Poll: Does TRUMP win every state in the primaries?

[Oakvale]

Starting to think this is the most likely scenario - a TRUMP sweep.

[RI]

NOTA

[Lief 🗽]

I think even if he sweeps the first four states he still loses some of the Super Tuesday states (TX to Cruz) plus I think some establishment hack like Rubio will prance to victory in the Puerto Rico primary (though I guess you only asked about "states").

[weixiaobao]

He will lose at least Utah.

[pho]

If Trump wins Iowa, he'll win 45/50 states. Not sure he could beat Cruz in Texas.

[Oakvale]

You guys are all assuming that Ted isn't dead and Marco hasn't pranced into oblivion by the time they lose badly in South Carolina.

[°Leprechaun]

NOTA

Obviously NOTA.
lol, to the idea that he could win every state, since eventually it will narrow down, and his ceiling is 30%-40% nationally
He probably has a at least of 50% chance of winning the nomination only to lose in the general. His negatives are too high, and most people don't want him to be president.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

NOTA

Obviously NOTA.
lol, to the idea that he could win every state, since eventually it will narrow down, and his ceiling is 30%-40% nationally
He probably has a at least of 50% chance of winning the nomination only to lose in the general. His negatives are too high, and most people don't want him to be president.

People keep saying this outright lie, which is completely laughable. Every poll says the same thing. For example, the WSJ:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And this is from December, before Cruz's fall. I'm dying to see how much Trump would lead by now. Even so, the thought of it being a 2-way race is pretty far-fetched. A 3-way finish as usual is far likelier and Trump leads every single one with generally over 40% with the others trailing by double digits.

I'm not guaranteeing Trump wins in Utah and Texas and what not, but the thought of a Trump ceiling being less than a majority nationally is impossible to rationalize at this point.

He started off trailing Bush Head-to-head, then Carson, then Rubio, then Cruz. And now Hillary. We'll see how he positions himself.

e: The most recent one I can recall was a poll of NC by PPP: Trump leads Jebra 59-29, Cruz 49-41, Rubio 52-37, and Cruz-Rubio 3-way 43-27-18. This is right at the start of Cruz collapsing, so I don't think that can really be factored in.

[Vosem]

NOTA. Even in an overwhelming Trump victory scenario, a few states will still fall to his opponents. The only precedent for a non-incumbent sweeping all states is in a two-way race; in open fields like this, even in the biggest landslides (see Kerry '04), a few states still fall by the wayside.

[Figueira]

NOTA. He'll win IA, NH, and the nomination, but he'll probably lose a few states here and there, especially if the establishment unites behind one non-Trump candidate.

[Holmes]

Texas, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and some of the contests in American territories are possibilities for him to lose. As well as weird caucus states like Colorado and North Dakota.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

NOTA. Even in an overwhelming Trump victory scenario, a few states will still fall to his opponents. The only precedent for a non-incumbent sweeping all states is in a two-way race; in open fields like this, even in the biggest landslides (see Kerry '04), a few states still fall by the wayside.

This. I think even in a best-case scenario for Trump he probably loses Hawaii and Utah, as well as the non-states of DC and Puerto Rico.

[Torie]

The options are rather silly really. I don't see one for example that says that Trump will win Iowa, and NH, and some other states, but end up not getting the nomination.

[This account no longer in use.]

I don't agree with any of these options. I believe that Trump will lose IA to Cruz, lose NH to whoever the establishment candidate of the week is, and then win SC. The nomination will be wide open heading into Super Tuesday.

[Maxwell]

Rubio probably wins Utah, maybe.

[President Johnson]

He may loose Utah or so... but I think he'll win Iowa and then just run the table.

[°Leprechaun]

NOTA

Obviously NOTA.
lol, to the idea that he could win every state, since eventually it will narrow down, and his ceiling is 30%-40% nationally
He probably has a at least of 50% chance of winning the nomination only to lose in the general. His negatives are too high, and most people don't want him to be president.

People keep saying this outright lie, which is completely laughable. Every poll says the same thing. For example, the WSJ:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And this is from December, before Cruz's fall. I'm dying to see how much Trump would lead by now. Even so, the thought of it being a 2-way race is pretty far-fetched. A 3-way finish as usual is far likelier and Trump leads every single one with generally over 40% with the others trailing by double digits.

I'm not guaranteeing Trump wins in Utah and Texas and what not, but the thought of a Trump ceiling being less than a majority nationally is impossible to rationalize at this point.

He started off trailing Bush Head-to-head, then Carson, then Rubio, then Cruz. And now Hillary. We'll see how he positions himself.

e: The most recent one I can recall was a poll of NC by PPP: Trump leads Jebra 59-29, Cruz 49-41, Rubio 52-37, and Cruz-Rubio 3-way 43-27-18. This is right at the start of Cruz collapsing, so I don't think that can really be factored in.

I'm just saying given the fact that he is well below 50%, the idea that he will win every state after candidates drop out, especially given the
fact that he isn't ahead in every state even now, is highly unlikely. He may win the nomination, and currently may have a better chance than
any other candidate. It is possible that a number of candidates won't drop out. If that happens, he could wrap it up earlier than expected.
A lot depends on Cruz and Rubio and whether candidates like Kasich and Bush stay in the race.

[°Leprechaun]

I also think that he will lose the general election even if he gets the nomination.

[Broken System]

Iowa and New Hampshire might possibly be Trump's two weakest states in the country. If he wins both, he secured the nomination. If he loses both, his supporters scatter and he has no chance. If he wins only one, we are going to have quite the primary season ahead of us.

[IceSpear]

It's possible, but I think political gravity is going to be too much to overcome. I think some candidate is going to surge in SC as a backlash against a Trump coronation, kind of like they did in 2012 with Romney.

[°Leprechaun]

Cruz can easily win Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If he wins Iowa, he's unstoppable

[madelka]

No.

[Oakvale]

Well, the dirty tricks in Iowa stole it for Cruz but I'm optimistic TRUMP's win in New Hampshire will propel him to victory in South Carolina and on to the nomination.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Funny how the "wishful thinking option" suddenly became the most plausible one, isn't it? How fast things change...