LDP polarization seems to attract DP+ PR voters.
5) In the remaining multi-member districts we see the power of KP and relative weakness of LDP.  In districts where KP is running, it is able to pull in ORA+ and DP+ PR voters for KP district vote.  Without KP running the LDP district loses LDP/KP PR votes to both ORA+ and DP candidates.  

These vote flows should paint a stark picture for Abe.  In theory, the LDP machine should have stronger local quality district candidates that can and should overperform the LDP-KP PR vote.  The LDP victory is in spite of and not because of Abe.  The strong LDP PR vote is more reflective of a protest against the DP-JCP alliance and a vote for the non-Abe factions of LDP.  Unless KP is in the fray, the LDP-KP bloc in the district vote is bleeding votes for ORA+ and DP+ from the LDP-KP PR vote share when it should be the opposite.  The Koike phenomenon in Tokyo is also another indicator of the growing strength of a non-Abe current within the LDP.

[jaichind]

With the DP leadership contest coming up as a consequence of the 2016 Upper House elections

This chart lays out the different factions with DP



What is part of the article

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003116810

If Renho runs she will have to run on her personal appeal as she comes from a small "faction" within DP.  MPs who came from the former JIP plan to run a candidate of their own on a platform of ending the DP alliance with JCP.

[jaichind]

This is the Japanese version of pretty much the same chart on DP factions.



it seems to imply that Renho will be backed by Kaseikai, ex-DSP/SPJ members and perhaps Sokokai.  While ex-JIP bloc might ally with the non-mainstream factions.  So if it becomes a race Renho would be the Leftist candidate versus a ex-JIP backed Conservative alternative.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

When Abe is gone and/or his coalition no longer has and no longer is in immediate danger of having supermajorities in both houses, then it may be time to consider reconfiguring or ending the opposition grand alliance. Until then, it's a godawful, suicidal idea, even though I understand why people from JIP would want to.

[jaichind]

In retrospect the turning point of the election was in 6/26 when first term JCP MP 藤野保史 (Fujino Yasushi) who was the head of the JCP’s policy committee who on a political talk show described the government’s defense budget as money to “kill people."  He resigned the next day but the damage was done.  The media polls and projections turned more pro-LDP right after this incident.  The one surprise of this election was that the JCP surge which was expected by all never showed up.  The JCP PR vote in 2016 underperformed 2014 when it was expected to overperform by 1%-2%.  This comment most likely depressed JCP turnout and turned out dissident LDP voters who voted LDP on PR vote and then voted for other parties like HRP or ORA in the district vote.

Looking back at the result this event most likely gave LDP 1-2 seats extra on PR as well an extra seat in 神奈川(Kanagawa) which JCP lost.   It is even possible that 愛媛(Ehime) would have fell to the opposition as well if it was not been for this event in retrospect.  A net loss of 2-4 seats for the LDP in the election would have made the difference between a small victory and a small defeat in relative to expectations. 

 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That's a reason to keep the JCP on a tighter leash (if possible), not to jettison it. Unless keeping it on a tighter leash would cause it to break away from the coalition itself.

[Vega]

It seems rather odd to me that the smallest comment or gaffe can tank an opposition party. Kazuo Shii must be an extremely disciplined person given how long he's led the party (16 years!).

[Famous Mortimer]

What do the names of the different factions translate as/mean?

[jaichind]

What do the names of the different factions translate as/mean?

Do not bother. There are no real meaning to any of the names.  They would have names such as "Wise Leadership Club" or even "Make Japan Great Again Bloc" none of which tell you what the faction is about.  Faction names in DP/DPJ and LDP are mostly empty slogan names.  People usually refer to factions (especially LDP ones) by the name of the leader.

Here is a LDP faction history map.  All names are names of leaders of factions whose name changes when a new faction leader takes over.

 
 

[jaichind]

Looks like former UP (YP splinter) and JIP leader  江田 憲司 (Eda Kenji) will run for DP leadership.  He will pretty much represent the DP Right in the contest while Renho will represent the Left.  Renho is running on continuing the DP alliance with JCP.  Eda will run on ending that alliance.   Eda ran in 2000 as a LDP candidate but was defeated.  When LDP nominated another candidate for his district he ran as a LDP rebel and won and continued winning his seat as a LDP rebel.  He then joined YP before creating a YP splinter UP which merged with JRP to form JIP.  He was JIP leader until he stepped down in 2015.

