How will the Trumpster do among Hispanics?

[Mike Thick]

There was probably another thread about this at some point, but what the heck. Inspired by the one about AAs. Discuss!

[ag]

There will be some variation geographically and by community, but, in general, very poorly. Between 15 and 20% would be my guess.

[Virginiá]

< 20% (is pretty generous if you ask me)

Ok, Trump fans, who will be the first one to say 40%+ ?

[Ljube]

Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

[Mike Thick]

< 20% (is pretty generous if you ask me)

Ok, Trump fans, who will be the first one to say 40%+ ?

OVER 9000% BECAUSE MUH BLUE COLLAR VOTERS HIGH ENERGY WINNER AMERICA

[Virginiá]

Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

Clearly. Hispanics were upset he didn't go far enough with his self-deportation proposal and repudiated him at the polls. Trump did away with the half-measures and went all the way with full deportation of millions, and they will love him for it.

Hispanics simply wanted a man who would have the balls to deport their family and friends, and Trump has delivered.

[Ljube]

I don't mind, but you Democrats should re-examine your attitude. By underestimating TRUMP you are making it easy for him to beat you.

[Ljube]

Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

Clearly. Hispanics were upset he didn't go far enough with his self-deportation proposal and repudiated him at the polls. Trump did away with the half-measures and went all the way with full deportation of millions, and they will love him for it.

Hispanics simply wanted a man who would have the balls to deport their family and friends, and Trump has delivered.

Hispanics like his economic message. Those hispanics that didn't like Romney's self-deportation, won't like TRUMP's deportation, but he will improve among the working class hispanics.

[Maxwell]

Probably about the same as Romney did.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I did find it interesting that on one PPP poll I checked out, Hispanics were the group that most approved of his Muslim ban.

Still, not well.

[Bismarck]

I'd say similar to Romney, unless he makes more outrageous comments. Trump will run to the middle for the general and will connect to Hispanic voters economically more than Romney to make up for his strong border policies.

[ag]

Do not forget that there is such a thing as Spanish-language media. The more working-class Hispanics will also get a greater proportion of their news and commentary from Jorge Ramos.

[Virginiá]

Do not forget that there is such a thing as Spanish-language media. The more working-class Hispanics will also get a greater proportion of their news and commentary from Jorge Ramos.

On top of the fact that working-class Hispanics are already the most Democratic-leaning part of the Hispanic electorate.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

[Ljube]

Do not forget that there is such a thing as Spanish-language media. The more working-class Hispanics will also get a greater proportion of their news and commentary from Jorge Ramos.

On top of the fact that working-class Hispanics are probably the most Democratic-leaning part of the Hispanic electorate.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

That's why I said 30+%. Only a small improvement compared to Romney.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Very, very not good.  It's like people forget that his announcement speech.  That did happen, ya know.

[ag]

Do not forget that there is such a thing as Spanish-language media. The more working-class Hispanics will also get a greater proportion of their news and commentary from Jorge Ramos.

On top of the fact that working-class Hispanics are probably the most Democratic-leaning part of the Hispanic electorate.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

That's why I said 30+%. Only a small improvement compared to Romney.

I suggest you go out campaigning door to door in a working-class Hispanic neighborhood. You might be somewhat quickly disabused.

[Simfan34]

Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

Okay, can you explain to me why this would happen?

[Ljube]

Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

Okay, can you explain to me why this would happen?

I've already explained. but let me repeat.

1) Romney's self-deportation is same as TRUMP's deportation. No essential difference. Possibly, TRUMP's deportation will be more acceptable once he explains it in the GE. So, no loss for TRUMP.
2) Romney as the vulture capitalist was hated by hispanic working class. TRUMP will talk about many hispanic jobs he has created and how his policies will benefit hispanic workin gclass. Gain for TRUMP.
3) Obama was beloved by hispanics. Hillary is too, but to a lesser extent. Small gain for TRUMP.

[Asian Nazi]

Probably about the same, maybe a little worse, but turnout will be much higher.

[ag]

Obama has never been beloved by Hispanics - if anything he was, and is, mildly distrusted (his deportation records are not viewed favorable at all). It is just that, increasingly, even a generic Republican is viewed as an outright hostile option.

