PA 6/PA 8

[TeePee4Prez]

The national dems will soon let you know that your only chance of winning 6 was last time. Gerlach beat Murphy in 04 by a larger margin than he won his initial term in 02. That leaves Fitzy in 8... the reason you wont beat him is because despite those polls, Fitzy is very well liked in his district. Take a few more polls and you'll see that. Not withstanding that point, the $$ the dems WOULD put in that seat is now going to Casey. HDCC will have too many open seats this time to worry about beating an incumbent. Do us all a favor and focus on a MORE LOCAL election that you can win!

Flyers, are you going to volunteer for either of these races? What district do you live in?

I live in PA 13 which borders both PA 6 and 8 and will be volunteering for both.

You said the same thing with Melissa Brown being "well liked."  Fitzpatrick vulnerabilities are oozing.  He is one of the Top 3 most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country along with Jim Gerlach who has the honor as #1.

[No One]

The problem with Melissa brown was that she had too many negative lies that stuck to her after I made that comment. But, your point is correct, and I was wrong (albeit because of the lies). I frankly dont know why Gerlach is considered vulnerable because hes not. He has distanced himself from Bush quite a bit (no, Rove/DeLay wont stick with he nor Fitzy as nobody in the districts care). Anyway, he beat Murphy by more than he initially won by (please stop ignoring this fact because this isnt the second time i have said it) He will do it again. As for fitzy, he doesn't have any considerable negatives.  He worked quite hard for Willow Grove and the base isnt even in his district - he did more than the Congresswoman whose district in which the base is located.  Gerlach and Fitzy are both good guys who actually care about their areas. People know that.
Oh, and by the way: If your candidates think the anti-bush rhetoric is going to win it for them, they are way off as people want a message and ideas - not rhetoric.

The national dems will soon let you know that your only chance of winning 6 was last time. Gerlach beat Murphy in 04 by a larger margin than he won his initial term in 02. That leaves Fitzy in 8... the reason you wont beat him is because despite those polls, Fitzy is very well liked in his district. Take a few more polls and you'll see that. Not withstanding that point, the $$ the dems WOULD put in that seat is now going to Casey. HDCC will have too many open seats this time to worry about beating an incumbent. Do us all a favor and focus on a MORE LOCAL election that you can win!

Flyers, are you going to volunteer for either of these races? What district do you live in?

I live in PA 13 which borders both PA 6 and 8 and will be volunteering for both.

You said the same thing with Melissa Brown being "well liked."  Fitzpatrick vulnerabilities are oozing.  He is one of the Top 3 most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country along with Jim Gerlach who has the honor as #1.

[TeePee4Prez]

You now convinced me this concept of putting messages prior to a quote is better.  Congrats on convincing me there however....

I still think Bush's and Santorum's negatives in this region make Gerlach and Fitzpatrick very vulnerable.  Rendell and Casey leading the Dem ticket will be more potent than Kerry.  Whle this is an off-year, this is looking like one of the most exciting off years in recent history especially in PA.  Fitzpatrick doesn't have stunning approval ratings, which are below 50%, and PA 8 quite frankly does not agree with you guys on social issues.  I won't take away the fact that Fitz is a hardworking Congressman, but his voting record is pretty right wing.  That counts for something.  I am also convinced Patrick Murphy will be the same.  Ginny Schrader would be clueless and I'd have to admit that.  I'm not saying a parking cone would beat Fitz, but Patrick Murphy is looking very promising and will do better than Ginny Schrader.  I will put this seat into tossup for now handicapping the fact Patrick Murphy has little name rec.     

As for Jim Gerlach, he is closer to Bush and Rove than you'd like to think and there are many former Gerlach voters turned off to him.  Add what I said before about Rendell/Casey on the ticket with the DeLay problems and it is very likely Gerlach will lose and at this point I am going to say he will.

The problem with Melissa brown was that she had too many negative lies that stuck to her after I made that comment. But, your point is correct, and I was wrong (albeit because of the lies). I frankly dont know why Gerlach is considered vulnerable because hes not. He has distanced himself from Bush quite a bit (no, Rove/DeLay wont stick with he nor Fitzy as nobody in the districts care). Anyway, he beat Murphy by more than he initially won by (please stop ignoring this fact because this isnt the second time i have said it) He will do it again. As for fitzy, he doesn't have any considerable negatives.  He worked quite hard for Willow Grove and the base isnt even in his district - he did more than the Congresswoman whose district in which the base is located.  Gerlach and Fitzy are both good guys who actually care about their areas. People know that.
Oh, and by the way: If your candidates think the anti-bush rhetoric is going to win it for them, they are way off as people want a message and ideas - not rhetoric.

