PA 6/PA 8

[MarkWarner08]

I think Flyers predicted a Murphy victory the whole campaign. I also did as a last minute upset prediction.

Nice call. I just checked my Nov. 6th, 2006 final House predictions spreadsheet. I had Murphy winning 50-50. But I also had Diane Farrell and Lois Murphy winning 51-49.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Flyers predicted a Murphy victory the whole campaign.

Yeah, he did.

 Don't forget Pat's secret weapon: Bill Foster.

And his other not so secret weapon: Fitz's campaign imploding.

[MarkWarner08]

I think Flyers predicted a Murphy victory the whole campaign.

Yeah, he did.

 Don't forget Pat's secret weapon: Bill Foster.

And his other not so secret weapon: Fitz's campaign imploding.

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

[Keystone Phil]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

[MarkWarner08]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

Wasn't the Gerlach campaign manager top-notch. I remember reading something about him in a Campaigns & Elections issue. He devised a strategy to drive Murphy's negatives so high that it was impossible for her to win.

[Keystone Phil]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

Wasn't the Gerlach campaign manager top-notch. I remember reading something about him in a Campaigns & Elections issue. He devised a strategy to drive Murphy's negatives so high that it was impossible for her to win.

I don't know Gerlach's campaign manager but I think I read that he was great. I comment about Fitz's campaign because I was more involved there. I did nothing for Gerlach (too far away).

[MarkWarner08]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

Wasn't the Gerlach campaign manager top-notch. I remember reading something about him in a Campaigns & Elections issue. He devised a strategy to drive Murphy's negatives so high that it was impossible for her to win.

I don't know Gerlach's campaign manager but I think I read that he was great. I comment about Fitz's campaign because I was more involved there. I did nothing for Gerlach (too far away).

I wish Fitz had won and Gerlach had lost. If I'd been in PA-08, I would've voted for Fitzpatrick. Any Republican who wins the Sierra Club's backing in a tough race is one who I'll support.

[Keystone Phil]

I wish Fitz had won and Gerlach had lost. If I'd been in PA-08, I would've voted for Fitzpatrick. Any Republican who wins the Sierra Club's backing in a tough race is one who I'll support.

Good 

[Mr.Phips]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

Wasn't the Gerlach campaign manager top-notch. I remember reading something about him in a Campaigns & Elections issue. He devised a strategy to drive Murphy's negatives so high that it was impossible for her to win.

I read that his strategy was to make Gerlach "our Congressman" and to hammer home the fact that he was more in touch with the district than Murphy. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think Flyers predicted a Murphy victory the whole campaign. I also did as a last minute upset prediction.

Nice call. I just checked my Nov. 6th, 2006 final House predictions spreadsheet. I had Murphy winning 50-50. But I also had Diane Farrell and Lois Murphy winning 51-49.

Mine had Lois Murphy winning 52%-48%, Fitzpatrick winning 51%-49%, and Farrell winning 50%-49%. 

[Keystone Phil]

I read that his strategy was to make Gerlach "our Congressman"

That would explain the saying on the signs. 

[MarkWarner08]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

Wasn't the Gerlach campaign manager top-notch. I remember reading something about him in a Campaigns & Elections issue. He devised a strategy to drive Murphy's negatives so high that it was impossible for her to win.

I read that his strategy was to make Gerlach "our Congressman" and to hammer home the fact that he was more in touch with the district than Murphy. 

He also heavily targeted Berks County. While his percentages in Mont Co. and Chester Co. slipped, he actually went up 2% in Berks. His assiduous attention to constituent services work there  helped save his seat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My real question is Does the GOP have a shot at any of these seats in the future without a heavy wave or a last minute scandle on the part of Sestak or Murphy? Are there any highly popular star candidates(state reps, state senators, sheriffs, mayors, etc) in either district that could run in 2010 or 2012. If these aren't competitive then the all the the GOP has to compete in is  the 4,10, and someday if Holden retires the 17th.

[Keystone Phil]

My real question is Does the GOP have a shot at any of these seats in the future without a heavy wave or a last minute scandle on the part of Sestak or Murphy? Are there any highly popular star candidates(state reps, state senators, sheriffs, mayors, etc) in either district that could run in 2010 or 2012. If these aren't competitive then the all the the GOP has to compete in is  the 4,10, and someday if Holden retires the 17th.

PA 8 would need a wave or a Murphy slip up. Let's see how Manion does this year. If it is a respectable showing, the GOP will keep trying but we're probably not beating Murphy unless we have a great year. Then again, the seat may be open in a few years if Murphy wants to try for the Senate (2012 if Casey doesn't run again).

Sestak is another tough one. He could be beat. Both PA 8 and PA 7 have popular State Representatives, Senators and other local officials but they all shy away from taking on these incumbents. Sestak is way more likely to screw things up for himself so I guess we have to wait. This seat should be interesting whenever it opens up (2012 could also create an opening here if Sestak wants the Senate seat) but I'd still say that it leans Dem.