Romney was not basing his campaign on an anti-Hispanic prejudice. His self-deportaiton nonsense was just an awkward moment in the campaign and he never showed any gusto in pushing it. He was not viewed as any more hostile than just a generic Republican.

Trump is something else here. With his comments he has gone far beyond the anti-migrant rhetoric. He is widely perceived as somebody who is basing his entire campaign on mobilizing anti-Hispanic prejudice.  He is already pretty much poisonous in the community. We are at a point where they are about to start scaring kids with the guy´s name. Those comments about Mexican rapists ("and some decent men") will not be forgotten or forgiven. I am pretty damn sure they will be on the Spanish-language news continuously till the GE day.

Add to this, that he is running a pretty ruthless primary campaign against not merely a Mexican (Jeb Bush) but also two Cubans (Cruz and Rubio). Those funny anti-Canadian comments are very easy to interpret as something else. Few Hispanic people will believe it is anything other than a dog whistle. If somebody as far removed from things Hispanic as Ted Cruz can be treated like this, it basically means that not even a Cuban is safe anymore: no matter how white he is, or how much of a conservative patriotic American he is. Cubans have been the stronghold of Hispanic Republicanism and he is making even them feel the pressure. Of course, Cubans will stay more Republican than others even if Trump is nominated, but there will be damage done even in that quarter.

[Ljube]

Obama has never been beloved by Hispanics - if anything he was, and is, mildly distrusted (his deportation records are not viewed favorable at all). It is just that, increasingly, even a generic Republican is viewed as an outright hostile option.

Romney was not basing his campaign on an anti-Hispanic prejudice. His self-deportaiton nonsense was just an awkward moment in the campaign and he never showed any gusto in pushing it. He was not viewed as any more hostile than just a generic Republican.

Trump is something else here. With his comments he has gone far beyond the anti-migrant rhetoric. He is widely perceived as somebody who is basing his entire campaign on mobilizing anti-Hispanic prejudice.  He is already pretty much poisonous in the community. We are at a point where they are about to start scaring kids with the guy´s name. Those comments about Mexican rapists ("and some decent men") will not be forgotten or forgiven. I am pretty damn sure they will be on the Spanish-language news continuously till the GE day.

Add to this, that he is running a pretty ruthless primary campaign against not merely a Mexican (Jeb Bush) but also two Cubans (Cruz and Rubio). Those funny anti-Canadian comments are very easy to interpret as something else. Few Hispanic people will believe it is anything other than a dog whistle. If somebody as far removed from things Hispanic as Ted Cruz can be treated like this, it basically means that not even a Cuban is safe anymore: no matter how white he is, or how much of a conservative patriotic American he is. Cubans have been the stronghold of Hispanic Republicanism and he is making even them feel the pressure. Of course, Cubans will stay more Republican than others even if Trump is nominated, but there will be damage done even in that quarter.

I think you are projecting your wishes. But that's OK.

In the end, the people will vote in their best interest. If they think they will be better served by a Democrat, they will vote Democrat. But TRUMP's economic policies will offer a real alternative.

Bottom line, we need to see.

[DavidB.]

I think you are projecting your wishes. But that's OK.

In the end, the people will vote in their best interest. If they think they will be better served by a Democrat, they will vote Democrat. But TRUMP's economic policies will offer a real alternative.

Bottom line, we need to see.

You're trolling. It's as if you are saying that European Muslims could be inclined to vote for radical right-wing parties because their economic agenda might fit the needs of working-class people. Even if that would truly be the case, you're ignoring the fact that these parties derive their entire popularity from their anti-Muslim stance -- so of course Muslims are not going to vote for these parties. Similarly, Trump has become popular by exploiting anti-immigration sentiments, more specifically negative sentiments related to Hispanic immigrants. You don't really have to be an Einstein to know that this has turned off most Hispanics to the point that many of them will be likely to vote for anyone but Trump, regardless of Trump's economic views. So of course Trump is less popular than Romney among Hispanics.

[ag]

Obama has never been beloved by Hispanics - if anything he was, and is, mildly distrusted (his deportation records are not viewed favorable at all). It is just that, increasingly, even a generic Republican is viewed as an outright hostile option.

