Who would Bloomberg siphon votes from?
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  Who would Bloomberg siphon votes from?
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Author Topic: Who would Bloomberg siphon votes from?  (Read 1766 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« on: January 25, 2016, 07:47:11 PM »

He says his purpose would be to make sure Trump is not elected, but I'm afraid an independent run by the former New York mayor will in fact hand the keys of the White House to Donald Trump by taking votes away from the Democratic nominee.  Is that a far-fetched viewpoint?
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cxs018
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2016, 07:47:48 PM »

No. I feel like most Republicans outside the TRUMP echo chamber would never vote for him.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2016, 08:04:35 PM »

More Republicans are dissatisfied with Trump then Democrats are with Sanders.  Bloomberg also seems positioned to do well with right leaning educated whites who are one of Trump's weaknesses in the GE.

One of Sanders' big weaknesses within the Democratic party are with minorities, I don't see Bloomberg appealing to them.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2016, 08:38:12 PM »

More from Clinton or Sanders.  Clinton the crook or Bernie a bridge too far economically.  Bloomy's entry helps Trump.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2016, 08:40:02 PM »

I would guesstimate (not a good strategy Tongue) that Bloomberg's votes would be 1/3 Clinton and 2/3 Trump in that matchup, but it would be flipped if Sanders were the nominee.
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2016, 09:00:10 PM »

Bloomberg would mainly take voters who would vote for Clinton over Trump but not for Sanders over Trump. 
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2016, 09:17:56 PM »

It's only one poll, but it's recent (January 14-17), has a massive sample size (4,060 registered voters), and has a very small margin of error (2%).

Two Way Race:

Clinton — 44%
Trump — 42%

Trump — Clinton — Bloomberg:

Trump — 37%
Clinton — 36%
Bloomberg — 13%

This shows a five percentage point decline for Trump and a eight percentage point decline for Clinton.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/01/new-poll-could-bloomberg-win/
Crosstabs link on this one is incorrect; it goes to the wrong poll.



Again, only one poll, this one with a smaller sample size (1,439 registered voters) and a larger margin or error (3%) but slightly more recent (January 21-24). No date for a two way race on this one.

Sanders — Trump — Bloomberg:

Sanders — 35%
Trump — 34%
Bloomberg — 12%

The thing is all of these are in the margin of error.

http://morningconsult.com/2016/01/poll-bloomberg-vs-sanders-vs-trump/
http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/160103_crosstabs_sanders_v1_KD.pdf



The info for all the other candidates looks about the same, I can put it on here too if you guys want. Briefly, Clinton beats Cruz and Rubio in a three-way matchup and so does Sanders (by larger margins).
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Horsemask
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2016, 09:20:33 PM »

He says his purpose would be to make sure Trump is not elected, but I'm afraid an independent run by the former New York mayor will in fact hand the keys of the White House to Donald Trump by taking votes away from the Democratic nominee.  Is that a far-fetched viewpoint?

Not at all, in fact I think it is 100% accurate.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2016, 10:03:38 PM »

I think the sort of Republicans whose votes Bloomberg would attract would disproportionately be in Democratic states. He might have a decent showing amongst upper-middle class Northeast Republicans, maybe in California, don't know about the Pacific Northwest (I suspect such Republicans, outside of Eastern OR and WA, are more libertarian-leaning), but that wouldn't really change the dynamic. Likewise, I think "Bloomberg Democrats" would likely be the sort of Democrat one imagines would be a Republican-leaner if that party was more moderate. Or European-style liberal.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2016, 10:11:27 PM »

Very Serious People.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2016, 10:15:18 PM »

My only gut hunch is that there are more dissatisfied Republican voters than dissatisfied Democrat voters, but who he gets more votes from would be very close.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2016, 10:30:38 PM »

Moderate Democrats and Moderate Heroes
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Bismarck
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2016, 10:35:21 PM »

I would say he would primarily hurt democrats in blue states and republicans in red states with some exceptions.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2016, 11:38:26 PM »

Pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-immigration, pro-gun control, nanny stater.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2016, 02:15:33 AM »

The thing Republicans have going for them in three way with Trump as the nominee is many of the voters that could be lost to Bloomberg have already left the party. Meanwhile, the Democrats have eaten up a lot of formerly Republican demographics who would like Bloomberg. there are more Democrats with similar views to Bloomberg than there are Republicans, probably by a factor of 2-1 and nearly all of them are Clinton supporters. Middle and upper middle class, fiscally moderate and socially liberal, strong on defense and hate guns.

So Bloomberg essentially wipes out the GOP's problem with upscale, secular suburban voters by attracting them to his third place campaign, meanwhile Trump solves at lot of the party problem with working and lower middle class voters, particular those of a secular mind, like no prior candidate can. And Bloomberg is easily painted as an out of touch elitist, essentially limiting his appeal beyond a narrow group of voters, who would most likely break heavily for Clinton.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2016, 02:26:20 AM »

Dems. Very few Republicans will vote for him once they learn about his anti-gun advocacy. Very few Democrats will either, but he'll probably get a few numbskulls that think Sanders is too extremist or Hillary is too "partisan and divisive." The main thing driving his 5% of the vote or so will be independents.
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