The GOP has to focus on 4, 10, 11 (this year), 12 (when Murtha goes) and 17 (when Holden goes).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My real question is Does the GOP have a shot at any of these seats in the future without a heavy wave or a last minute scandle on the part of Sestak or Murphy? Are there any highly popular star candidates(state reps, state senators, sheriffs, mayors, etc) in either district that could run in 2010 or 2012. If these aren't competitive then the all the the GOP has to compete in is  the 4,10, and someday if Holden retires the 17th.

PA 8 would need a wave or a Murphy slip up. Let's see how Manion does this year. If it is a respectable showing, the GOP will keep trying but we're probably not beating Murphy unless we have a great year. Then again, the seat may be open in a few years if Murphy wants to try for the Senate (2012 if Casey doesn't run again).

Sestak is another tough one. He could be beat. Both PA 8 and PA 7 have popular State Representatives, Senators and other local officials but they all shy away from taking on these incumbents. Sestak is way more likely to screw things up for himself so I guess we have to wait. This seat should be interesting whenever it opens up (2012 could also create an opening here if Sestak wants the Senate seat) but I'd still say that it leans Dem.

The GOP has to focus on 4, 10, 11 (this year), 12 (when Murtha goes) and 17 (when Holden goes).

I am not surprised by the local officials unwillingness to challenge an incuimbent. However if the Dems continue to hold the State House of Reps then I think there will be a flurry of GOP retirements and some of them might see a better future for themselves in the US House, even if it means taking on a Patrick Murphy or Joe Sestak, Then staying in a powerless minority for several years.

That begs another question. What are the GOP's chances of retaking complete control of the Assembly? I can't find out anything about it for some reason.

Sorry for continuing to bother you with these questions Phil but I like to keep up to date with what is going on in PA.

[Sam Spade]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

[MarkWarner08]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

[Sam Spade]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

[MarkWarner08]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

An apt sports cliche: Streaks are meant to be broken.

[Mr.Phips]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

Which basically means it will be very important for Democrats to hold the state House in order to force a bipartisan, incumbent protection redistricting plan. 

[MarkWarner08]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

Which basically means it will be very important for Democrats to hold the state House in order to force a bipartisan, incumbent protection redistricting plan. 

Is Corbett still the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee? If he runs, somebody from the DGA should call up Bob Casey, Jr.

[Mr.Phips]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

Which basically means it will be very important for Democrats to hold the state House in order to force a bipartisan, incumbent protection redistricting plan. 

Is Corbett still the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee? If he runs, somebody from the DGA should call up Bob Casey, Jr.

It may be futile.  The governorship seems to shift parties every eight years no matter what.  The best thing Rendell can do is make sure the Dems hold the state House until the 2012 elections.

[MarkWarner08]

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

Which basically means it will be very important for Democrats to hold the state House in order to force a bipartisan, incumbent protection redistricting plan. 

Is Corbett still the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee? If he runs, somebody from the DGA should call up Bob Casey, Jr.

It may be futile.  The governorship seems to shift parties every eight years no matter what.  The best thing Rendell can do is make sure the Dems hold the state House until the 2012 elections.

Meh. Does fatalism have to seep into political discussions? I hear this same argument about the NC Senate race. Burr is doomed because no Senator has held that seat for more than one term since Ervin retired. Boo Hoo! If the Democrats nominate an obscure State Senator, Burr will probably
win, thus eviscerating the silly curse.

I do agree that Democrats must hold the PA State House. From what I've read, the DLCC (the campaign unit for legislative races) is prioritizing redistricting sensitive chambers. Which is why they'll be spending serious coin to flip the NV State Senate (Democrats could pick up two seats in redistricting), while the AK State Senate will probably be ignored.

[Keystone Phil]

I am not surprised by the local officials unwillingness to challenge an incuimbent. However if the Dems continue to hold the State House of Reps then I think there will be a flurry of GOP retirements and some of them might see a better future for themselves in the US House, even if it means taking on a Patrick Murphy or Joe Sestak, Then staying in a powerless minority for several years.

Well, we won't necessarily be in the minority which leads to...

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It's hard to analyze (and I actually follow this stuff)! We have a lock on the Senate but it's hard to say about the House. I give the Dems a slight advantage.

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Not a problem. I love this stuff! 

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Both sides have some vulnerable seats.

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

An apt sports cliche: Streaks are meant to be broken.

I agree but we're going to have a strong nominee in 2010.    Meehan for Governor!

[MarkWarner08]

I agree but we're going to have a strong nominee in 2010.    Meehan for Governor!

Maybe he skipped the PA-10 bid to prepare for a Gubernatorial bid. Or maybe he's the next Richard Blumenthal, who has been the "next Governor of Connecticut" for twenty years.