KY-Sen: Jim Gray running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Takes away from NH, Pa & OH, that Dems want to concentrate on, Rand Paul is safe.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Paul is safe. By the time the GOP establishment has been tarring and feathering Clinton for three
months from the convention to the election, her presence at the top of the ticket will be as toxic for KY Dems as Obama's was in 2012.

Also, Rand Paul is a popular senator. Popular senators are difficult to dislodge even in waves. He can probably afford to ignore his opponents much like Dick Durbin was able to largely ignore his opponent, Jim Oberweis, until about a month before the election, when he started running ads.

And even the description above vastly understates how safe Senator Paul is.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, Rand Paul is a popular senator.

Hahaha. No.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

If Kentucky was a more competitive state federally, Rand would lose. The only factor that makes Rand safe is blind partisanship by its voters.

His approvals have tanked, he only has $100,000 in his Senate war chest. He'd be a goner in a state even remotely purple.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Also, Rand Paul is a popular senator.

Hahaha. No.

You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.

Uh, I've lived in Kentucky for almost 43 years.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, how does Rand Paul get away with calling himself the liberty candidate when he supports unconstitutional "right-to-work" laws?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.

Uh, I've lived in Kentucky for almost 43 years.

And it seems that your understanding of KY politics is from 43 years ago.  Most of my friends still live in Kentucky and so does my immediate family.  They have a completely different view of what is going on than you do.

Kentucky is a Conservative state.  The KDP was very impressive, holding on to power as long as it did, but the times they are a changin'.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, how does Rand Paul get away with calling himself the liberty candidate when he supports unconstitutional "right-to-work" laws?

I'm sorry, but you don't get to just throw around "unconstitutional" at any law you don't like. Right to Work laws exist in plenty of states, and the one that was struck down in Indiana was struck down based on a provision in Indiana's Constitution, not the U.S. Constitution.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, how does Rand Paul get away with calling himself the liberty candidate when he supports unconstitutional "right-to-work" laws?

I'm sorry, but you don't get to just throw around "unconstitutional" at any law you don't like. Right to Work laws exist in plenty of states, and the one that was struck down in Indiana was struck down based on a provision in Indiana's Constitution, not the U.S. Constitution.

Doesn't the Constitution forbid impairment of contracts?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.

Uh, I've lived in Kentucky for almost 43 years.

And it seems that your understanding of KY politics is from 43 years ago.  Most of my friends still live in Kentucky and so does my immediate family.  They have a completely different view of what is going on than you do.

Kentucky is a Conservative state.  The KDP was very impressive, holding on to power as long as it did, but the times they are a changin'.

Potential confirmation bias?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, how does Rand Paul get away with calling himself the liberty candidate when he supports unconstitutional "right-to-work" laws?

I'm sorry, but you don't get to just throw around "unconstitutional" at any law you don't like. Right to Work laws exist in plenty of states, and the one that was struck down in Indiana was struck down based on a provision in Indiana's Constitution, not the U.S. Constitution.

Doesn't the Constitution forbid impairment of contracts?

Uh...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_Clause

So, yeah, an outright ban on unions wouldn't pass muster, but right-to-work laws, from my understanding, generally don't ban unions, and just prohibit making joining one (and/or paying its dues) a condition of employment. The intention of the law is to preserve the worker's right to choose where they create a contract of employment - in direct negotiation with the employer or through the "middle man" (union). So it doesn't act as a true prohibition on making a contract about anything. Yeah, you could argue that allowing employees to refuse to pay union dues impacts the union's ability to exist for other workers, or that sometimes workers not part of the union still receive benefits that were gained by the union, but there are obvious counterarguments of 1) people who don't want to be part of a union are usually those who don't need its benefits (i.e. seasonal employees, college students still on parents' insurance, and etc.), so the union really shouldn't need to collect funds from them anyways, 2) that it forces people to buy a 'service' that is not directly needed for doing the actual job they were hired to do, and 3) that the contract clause itself was intended to ensure paying of debts, not anything to do with any sort of work.

So, yeah, succeeding here would be a huge use of the crap "constitution is a living document" argument. And even if you got that to work, there's still the fact that this clause definitely doesn't inhibit the federal government from passing such a law, which the next republican administration will probably do anyways. (I have little confidence that they'll keep the filibuster around very long, and some centrist democrats might be willing to vote for it in any case.)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.

Uh, I've lived in Kentucky for almost 43 years.

And it seems that your understanding of KY politics is from 43 years ago.  Most of my friends still live in Kentucky and so does my immediate family.  They have a completely different view of what is going on than you do.

Kentucky is a Conservative state.  The KDP was very impressive, holding on to power as long as it did, but the times they are a changin'.

Potential confirmation bias?

Those are national polls. The people of Iowa's opinion of him does not change the fact that Bandit is completely wrong about Kentucky politics.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

You're understanding of Kentucky politics is hilarious.

Uh, I've lived in Kentucky for almost 43 years.

And it seems that your understanding of KY politics is from 43 years ago.  Most of my friends still live in Kentucky and so does my immediate family.  They have a completely different view of what is going on than you do.

Kentucky is a Conservative state.  The KDP was very impressive, holding on to power as long as it did, but the times they are a changin'.

Potential confirmation bias?

Those are national polls. The people of Iowa's opinion of him does not change the fact that Bandit is completely wrong about Kentucky politics.

Personally, I don't think it involves a lot of wizardry to infer that his approval ratings are dropping in Kentucky, emulating the national polls.

But don't get me wrong though, I still think Rand is in a safe seat.

[Edit]: Plus, I agree with you about taking Bandit's Kentucky analysis with a barrel of salt.

[ElectionsGuy]

As far as I know, he was decently popular before the presidential campaign and whatever popularity deficit he now has was because of the presidential campaign, which he can make up in coming months.

[Miles]

^ Of course. It's gonna be a Randslide!

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

^ Of course. It's gonna be a Randslide!

Boooo