State Categories

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Safe GOP 65        Solid GOP 60      Likely GOP 53        Leans GOP 31        Barely GOP 47
   
Utah 6                  Texas 38             Indiana 11              Georgia 16              Ohio 18
Wyoming 3           Montana 3           Mississippi 6          North Carolina 15     Florida 29
Idaho 4                Tennessee 11       Alaska 3
West Virginia 5     Louisiana 8          South Carolina 9
Oklahoma 7                                    Arizona 11
Arkansas 6                                     Missouri 10
Nebraska 5
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Alabama 9
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3



                                                           Toss Up 48

                                                            Iowa 6
                                                            Virginia 13
                                                            Nevada 6
                                                            Colorado 9
                                                            New Hampshire 4
                                                            Wisconsin 10


Safe Dem 80                Solid Dem 40        Likely Dem 76        Leans Dem 14        Barely Dem 20

D.C. 3                          Delaware 3           New York 29           Maine 4                 Pennsylvania 20
Hawaii 4                       Maryland 10         Washington 12        Minnesota 10
Vermont 3                    Connecticut 7        New Jersey 14
Rhode Island 4             Illinois 20              Michigan 16
California 55                                            Oregon 7
Massachusetts 11                                    New Mexico 5

[This account no longer in use.]

I'd argue that Nevada and NH lean Democratic now.

[Zache]

Any reason New York is "Likely" as opposed to "Solid" or even "Safe"?

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Any reason New York is "Likely" as opposed to "Solid" or even "Safe"?

Only because I used 2014 data.  It's safe/solid though.

[Zache]

Any reason New York is "Likely" as opposed to "Solid" or even "Safe"?

Only because I used 2014 data.  It's safe/solid though.

Oh, okay. That makes sense.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

The way I see it, Trump needs to pick up FL, OH, VA, and one more toss up state.

[Virginiá]

I would say Wisconsin belongs in Leans Democratic. I'm tempted to also say Pennsylvania belongs there as well, but I dunno.

People can argue Bush almost won Wisconsin, but Obama also won North Carolina by a small margin (like how Bush lost Wisconsin by a small margin) and we aren't calling North Carolina a complete toss-up. Almost winning doesn't negate all the other times Republicans lost by pretty healthy margins. I think if anything, it just says Bush (or the public mood at the time) was a better fit than most for Wisconsin.

Also, I don't think you should just use (or heavily rely on) 2014 data here. Presidential elections have some relatively different electorates and midterms, with their low turnout, almost always tend to favor the minority party.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I would say Wisconsin belongs in Leans Democratic. I'm tempted to also say Pennsylvania belongs there as well, but I dunno.

People can argue Bush almost won Wisconsin, but Obama also won North Carolina by a small margin (like how Bush lost Wisconsin by a small margin) and we aren't calling North Carolina a complete toss-up. Almost winning doesn't negate all the other times Republicans lost by pretty healthy margins. I think if anything, it just says Bush (or the public mood at the time) was a better fit than most for Wisconsin.

Also, I don't think you should just use (or heavily rely on) 2014 data here. Presidential elections have some relatively different electorates and midterms, with their low turnout, almost always tend to favor the minority party.

2014 data went against my better judgment.  As for WI and NC I went by distance from center which NC has yet to be within 5 points of center.  2008 just seems like too long ago.

[Kingpoleon]

But... but... MN is more Democratic than Michigan!!!!!

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

But... but... MN is more Democratic than Michigan!!!!!

Not based on distance from center recently.  It has the longest Democratic streak I believe but in terms of winnability it's slightly to the right of MI.  Sure it's possible a candidate could win MI before MN, but not as likely.

[YaBoyNY]

But... but... MN is more Democratic than Michigan!!!!!

I like how you're using this one thread that's based off one user's opinion as irrefutable proof that somehow the common consensus is incorrect.

I can see now why most of your scenarios are heaping piles of sh!t.

[DS0816]

But... but... MN is more Democratic than Michigan!!!!!

Not based on distance from center recently.  It has the longest Democratic streak I believe but in terms of winnability it's slightly to the right of MI.  Sure it's possible a candidate could win MI before MN, but not as likely.

Minnesota, which can be a little unpredictable with its perceived partisan voting index, has carried Republican only once since after the 1950s. That was in 1972 when Richard Nixon was re-elected with 49 states. (Only District of Columbia and Massachusetts carried for George McGovern.) And Minnesota, in a tie with Oregon, has the 12th best record historically in having carried for presidential winners. Link: @ https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222186.msg4783698#msg4783698 .

Any reason New York is "Likely" as opposed to "Solid" or even "Safe"?

Only because I used 2014 data.  It's safe/solid though.

Midterm elections are not comparable to presidential elections. If they were, we could have discussions about the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial pickups in Solid Republican presidential states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming (and all 2002 Democratic pickup gubernatorial winners won re-election in 2006 with stronger margins in a wave election for that party). The midterm elections see close to a 40-percent decline of the percentage of voters who participate voting in presidential elections. So, if you're counting on data from a midterm, it's misguided especially given that, since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, the only midterm years in which the White House party was the one which won overall gains in U.S. Senate and U.S. House seats were in 1934, 1998, and 2002. Those midterm elections' exit polls represent those who participated in those elections and, of course, were skewed toward the White House opposition party (they were the ones who more conspicuously turned out for participation); and, with that in mind, they don't represent the overall voters who participate in presidential elections.