[jaichind]

Latest post-election updates

1) Abe cabinet reshuffle has led to 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) who was Abe's main rival in the 2012 LDP election and still is Abe's main rival today in the LDP leaving the cabinet with a apparent desire  to lead an non-Abe opposition within the LDP with an eye on a post-Abe LDP world.
2) Old Abe rival 二階 俊博 (Nikai Toshihiro) and lead of the pro-Beijing faction within the LDP seems to have made a deal with Abe and has been made General Secretary of the LDP.  He seems to want to fight for the leadership of the LDP post-Abe based on being on the inside track.  Abe needs him anyway to help mend relationships with PRC.
3) The Emperor has implied he wants to abdicate in a clear attempt to disrupt any Abe plans for Constitutional revision by eating up the political oxygen for the next few months as the LDP figures out how to pass laws (or now) to allow this to take place.
4) 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko) has taken office as Tokyo governor and her relationship with Tokyo LDP has gone for bad to worse.  The day of a  Koike Party being formed is not far.  There is talk of a 3 City Third Pole "Axis" of Osaka (ORA) - Tokyo (Koike Party) - Nagoya (TCA) of a non-LDP center-right opposition to the LDP even as this bloc will back LDP on Constitutional revision.  This bloc might be backed by 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru)  from within the LDP.  Remember, the reason why Koike has such bad blood with Abe is that she backed Ishiba against Abe back in the 2012 LDP Leadership race.
5) DP leadership race which will be in Sept has 蓮舫(Renhō) basically the prohibitive front runner.  She might do the DP some good in a high turnout election where she can help capture the floating vote but I doubt she has the organizational skills to beat the LDP in the traditional organizational politics.

[Babeuf]

jaichind, how likely do you think it is that Abe is able to push through constitutional revisions? Would Komeito back revision of Article 9 like they backed Abe's moves in 2014?

[jaichind]

jaichind, how likely do you think it is that Abe is able to push through constitutional revisions? Would Komeito back revision of Article 9 like they backed Abe's moves in 2014?

It is not clear but I would say that this would be difficult for Abe to pull off.  For Abe to be able to get rid of Article 9 they would have to buy off a) some of the moderate LDP factions b) KP c) ORA d) PJK and e) some pro-Revisionist independents.  Each block will demand things which will likely be inconsistent with each other.   PJK will demand a hardline revision which would turn off KP. While KP would demand compensation in terms of shift of resources toward their urban lower middle class base which in turn would create problems with ORA and some LDP factions.  ORA would demand changes to the Constitution which would de facto make Osaka a second capital which would cause problems with certain LDP factions.  All in all Abe would have to amass a large amount of political capital to get all these blocs to fall into line.  With Abeconomics  not doing so well I find it hard for Abe to get this much political capital.  One way to do this is to call a 2017 Lower House election before Abe's term of LDP President ends on the basis of Constitutional revision with a clear plan on the LDP platform to remove Article 9.  If LDP-KP win a 2/3 majority then I guess he has the mandate to go ahead with this and also win the referendum that is to follow. 

[jaichind]

Another fallout of the Upper House elections, ORA or Osaka Restoration Association (おおさか維新の会) will now rename it self Japan Restoration Association (日本維新の会).  Not sure if their official English name would be JRA or JRP (Japan Restoration Party) (which was what it was called before 2014 JRP merger with YP splinter UP to form JIP.)  The main reason was the disappointing result for ORA in the district vote outside Greater Osaka.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The main reason was the disappointing result for ORA in the district vote outside Greater Osaka.

A party with 'Osaka' in its name did poorly outside Osaka? You don't say!

This reminds me of the Lega Nord-->Noi con Salvini reinvention.

[Vega]

Logical move in both stories, in my opinion.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Logical move in both stories, in my opinion.

Agreed, actually.

Also, jaichind, can you explain how 'de facto making Osaka a second capital' would work?

[jaichind]

A party with 'Osaka' in its name did poorly outside Osaka? You don't say!

This reminds me of the Lega Nord-->Noi con Salvini reinvention.

The ORA contention was that Osaka in ORA, especially when it is written in Hiragana and not Kanji does not stand for Osaka the city but Osaka the sprite of change and reform.  It obviously did not work.  Although I think most voters know what ORA is about.  Even if ORA ran as JRA I think the result would be the same.

Also, jaichind, can you explain how 'de facto making Osaka a second capital' would work?

The original JRP/ORA position was of extreme decentralization where power are moved to local urban centers and away from the central government.  Beyond Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka is the biggest of these urban cluster regions which would mean Osaka is de facto the second capital of Japan.   The newly recreated JRA has in is platform a more simple of direct variation of this: That Osaka is made the second capital of Japan beyond Tokyo.  Such a platform pretty much reiterates that regardless of the name, JRA is a Oskaa based party.  

[jaichind]

前原 誠司(Maehara Seiji) who was the leader of DPJ in 2005-2006 will be the main center-right opponent of Renho for DP leadership.  He is actually quite hawkish on the dove-hawk/revisionist axis and most likely would back, in private, Abe's goal of removing the Article 9 in Constitutional revision.  It is expected that Renho will win.

[Vega]

前原 誠司(Maehara Seiji) who was the leader of DPJ in 2005-2006 will be the main center-right opponent of Renho for DP leadership.  He is actually quite hawkish on the dove-hawk/revisionist axis and most likely would back, in private, Abe's goal of removing the Article 9 in Constitutional revision.  It is expected that Renho will win.

I'm surprised that Maehara is in the DP, he seems to be (or was) rather ambitious, and the LDP would fit a personality like his rather well.

On a completely superficial note, though, he's 54 and looks 34, so he has that on his side. He always seemed really unique in that way.