The national dems will soon let you know that your only chance of winning 6 was last time. Gerlach beat Murphy in 04 by a larger margin than he won his initial term in 02. That leaves Fitzy in 8... the reason you wont beat him is because despite those polls, Fitzy is very well liked in his district. Take a few more polls and you'll see that. Not withstanding that point, the $$ the dems WOULD put in that seat is now going to Casey. HDCC will have too many open seats this time to worry about beating an incumbent. Do us all a favor and focus on a MORE LOCAL election that you can win!

Flyers, are you going to volunteer for either of these races? What district do you live in?

I live in PA 13 which borders both PA 6 and 8 and will be volunteering for both.

You said the same thing with Melissa Brown being "well liked."  Fitzpatrick vulnerabilities are oozing.  He is one of the Top 3 most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country along with Jim Gerlach who has the honor as #1.

[No One]

you have not taken into account that Fitzy has never campaigned in this district. He didnt have much of an organization or much of a campaign at all against ginny. he relied on ginny being a weak candidate. i would take that into account if I were you. also, bucks does agree with us on social issues.. maybe not southern bucks but central and northern bucks (the farmers) very much agree with us - they just didnt like Bush. take a trip past bensalem and you will see what i mean.
as for Gerlach, no, DeLay will not hurt gerlach at all. trust me, people do not care about Tom DeLay, they care about their congressman and they wont give two hoots if Gerlach took money from him. Ie. Tom Corbett, Joe Hoeffel, John Perzel and the list goes on... all were accused of taking money from a criminal/"bad guy" of some kind and won! People do not care about it unless their candidate is the one accused.

You now convinced me this concept of putting messages prior to a quote is better.  Congrats on convincing me there however....

I still think Bush's and Santorum's negatives in this region make Gerlach and Fitzpatrick very vulnerable.  Rendell and Casey leading the Dem ticket will be more potent than Kerry.  Whle this is an off-year, this is looking like one of the most exciting off years in recent history especially in PA.  Fitzpatrick doesn't have stunning approval ratings, which are below 50%, and PA 8 quite frankly does not agree with you guys on social issues.  I won't take away the fact that Fitz is a hardworking Congressman, but his voting record is pretty right wing.  That counts for something.  I am also convinced Patrick Murphy will be the same.  Ginny Schrader would be clueless and I'd have to admit that.  I'm not saying a parking cone would beat Fitz, but Patrick Murphy is looking very promising and will do better than Ginny Schrader.  I will put this seat into tossup for now handicapping the fact Patrick Murphy has little name rec.     

As for Jim Gerlach, he is closer to Bush and Rove than you'd like to think and there are many former Gerlach voters turned off to him.  Add what I said before about Rendell/Casey on the ticket with the DeLay problems and it is very likely Gerlach will lose and at this point I am going to say he will.

The problem with Melissa brown was that she had too many negative lies that stuck to her after I made that comment. But, your point is correct, and I was wrong (albeit because of the lies). I frankly dont know why Gerlach is considered vulnerable because hes not. He has distanced himself from Bush quite a bit (no, Rove/DeLay wont stick with he nor Fitzy as nobody in the districts care). Anyway, he beat Murphy by more than he initially won by (please stop ignoring this fact because this isnt the second time i have said it) He will do it again. As for fitzy, he doesn't have any considerable negatives.  He worked quite hard for Willow Grove and the base isnt even in his district - he did more than the Congresswoman whose district in which the base is located.  Gerlach and Fitzy are both good guys who actually care about their areas. People know that.
Oh, and by the way: If your candidates think the anti-bush rhetoric is going to win it for them, they are way off as people want a message and ideas - not rhetoric.

The national dems will soon let you know that your only chance of winning 6 was last time. Gerlach beat Murphy in 04 by a larger margin than he won his initial term in 02. That leaves Fitzy in 8... the reason you wont beat him is because despite those polls, Fitzy is very well liked in his district. Take a few more polls and you'll see that. Not withstanding that point, the $$ the dems WOULD put in that seat is now going to Casey. HDCC will have too many open seats this time to worry about beating an incumbent. Do us all a favor and focus on a MORE LOCAL election that you can win!

Flyers, are you going to volunteer for either of these races? What district do you live in?

I live in PA 13 which borders both PA 6 and 8 and will be volunteering for both.

You said the same thing with Melissa Brown being "well liked."  Fitzpatrick vulnerabilities are oozing.  He is one of the Top 3 most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country along with Jim Gerlach who has the honor as #1.