I would say Wisconsin belongs in Leans Democratic. I'm tempted to also say Pennsylvania belongs there as well, but I dunno.

People can argue Bush almost won Wisconsin, but Obama also won North Carolina by a small margin (like how Bush lost Wisconsin by a small margin) and we aren't calling North Carolina a complete toss-up. Almost winning doesn't negate all the other times Republicans lost by pretty healthy margins. I think if anything, it just says Bush (or the public mood at the time) was a better fit than most for Wisconsin.

Also, I don't think you should just use (or heavily rely on) 2014 data here. Presidential elections have some relatively different electorates and midterms, with their low turnout, almost always tend to favor the minority party.

The PVI margins in Wisconsin are not as predictable as, say, Michigan. So, I don't see Wisconsin as Lean Democratic. With the fact that it got on board for Michael Dukakis in 1988; that it hasn't carried Republican since Ronald Reagan was re-elected with 49 states in 1984; I see the state as Solid Democratic for now. With North Carolina, the trendline has taken shape to move that state away from Strong Republican and more and more closer to the national numbers. (It won't surprise me if North Carolina, like Ohio, ends up within five points of the percentage margin in the U.S. Popular Vote in Election 2016. And since 1980, the states have agreed in every election except 2012. They tend not to be far from each other in their margins. Many elections saw them five points or less in spread.) North Carolina has transformed into what people would call a "battleground" state (and I would go further to say it's the next bellwether state).

[DS0816]

I posted this on August 30, 2013. And I will re-submit it here.…



@ https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=177270.msg3850722#msg3850722

Re: Where do the states fall?

RED: Republican (139)
LIGHT RED: Lean Republican (52)
YELLOW: Bellwether/Battleground/Competitive (84)
LIGHT BLUE: Lean Democratic (21)
BLUE: Democratic (242)

Those with "Leans" may become flipped by the opposing party's prevailing candidate if a national margin of victory were to be strong enough to pull in ones with such opposing tilt. In an election won the party with that tilt…the state will carry.

This map is partly assuming that both parties will continue their stupid "competitive" campaigns of only focusing on perceived "battlegrounds." Since after the 1980s, the most states won a given presidential election were the 32 carried with first election, in 1992, by Bill Clinton.

Note: On the prevailing side, since the 1990s, Republicans have averaged 9 electoral votes (for George W. Bush) with all states carried; Democrats have averaged 11 (Clinton) and 13 and 12 (Barack Obama) electoral votes with all states carried. On the losing side, Republicans averaged 9 (George Bush), 8 (Bob Dole and Mitt Romney), and 7 (John McCain) electoral votes with all states carried; Democrats averaged 13 electoral votes (Al Gore and John Kerry) with all states carried.




That was posted by me more than two years ago. I can revise it to include Iowa and New Hampshire, because of their similar margins (in recent elections); but, I thought, back in 2013, that 2016 should play out before making any such change. And I still think it would be a good idea to let 2016 play out. I have North Carolina as the next bellwether state because, after 2000 (in which it was 13 points more Republican than the nation), it has been trending sharply away from the Republicans and coming closer to the bellwether category: in 2004, it was 10 points more Republican; in 2008, when Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of the state, it was 7 points more Republican; in 2012, when Mitt Romney won a Republican pickup of the state, it was 6 points (+5.88) more Republican (and its men were slightly above Democratic support than the national numbers).

[Clark Kent]

Safe Dem (D+20)

Hawaii (D+31)
New York (D+27)
Maryland (D+25)
Vermont (D+25)

Strong Dem (D+15)

California (D+19)
Rhode Island (D+17)
Massachusetts (D+16)
Delaware (D+15)

Likely Dem (D+10)

Illinois (D+13)
New Jersey (D+13)
Connecticut (D+12)

Lean Dem (D+5)

Washington (D+9)
Maine (D+8)
Oregon (D+7)
Michigan (D+5)
New Mexico (D+5)

Slight Dem (D+3)

Minnesota (D+4)
Wisconsin (D+3)

Tossup:

Nevada (D+2)
Pennsylvania (D+2)
Iowa (D+1)
Colorado (D+1)
New Hampshire (EVEN)
Virginia (EVEN)
Ohio (R+1)

Slight GOP (R+3)

Florida (R+3)

Lean GOP (R+5)

North Carolina (R+6)

Likely GOP (R+10)

Arizona (R+12)
Georgia (R+13)
Missouri (R+13)
Indiana (R+14)

Strong GOP (R+15)

Montana (R+16)
Alaska (R+16)
South Carolina (R+18)

Safe GOP (R+20)

South Dakota (R+20)
North Dakota (R+20)
Texas (R+20)
Mississippi (R+22)
Tennessee (R+24)
Kansas (R+24)
Nebraska (R+25)
Louisiana (R+26)
Kentucky (R+26)
Arkansas (R+27)
West Virginia (R+27)
Idaho (R+34)
Alabama (R+37)
Oklahoma (R+40)
Wyoming (R+43)
Utah (R+51)

[ElectionsGuy]

Derek/barfbag? Is that you?