Japan 2016 - July 10

[Vega]

It's really odd that the postal reform rebels are still around. I know the one that Alberto Fujimori ran under in 2007 folded after the 2012 election.

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I actually like the plain branding of the "Democratic Party". I don't know why they didn't keep the "of Japan" part, though.

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Would the fortunes of the Democrats be any better if they had a different leader? I know Goshi Hosono came close in the last leadership election, and he is a fair shake different than other Japanese politicians from the looks of it. Would he be doing any better?

Also, if the DP fails to make gains in the Councillors election, I assume Okada will be resigning, right?

[Vega]

Interesting piece where Aki Abe (the PM's wife) throws some cold water on the idea of amending the LDP constitution to extend his time as LDP President and thus Prime Minister.

I always found the term limit on LDP Leaders to be curious. Koizumi probably would have stayed in office for at least another 4 years had he not been hamstrung by it, and it's not like Japanese PMs are known for being in office for an elongated period of time anyway.

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Has Abe completely mothballed the idea of a double dissolution? I know you posted that he did, but I saw some stories saying he's still considering it.

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Unless there are any Latin American dictators running, nothing can top the strangeness of candidates when it came to the 2007 Councillor elections.

[Vega]

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) or Modern Weekly is a general-interest weekly magazine published in Japan which more recently have been doing more political reporting came up with a shocking projection.   It projected that if Abe called a double election the LDP will receive a significant setback and go from 291 seats in the 2014 election to 225 seats.   This with KP in the low 30s will put LDP-KP to around at most 260 seats which would be a bare majority.

That would certainly be interesting. Did they have predictions for just the House of Councillors election in the summer?

[Vega]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

This is pretty standard in traditional Chinese societies, especially in places like HK or Taiwan Province.  Whatever the wife of a prominent personality might think their job is to publicly say stuff like this.

Yeah, I know it is; I've seen it before. It gives me the willies every time.

It's even worse when a politician in North America says it.

[Vega]

I have to say that it interesting how young the candidates in the by-elections are. Could this be a trend in the Councillors election and beyond?

[Vega]

Turnout for Hokkaido 5th district by-election at 11am stands at around 3% higher than 2014 general election levels at 11am in this district.  So far this is not a good sign for LDP.

Is there any way to find results online?

[Vega]

I would say that this was a good night for the Opposition. This result was the same as 2014, but with Opposition forces combined, it shows how much can be done.

[Vega]

Green is the main color of the LDP and Black is a secondary one. Blue seems to be the main color for the Democrats.

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I think that his decline in popularity is really interesting considering how he was at one time fairly popular. It seems that it is extremely difficult to be an honest Governor of Tokyo.

Shame they didn't election Hosokawa in 2014.

[Vega]

稲田 朋美 (Inada Tomomi) who is a LDP MP and Chairwoman of the Policy Research Council of the LDP just claimed in an interview that in 2019 when the consumption tax increase is now due to take affect Abe could still be LDP President and PM.  This would mean either changing current LDP rules on reelection or have some puppet PM for a few months before Abe returns.

Having some sort of puppet serve would really just be idiotic when you can repeal the term limit instead.

[Vega]

Embattled Tokyo Governor 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) now faces two separate monitions of no confidence from ORA and JCP separately in the Tokyo city council.   For it to pass it would require 2/3 of the council must be attendence and 3/4 in attendance must vote for it.  There is talk that LDP and KP will have to make a call on how long they can back Masuzoe.  There seems to be an consensus that it is likely that LDP and KP will have no choice but to back the motion of no confiance.  In such a case Masuzoe will be gone and there will be yet another midterm election for Tokyo Governor on top of 2012 (Ishihara resigning to join national politics) and 2014 (Naoki having to resign over a money scandal).

I can't help but see this becoming more common, which is both a shame in that stability will be destroyed, but also perhaps positive in that Governors will be held to account more so than in the past - to the level that Prime Ministers are.

[Vega]

From what I understand, Masuzoe used to be rather popular before he became Governor, wasn't he? So it's really a sign of how devastating this scandal must be that he has taken such a hit.

[Vega]

I could get behind a rather unknown person, like diplomat and former Vice Minister Yabunaka Mitoji.

But Renho would be good as well, though I do hope her image isn't sullied too early.

[Vega]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) poll on support for Constitutional change has it being opposed 36/45



LDP voters are for 58/28
KP voters are 44/38
ORA voters 47/42
DP voters 18/75
JCP voters 15/80

It seems surprising that ORA voters are split down the middle on this.  It shows that the ORA vote still has a good chunk of the old center-right anti-LDP part of the pre-2012 DPJ vote base which is less hawkish but has a libertarian streak.

Who would be the oddsnon favorite to secede him? Hosono?

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Token post asking for English results web page? Thanks.

Glad to know the LDP machine is still well oiled.

[Vega]

When will we start getting results?

It's only 2:00 PM so it'll probably be a few hours.

[Vega]

I'm rather shocked that Iwaki Mitsuhide, the Justice minister, lost his seat. He apparently wasn't on the other Proportional list either.

[Vega]

I'm rather shocked that Iwaki Mitsuhide, the Justice minister, lost his seat. He apparently wasn't on the other Proportional list either.

This is because his district, 福島(Fukushima), went from a 2- member district to a 1- member district.  So back in 2010 when both he and his DP opponent won, this time around it is a 1 on 1 race with JCP backing DP.  As a result he lost.  BTW, in Upper House elections you cannot run in both the district and PR section at the same time, which you can in Lower House races.

Ah, that makes sense. I think he can still stay on as Justice minister though, as the PM can have some normal citizens in their cabinet.

[Vega]

I wonder if Iwaki will mount a comeback... perhaps running in the lower house elections? He was a pretty important member of the LDP.

[Vega]

I'm sure she'll get a lot of buzz in the international press, but I can't see her being able to do much for the party electorally.

If she does run, I'm sure she'll be virtually unopposed. Goshi Hosano is probably a secondary factor if she doesn't.

[Vega]

It seems rather odd to me that the smallest comment or gaffe can tank an opposition party. Kazuo Shii must be an extremely disciplined person given how long he's led the party (16 years!).