IA/NH-Fox: Trump leads both states by double digits

[Mr. Morden]

Fox News polls of Iowa and NH, conducted Jan. 18-21:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/22/fox-news-poll-iowa-presidential-primary/

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/22/fox-news-poll-new-hampshire-presidential-primary/

Iowa
Trump 34%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 12%
Carson 7%
Paul 6%
Bush 4%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Gilmore 0%

New Hampshire
Trump 31%
Cruz 14%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 9%
Bush 7%
Christie 7%
Paul 5%
Carson 5%
Fiorina 3%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Santorum 0%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

UGH

[Lief 🗽]

Wow huge momentum for Trump! Cruz was ahead in the Fox poll here two weeks ago!!

[madelka]

This election is over. Hillary Clinton is going to be the next president of the United States of America. Thank you, Republicans!

[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s weakest group in both states is Evangelicals.  Though in NH, he still leads among Evangelicals--just by a narrower margin than among other demos.  In NH he leads among all groups.  In Iowa, Cruz leads among Evangelicals and “very conservative” voters, while Trump leads among everyone else.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Trump wins both, I will be D-FL or I-FL for the rest of the election cycle.

[Torie]

Yes, the ethanol thing is tanking Cruz in Iowa and I suspect some of the establishment vote might go to Trump to make sure Cruz loses. The plan is then to turn on Trump full blast (lots of ads that he is really but an ersatz conservative, which clips of him expressing Hillary love). I think the decision really has been made that even if that backfires, and Trump cannot be stopped (obviously it is not at all clear delving into his past matters, because many find Trump the tacking opportunist as just what the doctor ordered), he's better than Cruz. Meanwhile the Pub party is in deep, deep trouble. It's fissures that were papered over, are now opening up into crevasses, generating some plate tectonic shifts. Meanwhile the Dems are flirting without the idea of becoming a true leftist party. Lots of folks at RRH seem to be thinking of bailing to Bloomberg if he runs,  if it is a Trump versus Sanders race. The race this year is beginning to be about as bizarre and unpredictable as the 1968 race was, and that one was wild.

[Mr. Morden]

In the Iowa poll, they also asked this question…

Is there any candidate who you would refuse to vote for in the general election?

Trump 20%
Bush 14%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 8%
Paul 7%
Carson 5%
Fiorina 5%
Huckabee 5%
Christie 5%
Kasich 5%
Santorum 5%
Gilmore 4% (Gilmore confirmed as most electable GOP candidate)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yes, the ethanol thing is tanking Cruz in Iowa and I suspect some of the establishment vote might go to Trump to make sure Cruz loses. The plan is then to turn on Trump full blast (lots of ads that he is really but an ersatz conservative, which clips of him expressing Hillary love). I think the decision really has been made that even if that backfires, and Trump cannot be stopped (obviously it is not at all clear delving into his past matters, because many find Trump the tacking opportunist as just what the doctor ordered), he's better than Cruz. Meanwhile the Pub party is in deep, deep trouble. It's fissures that were papered over, are now opening up into crevasses, generating some plate tectonic shifts. Meanwhile the Dems are flirting without the idea of becoming a true leftist party. Lots of folks at RRH seem to be thinking of bailing to Bloomberg if he runs,  if it is a Trump versus Sanders race. The race this year is beginning to be about as bizarre and unpredictable as the 1968 race was, and that one was wild.

The Republican party is dead if Trump is nominated....no way are minorities and other groups going to just let the party who nominated a man who flat out attacked them get away with it.

[Torie]

In the Iowa poll, they also asked this question…

Is there any candidate who you would refuse to vote for in the general election?

Trump 20%
Bush 14%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 8%
Paul 7%
Carson 5%
Fiorina 5%
Huckabee 5%
Christie 5%
Kasich 5%
Santorum 5%
Gilmore 4% (Gilmore confirmed as most electable GOP candidate)

LOL. The poll didn't have a "not sure" category for this one?

