Rate Arizona in a Clinton vs. Trump election

[TDAS04]

What do you think?

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R, but much closer to Tossup than Likely R.

[Ljube]

TRUMP will win it, but it will be close.

[Nyvin]

It'll probably be within 5 points, but Trump would most likely win.

[Crumpets]

Lean R. Clinton could possibly flip it, but she wouldn't choose to waste any of her resources there, unless it looked like it might be necessary (i.e. if she's polling terribly in Pennsylvania, but tied in Arizona)

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R. Except I think it'll be closer to Likely than a Toss. If Joe Arpaio can keep getting re-elected in Maricopa county, only a point to the right of the state, than I think Trump has the ability to win solidly too. Latino turnout and numbers will be at a record high, but the whites around the state will stay a stubborn 60% R or so. Not to mention how hyped Arizona gets as a state Democrats can potentially win, only to be so disappointingly consistent every time.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Safe Trump. If the 2010 immigration law and Obama's reaction was enough to swing whites heavily towards Romney in 2012, just imagine how much of  swing Trump will get among them with his promise of a wall and deportations. Trump will probably get 70% of the white male vote.

[defe07]

Tossup if Hillary gets Julian Castro to get out the Hispanic vote. Without him, Trump should win it by 5%+.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

THE BLAXICASIANS will CARRY it for HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

[Kingpoleon]

Toss-up to Tilt R, just like Colorado.

[Xing]

Probably still Likely R. Democrats really struggle in Arizona, even against deeply flawed Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is foolsgold for Colorado, and along with NV. Trump will win by six.

[WVdemocrat]

Lean R, but much closer to Tossup than Likely R.

Exactly this.

[Maxwell]

I'd say Likely Trump. Whatever minor gains that are made from Hispanics, will be lost thanks to angry whites turning out even more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It has a high concentration of retired people and vets like John McCain, Palin says that Trump is too a Vet, thats the difference. But, Trump has an immigration issue in FL, CO & NV

[HillOfANight]

but the whites around the state will stay a stubborn 60% R or so.

Actually, if whites are only 60% R, that could flip the state.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2015/08/27/on-the-prospects-of-a-blue-arizona/

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Hispanics leaned more to McCain than Obama relative to nation in 2008 in Arizona, but quickly moved D, especially after Romney's self deportation. Trump is only going to accelerate that trend.

If Clinton can bring whites back to their historical norm of 40% D, she stands a decent chance of winning here, with the exploding Hispanic population, and their continued migration to Ds.

[Ljube]

but the whites around the state will stay a stubborn 60% R or so.

Actually, if whites are only 60% R, that could flip the state.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2015/08/27/on-the-prospects-of-a-blue-arizona/

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Hispanics leaned more to McCain than Obama relative to nation in 2008 in Arizona, but quickly moved D, especially after Romney's self deportation. Trump is only going to accelerate that trend.

If Clinton can bring whites back to their historical norm of 40% D, she stands a decent chance of winning here, with the exploding Hispanic population, and their continued migration to Ds.

Just why do you believe Clinton can get more whites than Obama?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Toss-up, but I'd put my bets on Hillary.

[DavidB.]

Lean R, but much closer to Tossup than Likely R.

[Virginiá]

Just why do you believe Clinton can get more whites than Obama?

Democrats have averaged 41% -/+ for a long time. 39% in 2012 was likely due to the slow recovery from the recession and other Obama-related factors. Just because a Democrat pulls in that number once doesn't mean it's the new ceiling. If it were, then Democrats would be in the low 30s by now seeing as Mondale got something like 36% in 1984. Or we could go with Clinton's 39% in one of his elections?

[Ljube]

Just why do you believe Clinton can get more whites than Obama?

Democrats have averaged 41% -/+ for a long time. 39% in 2012 was likely due to the slow recovery from the recession and other Obama-related factors. Just because a Democrat pulls in that number once doesn't mean it's the new ceiling. If it were, then Democrats would be in the low 30s by now seeing as Mondale got something like 36% in 1984. Or we could go with Clinton's 39% in one of his elections?

Democratic policies are generally anti-white and in particular against working class whites. No way Hillary can get more whites against TRUMP if Obama couldn't against an enemy of the working class - Romney.

[JMT]

Lean R, but it'll be close. Trump would win in the end. Hillary wouldn't need to put resources into this state, she'd fight to win swing states. If Hillary wins Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, all possibilities with a normal GOP nominee, and should be pretty easy with Trump as the nominee, then she'll win the election. And there's plenty other swing states left for backup, like NH, Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado, I could see Clinton winning some, if not all, of these states against Trump as well. There would be no need for Clinton to invest in Arizona, so I don't think she will. So Trump wins AZ in all likelihood.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems didnt field a strong Senate challenge, here, given defference to McCain. McCain will win and so will Trump, around six points

[Ljube]

Dems didnt field a strong Senate challenge, here, given defference to McCain. McCain will win and so will Trump, around six points

A more pertinent question here would be: will TRUMP and McCain reconcile?

[Virginiá]

Democratic policies are generally anti-white and in particular against working class whites. No way Hillary can get more whites against TRUMP if Obama couldn't against an enemy of the working class - Romney.

As I said, the recession likely played a role in that loss of support for Obama. The economy has a very pronounced effect on voters and with a filibuster-crazy GOP in the Senate and a majority in the House (2011+), Obama had no way to enact any additional substantial programs to speed up the recovery, and thus voters did what they always do - They blame the party in the White House for the state of the country.

Also, There are a lot of older folks who remember good years under Bill and that will have some influence, as will the thought of the nation's first woman president (who also happens to be white).

But more importantly, your theory here rests on a shaky foundation. You think Trump won't lose any white voters due to his nasty campaign and policies? If you think he won't, then you are lying to yourself.