Romney was not basing his campaign on an anti-Hispanic prejudice. His self-deportaiton nonsense was just an awkward moment in the campaign and he never showed any gusto in pushing it. He was not viewed as any more hostile than just a generic Republican.

Trump is something else here. With his comments he has gone far beyond the anti-migrant rhetoric. He is widely perceived as somebody who is basing his entire campaign on mobilizing anti-Hispanic prejudice.  He is already pretty much poisonous in the community. We are at a point where they are about to start scaring kids with the guy´s name. Those comments about Mexican rapists ("and some decent men") will not be forgotten or forgiven. I am pretty damn sure they will be on the Spanish-language news continuously till the GE day.

Add to this, that he is running a pretty ruthless primary campaign against not merely a Mexican (Jeb Bush) but also two Cubans (Cruz and Rubio). Those funny anti-Canadian comments are very easy to interpret as something else. Few Hispanic people will believe it is anything other than a dog whistle. If somebody as far removed from things Hispanic as Ted Cruz can be treated like this, it basically means that not even a Cuban is safe anymore: no matter how white he is, or how much of a conservative patriotic American he is. Cubans have been the stronghold of Hispanic Republicanism and he is making even them feel the pressure. Of course, Cubans will stay more Republican than others even if Trump is nominated, but there will be damage done even in that quarter.

I think you are projecting your wishes. But that's OK.

In the end, the people will vote in their best interest. If they think they will be better served by a Democrat, they will vote Democrat. But TRUMP's economic policies will offer a real alternative.

Bottom line, we need to see.

Aside from the fact that I do not think much of Trump economic policies (I do not believe, he has seriously thought of any), expecting to find many Hispanics who would think that voting for Trump is in their interest is like expecting Jews to support Henry Ford back in the 1920s (no matter how many Jews he employed in his plants). 

Mind it, I do not even think that Trump is personally particularly anti-Hispanic. He is a good marketer, and he figured out that there is a market in the US for a fascist demagogue. So, he created a product, and he is selling it right now. He may very well attract to Republican primaries enough people who like that particular product. Unlike Ford, he is not likely to be sincere in his prejudice: fascism is but a campaign tool for him. But, unfortunately, it has requried him to seriously offend a lot of people who are inessential in the primary. And certain things are rarely forgiven.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Better than Romney for sure.
Above 30%.

Okay, can you explain to me why this would happen?

I've already explained. but let me repeat.

1) Romney's self-deportation is same as TRUMP's deportation. No essential difference. Possibly, TRUMP's deportation will be more acceptable once he explains it in the GE. So, no loss for TRUMP.
2) Romney as the vulture capitalist was hated by hispanic working class. TRUMP will talk about many hispanic jobs he has created and how his policies will benefit hispanic workin gclass. Gain for TRUMP.
3) Obama was beloved by hispanics. Hillary is too, but to a lesser extent. Small gain for TRUMP.

Hillary won Hispanics in the 2008 primaries. She won at least three states (CA, AZ, NM) while losing the white vote to Obama.

[Ljube]

I think you are projecting your wishes. But that's OK.

In the end, the people will vote in their best interest. If they think they will be better served by a Democrat, they will vote Democrat. But TRUMP's economic policies will offer a real alternative.

Bottom line, we need to see.

You're trolling. It's as if you are saying that European Muslims could be inclined to vote for radical right-wing parties because their economic agenda might fit the needs of working-class people. Even if that would truly be the case, you're ignoring the fact that these parties derive their entire popularity from their anti-Muslim stance -- so of course Muslims are not going to vote for these parties. Similarly, Trump has become popular by exploiting anti-immigration sentiments, more specifically negative sentiments related to Hispanic immigrants. You don't really have to be an Einstein to know that this has turned off most Hispanics to the point that many of them will be likely to vote for anyone but Trump, regardless of Trump's economic views. So of course Trump is less popular than Romney among Hispanics.

My argument is that those hispanics who are offended by TRUMP's talk are already not likely to vote Pub, so let's try to avoid counting them twice.

Hispanics who voted Romney will probably vote TRUMP this time.