[Torie]

Yes, the ethanol thing is tanking Cruz in Iowa and I suspect some of the establishment vote might go to Trump to make sure Cruz loses. The plan is then to turn on Trump full blast (lots of ads that he is really but an ersatz conservative, which clips of him expressing Hillary love). I think the decision really has been made that even if that backfires, and Trump cannot be stopped (obviously it is not at all clear delving into his past matters, because many find Trump the tacking opportunist as just what the doctor ordered), he's better than Cruz. Meanwhile the Pub party is in deep, deep trouble. It's fissures that were papered over, are now opening up into crevasses, generating some plate tectonic shifts. Meanwhile the Dems are flirting without the idea of becoming a true leftist party. Lots of folks at RRH seem to be thinking of bailing to Bloomberg if he runs,  if it is a Trump versus Sanders race. The race this year is beginning to be about as bizarre and unpredictable as the 1968 race was, and that one was wild.

The Republican party is dead if Trump is nominated....no way are minorities and other groups going to just let the party who nominated a man who flat out attacked them get away with it.

Well, what do you think of a Trump v Sanders v Bloomberg race? Wouldn't that one be fun?

[Mr. Morden]

In the Iowa poll, they also asked this question…

Is there any candidate who you would refuse to vote for in the general election?

Trump 20%
Bush 14%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 8%
Paul 7%
Carson 5%
Fiorina 5%
Huckabee 5%
Christie 5%
Kasich 5%
Santorum 5%
Gilmore 4% (Gilmore confirmed as most electable GOP candidate)

LOL. The poll didn't have a "not sure" category for this one?

48% of GOP caucus-goers say they'd support any of the GOP candidates in the general election.  The remaining respondents named at least one of the GOP candidates as someone they wouldn't support in the GE.  Though some of them named more than one person, so it appears to add up to more than 100%.

[Eraserhead]

I'm tempted to say it's over but a last minute surge out of nowhere is always possible (especially in Iowa)...

Anyway, where are the Democratic numbers?

[yankeesfan]

I wouldn't be suprised if Trump supporters respond more to polls.  He's a candidate that mentions the importance of polls in every one of his speeches.  We will see.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Did I not say the Palin endorsement combined with Cruz's Canadian citizenship would DESTORY him?  De-friggin-STORY! 

Trump is riding a tidal wave.  You people do not understand the GOP electorate.

[Torie]

Did I not say the Palin endorsement combined with Cruz's Canadian citizenship would DESTORY him?  De-friggin-STORY!  

Trump is riding a tidal wave.  You people do not understand the GOP electorate.

I think it is the ethanol, Branstad, Grassley thing more than that myself. It's a twin hit of charity begins at home, and an establishment signal, that job one is to knock Cruz out of the number one slot, as opposed to upping the establishment Pubs percentages by a few points.

[Skye]

Wow. Trump demolishes everything.

[OkThen]

If the poll was conducted from the 18th-21st and Palin endorsed on the 19th, I wonder if there was a spike of support for Trump right after the endorsement.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If the poll was conducted from the 18th-21st and Palin endorsed on the 19th, I wonder if there was a spike of support for Trump right after the endorsement.

Undoubtedly. 

[Eraserhead]

Give us some Democratic digits, Fox!

[EliteLX]

Confirms CNN numbers.

It's officially over, folks. The Republican primary voters have failed their party and just set in stone a Hillary Clinton presidency. What a discouraging day.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Give us some Democratic digits, Fox!

Ugh.  They are true buttholes.  I need confirmation of today's HIGHLY RESPECTED YouGov/CBS poll with its sound methodology. 

[Badger]

What is the projected turnout for this polling model?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Trump is all but assured of the Republican nomination.  This does not however mean Hillary Clinton is all but assured to be the 45th President of the United States.  In fact, I would say the Donald would start the general election campaign with a slight advantage over Hillary.

[Ronnie]

Confirms CNN numbers.

It's officially over, folks. The Republican primary voters have failed their party and just set in stone a Hillary Clinton presidency. What a discouraging day.

Hey, at least we'll have a fun GE campaign.