[TeePee4Prez]

Actually Central Bucks is socially liberal.  It's Lower Bucks I'm a bit worried about.  61% of the county is pro-choice.  Mind you it isn't Montco or Philly, but still higher than the state and national average.  Doylestown and New Hope along the US 202 corridor has a lot of limousine liberals who voted for Schrader.  Like it or not, Fitz is vulnerable and I really wish you continue to think he's not.

you have not taken into account that Fitzy has never campaigned in this district. He didnt have much of an organization or much of a campaign at all against ginny. he relied on ginny being a weak candidate. i would take that into account if I were you. also, bucks does agree with us on social issues.. maybe not southern bucks but central and northern bucks (the farmers) very much agree with us - they just didnt like Bush. take a trip past bensalem and you will see what i mean.
as for Gerlach, no, DeLay will not hurt gerlach at all. trust me, people do not care about Tom DeLay, they care about their congressman and they wont give two hoots if Gerlach took money from him. Ie. Tom Corbett, Joe Hoeffel, John Perzel and the list goes on... all were accused of taking money from a criminal/"bad guy" of some kind and won! People do not care about it unless their candidate is the one accused.

You now convinced me this concept of putting messages prior to a quote is better.  Congrats on convincing me there however....

I still think Bush's and Santorum's negatives in this region make Gerlach and Fitzpatrick very vulnerable.  Rendell and Casey leading the Dem ticket will be more potent than Kerry.  Whle this is an off-year, this is looking like one of the most exciting off years in recent history especially in PA.  Fitzpatrick doesn't have stunning approval ratings, which are below 50%, and PA 8 quite frankly does not agree with you guys on social issues.  I won't take away the fact that Fitz is a hardworking Congressman, but his voting record is pretty right wing.  That counts for something.  I am also convinced Patrick Murphy will be the same.  Ginny Schrader would be clueless and I'd have to admit that.  I'm not saying a parking cone would beat Fitz, but Patrick Murphy is looking very promising and will do better than Ginny Schrader.  I will put this seat into tossup for now handicapping the fact Patrick Murphy has little name rec.     

As for Jim Gerlach, he is closer to Bush and Rove than you'd like to think and there are many former Gerlach voters turned off to him.  Add what I said before about Rendell/Casey on the ticket with the DeLay problems and it is very likely Gerlach will lose and at this point I am going to say he will.

The problem with Melissa brown was that she had too many negative lies that stuck to her after I made that comment. But, your point is correct, and I was wrong (albeit because of the lies). I frankly dont know why Gerlach is considered vulnerable because hes not. He has distanced himself from Bush quite a bit (no, Rove/DeLay wont stick with he nor Fitzy as nobody in the districts care). Anyway, he beat Murphy by more than he initially won by (please stop ignoring this fact because this isnt the second time i have said it) He will do it again. As for fitzy, he doesn't have any considerable negatives.  He worked quite hard for Willow Grove and the base isnt even in his district - he did more than the Congresswoman whose district in which the base is located.  Gerlach and Fitzy are both good guys who actually care about their areas. People know that.
Oh, and by the way: If your candidates think the anti-bush rhetoric is going to win it for them, they are way off as people want a message and ideas - not rhetoric.

The national dems will soon let you know that your only chance of winning 6 was last time. Gerlach beat Murphy in 04 by a larger margin than he won his initial term in 02. That leaves Fitzy in 8... the reason you wont beat him is because despite those polls, Fitzy is very well liked in his district. Take a few more polls and you'll see that. Not withstanding that point, the $$ the dems WOULD put in that seat is now going to Casey. HDCC will have too many open seats this time to worry about beating an incumbent. Do us all a favor and focus on a MORE LOCAL election that you can win!

Flyers, are you going to volunteer for either of these races? What district do you live in?

I live in PA 13 which borders both PA 6 and 8 and will be volunteering for both.

You said the same thing with Melissa Brown being "well liked."  Fitzpatrick vulnerabilities are oozing.  He is one of the Top 3 most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country along with Jim Gerlach who has the honor as #1.

[Jake]

Please stop quoting the page.

[TeePee4Prez]

Please stop quoting the page.

YES... SIR!

[No One]

Please stop quoting the page.

YES... SIR!

haha funny flyers!!! maybe ill stop quoting too!

[TeePee4Prez]

I was being sarcastic, but he has a semi-point.

[Keystone Phil]

He won't win but...   http://www.mikein06.com/index.html

[TeePee4Prez]

He won't win but...   http://www.mikein06.com/index.html

NO WAY!!!  Lois Murphy can surely out fundraise him and that's what we need.  Mike, please go home.

[Keystone Phil]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

[TeePee4Prez]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

Damn that dude is UGLY!!!  I know it's shallow, but looks do count.  His face looks severely misshaped.  He looks cut out of a 50s sitcom.  Still going with Pat Murphy!

[Keystone Phil]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

Damn that dude is UGLY!!!  I know it's shallow, but looks do count.  His face looks severely misshaped.  He looks cut out of a 50s sitcom.  Still going with Pat Murphy!

I thought the same thing. When I am seriously debating the qualities of candidates I don't bring looks into the discussion. That doesn't decide it for me but I will admit when someone is good looking or looks deformed.

