Nepal Politcs and Discussion

[Intell]

So after the disastrous earthquake, Nepal finally made a constitution, however after Modi interfering and protesting by an ethnic group in the terai region of nepal, called Madheshis (ethnically indians), there is a oil blockade and a shortage of power and electricity in the country, slowing it's growth as a country.

[DavidB.]

Could you perhaps elaborate a bit on the political consequences of the new constitution? Not in regard to the blockade, but in terms of what changes it will bring about in Nepal's internal politics.

[Intell]

Could you perhaps elaborate a bit on the political consequences of the new constitution? Not in regard to the blockade, but in terms of what changes it will bring about in Nepal's internal politics.

The new constitution establishes Nepal as a secular country, which has gotten protests from Hindu nationalists which say that the country should be Hindu as that is what the majority of the country is, however all of those people who are calling for the establishment of a Hindu kingdom are mostly all from bauhn (brahmin) caste, which is the top social standing in Nepal.

The constitution will also have consequences of putting further strains upon the relation of (ethnic) Nepalese and ethnic Indians (Madheshi) people, who believe they are not getting enough representation in parliament and the fact that they will not get full citizenship as some of them were born in India. Most Nepalese people are glad for the new constitution, regardless of caste (apart from some maoist hardliners) however for the Madheshi people they want to change the constitution, which gets a lot of Nepalese angry, as finally they have a constitution and the Nepalese people put a hands over their ear like there is nothing wrong with the constitution.

This constitution has also changed relationship between Indian, Nepal and China quite drastically. Nepal and India, have had a close relationship since who knows when, which has been changed drastically over this year. While there were always some far-left wingers and some monarchists who didn't like India, now if you ask every (ethnic) Nepalese they will say they hate India and Modi particularly. The blockade which has slumped growth and limited electricity supplies through strikes by Madheshi and further propelled by the Indian government, have caused a fervor with India, which has allowed China to take stage in the politics of Nepal, with them bringing oil and supplies to Nepal as India has stopped. Another thing this has done in sub-continent relations is Nepal's relations with Muslims and Pakistan, which though wasn't bad, wasn't good either, this blockade allows Pakistan, along with China to establish a relation with Nepal against India.

Now in internal politics, there is huge disappointment with the parties in their dealing of the situation, which could  lead to a vacuum for a nationalistic party to have the chances to grow which is anti-India and anti-madheshi. Nepali Congress has and will continue to go down in favorably because of this as Congress has always been an internationalistic contury, well (most) inter-nationalistic anyways, which is bad in a time where Nepalese people are anti-west and especially anti-India, becoming more nationalistic and NC's relation with India is not doing them any favors in that regards. Also it is known that Susil Koirala (head of NC) stood for parliament president due to Modi, which has caused anger against the party as a stooge for India. This will lead in the growth of the communist parties, and an even more of a rebound for the monarchist parties. There will probably be an increase of the maoist vote, the MLA vote will be shifted to the maoists, however they will remain neutral due to some congress voters going to MLA, some congress voters will probably go to vote for the monarchists due to dissatissfaction with politicians. Whenever Nepal has an election it will elect a do-nothing communist government of MLA and mahbadi (maoistis).

[DavidB.]

Thanks for this, very insightful analysis! Seems like India is screwing up bigtime in its handling of the situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the hell is Modi hoping to gain in alienating Nepal so much and pushing it into China's arms? I know he's a horrendous failure, but that reaches new levels of stupidity.

Fascinating thread anyway. Nepal is one of the countries whose politics I'd really like to know more about.

[MaxQue]

Because Modi cares more about his religion and his ethnic group than about India.

[Sbane]

I honestly don't know much about the situation, so perhaps I shouldn't comment, but it looks like Modi is making a huge mistake here. I guess the question is, is the constitution in effect a gerrymander against the madheshi people living in the Terai?

I don't understand why anyone would be against Nepal being a secular republic. It's not like there is a huge religious divide there. It's a more Hindu country than India......

[Intell]

I honestly don't know much about the situation, so perhaps I shouldn't comment, but it looks like Modi is making a huge mistake here. I guess the question is, is the constitution in effect a gerrymander against the madheshi people living in the Terai?

I don't understand why anyone would be against Nepal being a secular republic. It's not like there is a huge religious divide there. It's a more Hindu country than India......

Well sort off, Madheshi people want their own ethnic state of Madheshi people and is majority Madheshi, with just the terai, flat plains region excluding hilly regions. They also don't get guaranteed representation and quotas equivalent to their ethnic % of population.

Hindi Nationalists be Hindu Nationalists and Hindi Monarchists be Hindu Monarchists I guess for people opposing a secular republic.

[Simfan34]

Yay monarchists!  Go Rastriya Prajatantra Party!

That is all I have to say.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do the monarchists want to restore Gyanendra? I thought he and his son were pretty unpopular people?

[Intell]

Yay monarchists!  Go Rastriya Prajatantra Party!

That is all I have to say.

Rastriya Prajanta Party (Nepal), which is the more nationalistic monarchistic party who want re-establishment of the monarchy. This is different to Rastriya Prajatantra Party which split from the former monarchist party, Rastriya Prajanta Party (Nepal), due to disagreements to the monarchy, and them later on dis-liking Gyanendra and his son. The Rastriya Prajantra Party is know just a center-right liberal-conservative party and have accepted the republic of nepal.

[Intell]

Do the monarchists want to restore Gyanendra? I thought he and his son were pretty unpopular people?

Well they are dis-liked by the public, with about support about 15% of the population, and 7% of the public vote parties affiliated or formerly affiliated with the monarchy, so the monarchists represent a small proportion of the population, or they support the concept of the monarchy while opposing it's current leaders.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Where is BEEP BOOP MODI IS NEW REAGAN to tell us how wonderful this idiot is

[Intell]

Where is BEEP BOOP MODI IS NEW REAGAN to tell us how wonderful this idiot is

^

[Intell]

http://www.inseconline.org/linkedfile/Bill%20Of%20Constitution%202015%20Sept.pdf

Full Nepalese constitution in English.

[Intell]

2013 Constituent Election Map

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Nepal_Constituent%20Assembly%20Election%202013%20under%20FPTP.pdf

2013 Constituent Election Map by Caste

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Nepal_Constituent%20Assembly%20Election%202013%20under%20FPTP_breakdown%20of%20elected%20candidates.pdf

2008 Nepalese Constituent Assembly Map

[YaBoyNY]

Woah.

I never realized how successful Communist parties are in Nepal.

[Intell]

Woah.

I never realized how successful Communist parties are in Nepal.

Well when your Prime Minister and President are communist, when the Maoists once got the highest % of the vote, and in the most recet elections got about 44% of the combined vote, and in 08' about 55% of the vote, Nepal is a fertile ground for Communist Parties.

[aross]

What are the major differences between the Marxist-Leninists and the Maoists? Going by the maps, it doesn't seem to be a regional or ethnic thing.

[Hash]

The CPN (UML) is hardly communist.

[Famous Mortimer]

What are the major differences between the Marxist-Leninists and the Maoists? Going by the maps, it doesn't seem to be a regional or ethnic thing.

The Maoists fought a war against the government for years. The Marxist-Leninists have mostly been electoral.

[aross]

The CPN (UML) is hardly communist.

Is the Nepali Congress affected by a similar case of sinistrisme?

[Intell]

https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/breaking-nepal-makes-first-amendment-of-its-constitution/

Nepal Ammended it's constitution to give further rights through proportional representation to Madheshi and other ethnic minorities, Madheshi's aren't backing down until they get their own (ethnic) state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/breaking-nepal-makes-first-amendment-of-its-constitution/

Nepal Ammended it's constitution to give further rights through proportional representation to Madheshi and other ethnic minorities, Madheshi's aren't backing down until they get their own (ethnic) state.

Is it geographically possible to carve out a homogeneously (say, >80%) Madheshi State?

[Intell]

https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/breaking-nepal-makes-first-amendment-of-its-constitution/

Nepal Ammended it's constitution to give further rights through proportional representation to Madheshi and other ethnic minorities, Madheshi's aren't backing down until they get their own (ethnic) state.

Is it geographically possible to carve out a homogeneously (say, >80%) Madheshi State?

Not unless you split Nepalese districts themselves, you can get a >40 or >50 madheshi state though.