[TeePee4Prez]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

Damn that dude is UGLY!!!  I know it's shallow, but looks do count.  His face looks severely misshaped.  He looks cut out of a 50s sitcom.  Still going with Pat Murphy!

I thought the same thing. When I am seriously debating the qualities of candidates I don't bring looks into the discussion. That doesn't decide it for me but I will admit when someone is good looking or looks deformed.

Hey, looks didn't affect my vote in PA 13!  You're right, he looks deformed.  That could hurt.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey, looks didn't affect my vote in PA 13!  You're right, he looks deformed.  That could hurt.

The crybaby won't get out of the primary victorious. Murphy will be the nominee.

[nini2287]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

Wow he is ugly.  The site is also pretty amateurish as well.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hey, looks didn't affect my vote in PA 13!  You're right, he looks deformed.  That could hurt.

The crybaby won't get out of the primary victorious. Murphy will be the nominee.

Murphy is WAAAAAY too strong for Warren in this race.  Pat Murphy is getting a lot of early attention and is looking at a lock for the nomination.  It seems to be these military men are in fashion and Murphy's credentials are far superior to any opposition.

[Keystone Phil]

Lang is out; will run for State Senate - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/111805lang.htm

Murphy vs. Warren now.

[TeePee4Prez]

Lang is out; will run for State Senate - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/111805lang.htm

Murphy vs. Warren now.

Smart man!  Clears way for Murphy which Warren should follow lead.

[Smash255]

Interesting thing I noticed that I am suprised Flyers hasn't brought up (can understand why Phil would not want to post this

Rothlenberg Political Report mentions PA-6 as a Competitive Race, Cook Report labels it as a tossup.  Pa-8 is listed as lean Republican by the Cook report.  By comtrast PA-13 is listed as Solid Dem by Cook Report

[TeePee4Prez]

Interesting thing I noticed that I am suprised Flyers hasn't brought up (can understand why Phil would not want to post this

Rothlenberg Political Report mentions PA-6 as a Competitive Race, Cook Report labels it as a tossup.  Pa-8 is listed as lean Republican by the Cook report.  By comtrast PA-13 is listed as Solid Dem by Cook Report

I can agree with that.  PA-6 is all over the place in the Inquirer as being competitive.  PA-8 has a strong, but socially out of step incumbent, yet hopefully we get Patrick Murphy the nomination so we have a stronger candidate to face him.

[Keystone Phil]

Interesting thing I noticed that I am suprised Flyers hasn't brought up (can understand why Phil would not want to post this

Rothlenberg Political Report mentions PA-6 as a Competitive Race, Cook Report labels it as a tossup.  Pa-8 is listed as lean Republican by the Cook report.  By comtrast PA-13 is listed as Solid Dem by Cook Report

Uh...I have stated before that PA 6 is a competitive race but I think Gerlach will end up winning by more than he did last time for a number of reasons. PA 8 is probably alittle more than just lean Republican but no real argument here. PA 13 isn't switching without Castor so again no argument.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA 8 ANALYSIS

Red-  Lower Bucks County and NE Philly east of US 1.  Mostly working class, Democratic area.  HOWEVER, it is also heavily Catholic and leaning pro-life.  Mike Fitzpatrick did very well in this area due to his strong union ties plus the fact he is an AOH member, which there are a lot of in this area.  Ginny Schrader ran pro-choice ads in this area and it cost her a lot of votes.  Patrick Murphy is a "must nominate" for the Democrats to win these voters for he grew up in the Northeast Philadelphia portion of this area.  I coded it red for this portion will decide the outcome. 

Black-  Strongly Democratic and used largely to buffer PA 13's chances of going GOP.  Except for a small portion of Somerton, this area is very pro-choice and by all means NARAL it up!

Blue-  More libertarian-esque and a lot of "limousine liberals", but still a large portion of Enterpriser Republicans.  Homes here run $500,000+, BUT the Dems have made very good inroads picking up the Mayor's seat in Doylestown and a lot of township supervisor seats.  Heavily pro-choice and should be our winning issue here.

Not coded- Exubria and the beginning of NRA country.  Heavly GOP and sparsely populated.  Dems shouldn't spend much time here.

[socaldem]

I am very impressed by Patrick Murphy's website.  He seems to be running a very high-quality, high-energy campaign...

I am absolutely floored, meanwhile, by this murphycorps(http://www.murphy06.com/murphycorps.html)concept.  Maybe other campaigns do this, but I have not seen a concerted effort by campaigns to organize volunteers for the sake of community service.  I don't know how many people he's getting to sign up for this stuff, but it seems like a wonderful way to get publicity and to get young people involved in the campaign.

If Murphy keeps it up with his campaign tactics, I can really see him winning fairly easily, especially in what promises to be a trying environment for the PA GOP.